ACUS11 KWNS 111937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111937
NCZ000-VAZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111937Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis and visible satellite
imagery indicate a stationary boundary extending from far
northeastern NC into south-central VA. Here, continued diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is
yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy. Despite the stronger
midlevel flow and related deep-layer shear being displaced slightly
to the north, this boundary should continue to provide a focus for
loosely organized thunderstorm clusters through the remainder of the
afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will promote locally
damaging wind gusts with the stronger clusters that evolve, and isolated/marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with any
favorable cell/boundary interactions.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_WPqJ4TM_JpuUZJJlN-6MDeBsXzk4W6RFeHecrTFX8QRfOc_CJ8E9BS0WS-REVE_n26CtYaZTEcUl5Ia0KYHM8vdaro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37097985 37607966 37867930 37887887 37697838 37207744
36947673 36627642 36257656 35937706 35927751 36137858
36527941 36837974 37097985

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)