ACUS11 KWNS 101804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101804
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma into northern
Texas and western into central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101804Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually intensifying ahead of
convective outflow remnant from an earlier complex. This outflow and accompanying convection will continue to propagate
south-southeastward into a hot and unstable airmass. Surface
temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 90s F/low 70s F are
contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE given rich low-level moisture.
However, mid-level lapse rates and tropospheric flow are relatively
poor. The stronger storm cores will be capable of producing wet
downbursts, a couple of which may result in 50+ kt gusts.
Nonetheless, given poor thermodynamics/kinematics aloft, the severe
threat should remain sparse at best.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7L7-bbxI_zgoKVtFQjkg79SuGJo89KwFv9riGV2-MM8zqF7jqbrKjJ5c2NlxOIoVdzjr-B7I2JW88a2xbJPxxalQwuY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33389880 33699873 33849857 34199790 34809671 35509524
35859388 35859338 35789312 35639271 35169212 34699211
34219237 33739367 33229499 33009783 33389880

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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