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  • DAY2SVR: Day 2 Convective Outlook

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:35:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 100535
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 100532

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of a few tornadoes and
    damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of North Carolina,
    Virginia, and southeast Maryland Sunday afternoon and evening. A
    brief tornado or two may occur over portions of the lower Colorado
    Valley Sunday morning, with sporadic occurrences of severe wind
    gusts possible into the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday
    afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    A mid/upper-level low over KY and TN Sunday morning is forecast to
    evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Mid-Atlantic by
    Sunday night. That system will be preceded by a focused corridor of
    height falls and a belt of 45-55+ kt southwesterly flow in the
    midlevels, which will overspread the Carolinas and southern
    Mid-Atlantic during the day. While the primary surface low will
    remain displaced to the northwest of the warm sector, secondary
    cyclogenesis is forecast during the afternoon over central VA at the
    junction of a cool front/trough advancing east from the Blue Ridge
    and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic.

    Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will weaken while
    accelerating from southern CA into the Great Basin within a belt of
    50-60 kt midlevel flow. The associated surface circulation/low will
    likewise develop from southern CA into northern UT by Sunday
    evening.


    ...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

    A 40-45 kt low-level jet will persist over the Piedmont and Coastal
    Plain, enhancing the poleward transport of a moist boundary layer, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Sunday within the
    expanding warm sector with lingering clouds and areas of
    precipitation limiting daytime heating and resultant destabilization
    at many locations. Nonetheless, a moist and at least marginally
    unstable air mass will coincide with strengthening low-level and
    deep-layer shear, which may support transient supercells with the
    threat for a brief tornado or two and/or strong wind gusts spreading
    from the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

    A higher-probability risk for sustained supercells capable of a few
    tornadoes and damaging winds may materialize by afternoon into
    evening from portions of central and eastern NC into south-central
    into southeast VA, where the 00Z REFS and HREF guidance indicates a
    corridor of locally stronger instability (SBCAPE up to 1000-1250
    J/kg). Those areas have been upgraded to 5% tornado and 15% wind
    probabilities and a related Level-2/Slight Risk.


    ...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin and central Rockies...


    A low-level moisture plume (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 50s to
    mid-upper 60s) originating from the Gulf of CA will reside over the
    lower-CO Valley Sunday morning, with REFS and HREF guidance
    indicating SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Relatively strong vertical
    shear, aided by the low-level mass response to the remnant Rachel
    circulation, will be more than sufficient for supercells and bowing
    structures capable of isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
    tornado or two over the lower-CO Valley Sunday morning.

    As mentioned in the synopsis, the system will weaken through the
    day, leading to greater uncertainty in the extent of any associated
    severe weather threat during the afternoon into evening. That said,
    corridors of modest instability are expected to develop across
    portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, which combined
    with relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will be supportive of
    widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 17:03:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 101703
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 101701

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing gusty
    winds and a tornado or two will be possible across parts of the
    Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Additional strong storms are expected across
    parts of the Southwest and Great Basin.

    ...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic...

    Strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region as the remnants of
    Isaias merge with upper troughing from the Ohio Valley to the
    Southeast. The surface low is expected to be over the central
    Appalachians Sunday morning, and will shift east/northeast across
    the Mid-Atlantic through early Monday. A surface front will extend
    south of the low and shift east across the region. Within the
    pre-frontal warm sector, a very moist airmass will be in place.
    Showers and cloudiness are expected across much of the area, and
    lapse rates will remain poor, limiting widespread stronger
    destabilization. However, a corridor of around 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
    may develop from eastern/central NC into VA, with more limited
    destabilization expected across the broader region.

    Given the strong flow field associated with the
    remnant/post-tropical system, transient supercell features could
    occur in one or more pre-frontal bands of convection. Isolated
    strong to severe gusts will be possible, along with a tornado or
    two.

    ...Southwest/Great Basin vicinity...

    Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Lower CO Valley
    to the Great Basin/central Rockies as an upper trough slowly digs
    and shifts east across the Pacific coast. The remnants of prior
    tropical storm Rachel will partially be responsible for enhancement
    of midlevel flow, and for modest boundary layer moisture across the
    Lower CO Valley. This system is expected to gradually weaken as it
    shifts northeast toward the Great Basin/central Rockies through the
    period.

    Pockets of modest destabilization amid favorable vertical shear will
    support bands of convection. Some transient supercell features will
    be possible. Given favorable shear and strong background flow, a few
    strong gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. The northeast
    extent of severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. Instability
    will wane with northward extent, but strong deep-layer flow may
    continue to support gusty winds with convective showers and isolated thunderstorms into parts of UT and western CO.

    ..Leitman.. 10/10/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:57:30 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 110457
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 110455

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to
    the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses
    through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA
    through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from
    those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to
    translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper
    Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night.
    At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE
    will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or
    early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.


    ...Upper Midwest...

    A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on
    Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately
    unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the
    surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are
    expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the
    northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent
    preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected
    to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into
    night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally
    less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one
    inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the
    marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective
    bulk shear.


    ...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin...

    Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is
    expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms
    Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night.
    Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential;
    however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently
    steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a
    few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the
    strongest updrafts.

    ..Mead.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:05:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 111705
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 111703

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

    ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

    An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central
    High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of
    mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an
    increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening
    from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will
    shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging
    east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm
    front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern
    Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north
    of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and
    stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling
    aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
    supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with
    stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across
    northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during
    the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is
    expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across
    the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.

    ...Southwest/Great Basin...

    Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support
    scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer
    southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant
    trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though
    some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.

    ...Southern High Plains...

    A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline
    across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and
    west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak
    instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty
    outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due
    to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.

    ..Leitman.. 10/11/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 05:20:12 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 120519
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 120517

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1217 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
    winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
    Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
    More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
    mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low will progress through the Great Basin toward the
    central Rockies/Four Corners with a downstream belt of enhanced
    mid/upper-level winds stretching from the southern Rockies through
    the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Within that airstream, a
    short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
    Northeast, while a more subtle impulse translates from the southern
    Rockies into the Upper Midwest.

    At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the Great
    Lakes into the Northeast with a trailing front stretching through
    the southern Great Lakes and southern IA into central or southwest
    KS, where it will link with a secondary surface low. Dryline will
    extend south from the KS low to along the TX-NM border by late
    afternoon or early evening.


    ...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

    Level-2/Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities have been extended
    to the St. Joseph and Kansas City, MO vicinities in this forecast
    update to account for greater severe storm potential in a favorable
    CAPE-shear parameter space.

    Southerly low-level winds will maintain a moist boundary layer
    within the warm sector with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low-mid 70s
    F. While midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the
    moist environment coupled with daytime heating will contribute to a
    moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
    J/kg. Slight height falls aloft combined with daytime heating and
    convergence along the surface boundaries are expected to eliminate
    remaining capping, yielding thunderstorm development by mid
    afternoon initially from the TX and OK Panhandles into central KS.
    Subsequent storm development is anticipated by late afternoon into
    evening farther northeast along the front into the lower-MO Valley.
    A more isolated wind and hail threat could spread into portions of
    southern IA and IL Tuesday evening and night. Finally, a separate
    round of strong to severe storms appears possible Tuesday night into
    early Wednesday over portions of southwest TX and the Permian Basin.

    Within the level-2/Slight Risk area, vertically veering wind
    profiles with 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells as
    the initial storm mode with large hail being the primary hazard,
    both along and to the north of the front. There is some model signal
    that the KS segment of the front may tend to surge south during the
    afternoon into evening, which would suggest the potential for a
    relatively quick transition to a more outflow-dominant storm mode
    and an associated damaging wind threat. Tornado potential will be
    conditional on supercell storm modes persisting into evening when
    the low-level jet and associated near-ground shear increase.


    ...New York...

    Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday within a
    zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
    the short-wave trough and surface low. Lingering clouds and areas of precipitation are likely to inhibit air mass destabilization,
    especially with eastward extent into the Hudson Valley. However,
    where cloud breaks can occur, the presence of boundary-layer
    dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to modest MLCAPE up to
    500-750 J/kg by afternoon. On the condition that surface-based
    storms can develop and become sustained, the existence of a strongly
    sheared kinematic environment (particularly in the low levels) would
    favor supercells capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds.
    This forecast update will maintain level-1/Marginal Risk
    probabilities due to uncertainties in the extent of air mass
    destabilization.

    ..Mead.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 17:01:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 121700
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 121658

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
    winds appear possible over portions of the central and southern
    Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon into night.
    More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the
    mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

    ...Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

    An upper low and attendant trough will migrate east across the
    Southwest on Tuesday, allowing a band of enhanced southwesterly
    mid/upper flow to overspread the region. At the surface, a weak lee
    low and surface trough will develop from western KS through far west
    TX. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper
    Midwest southwestward through northern KS. This boundary will sag
    south and east through the period. Southerly low-level flow across
    the warm sector between these features will maintain mid 60s to low
    70s F dewpoints across much of the southern Plains into KS and the
    Lower MO Valley. While midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
    modest across the Plains, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s will
    support moderate destabilization of the very moist airmass, with
    MLCAPE of 1250-2000 J/kg common from parts of northwest TX into the
    Lower MO Valley.

    Capping is expected to erode by mid to late afternoon, and isolated
    to scattered convection is expected by 00z near the triple point and
    northeast along the cold front into the Lower MO Valley. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough across
    portions of western TX during the evening as a southwesterly
    low-level jet strengthens. Vertically veering wind profiles and 40+
    kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial supercells
    capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Where
    low-level SRH is maximized near the triple point and surface front,
    a tornado or two also could occur. As the low-level jet increases
    and expands northward overnight, additional thunderstorm development
    is expected along and north of the surface front from the Lower MO
    Valley into northern IL. This activity may tend to be elevated on
    the cool side of the surface boundary and pose a risk for marginal
    hail and gusty winds. If convection along the surface can maintain
    near-surface based character, damaging wind potential could be
    greater across parts of MO/IL, but this scenario is uncertain.

    ...Western NY...

    An upper shortwave trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes
    to the Northeast on Tuesday. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase
    across the Lower Great Lakes vicinity as this occurs, and a surface
    low will spread eastward across the region. Ahead of an
    eastward-developing cold front, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints
    are forecast. While a moist airmass will reside across the region,
    early day clouds and showers/thunderstorms will result in
    questionable destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few strong thunderstorms could develop
    within the moist and strongly sheared environment, posing a risk of
    locally gusty winds.

    ..Leitman.. 10/12/2026

    $$
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 05:17:36 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 130517
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 130515

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE
    UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
    are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark
    Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
    Wednesday afternoon and evening.

    ...Synopsis...

    An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is
    forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High
    Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low,
    a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies
    into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in
    the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of
    convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley
    to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
    south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into
    portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front
    over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat
    north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the
    central Plains.


    ...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

    Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
    Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm
    advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal
    low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints
    in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air
    mass will likely support the continuation of showers and
    thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe
    of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating
    may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon
    where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization
    process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing
    for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an
    environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during
    the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
    primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of
    severe hail being in southwest TX.


    ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

    Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
    60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
    instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late
    afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent
    preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in
    areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level
    lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with
    height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear
    supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
    into evening.

    ..Mead.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:32:14 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 131732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 131730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated
    hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the
    southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the
    upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

    ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
    An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move
    eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft
    increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will
    move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS
    Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions
    of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and
    perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures
    with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.

    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are
    likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS
    and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced
    by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to
    sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through
    the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain
    very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to
    weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will
    gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in
    thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX
    Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early
    afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive
    of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds
    are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates
    and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a
    tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.

    As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the
    stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front
    across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by
    further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt
    low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the
    boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the
    evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
    m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with
    any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface
    low and warm front into early Thursday.

    ...OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic...
    Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
    60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
    instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead
    of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and
    additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are
    expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the
    afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
    strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
    35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging
    wind gusts into evening.

    ..Lyons.. 10/13/2026

    $$
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)