ACUS11 KWNS 092043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092042
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into northwestern
Pennsylvania and far western New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665...

Valid 092042Z - 092215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 665
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
over the next few hours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Multicells, transient supercells, and short line
segments have become established along/ahead of a surface trough.
These storms are overspreading a boundary layer characterized by
80s/70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints, where 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is in place, along with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
The current thinking is that these storms will maintain their
intensity and continue to pose a risk for a few damaging gusts. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially for any storms
that anchor on the baroclinic boundary, roughly established along
the OH/PA/NY border area.

..Squitieri.. 09/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9TrCdaQIBbqZbLERVuSdxCxh5WE9nW-qzddIc2zwVjLWpYwhdnm6LGAWVjDI1o-kUELRRsgucMPCWLLGLdRnaLm8tGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40788318 41448218 42137974 42437826 42457784 42047761
41457775 40707944 40398064 40258188 40318241 40498309
40788318

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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