AWUS01 KWNH 101537
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-102000-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1136 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Areas affected...Western PA...Much of Western & Northern
WV...Southern Half of OH...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 101535Z - 102000Z
SUMMARY...Efficient but fast moving convection into western slopes
of Appalachians possible to exceed hourly FFG (1-1.5"/hr), while
flanking line likely to see redevelopment that may repeat across
areas of slightly higher FFG, but with localized totals of 3-4"
possible, flash flooding becomes possible here as well.
DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows a
mature but compact MCS across NE PA nearing SW NY with a broad
northwesterly flow around the SW quadrant is is providing strong
moisture convergence through the Upper Ohio River Valley.
Enhanced moisture has streamed ahead of the wave through the
Valley bringing upper 60s to low 70s Tds even into the higher
western slopes/ridges and with some early morning sun, temps are
nearing low 80s and supporting SBCAPEs of 2000-2500+ J/kg. The
deep layer moisture pooled through the valley is also above normal
with total through depth around 1.75" though with most in the
lowest levels where convergence is maximized; loading is
supporting efficient rainfall production. Upstream observations
note .75-1.25" totals in 30 to 60 minutes and with continued
cooling trends/overshooting tops with broadening reflectivity,
expect similar 1-1.5" in the 30-60 minute time period across W PA
and western WV over the next hour or so. FFG values in the area
are 1-1.5" with 3hr FFG less than 2", suggesting the rates in
steep terrain may result in scattered incidents of flash flooding.
Upstream across SW, central and southern Ohio; there is a strong
cluster with elongated orientation to the mean flow from Licking
to Logan county, currently... this will start to intersect with
the south-end convection of the main convergence line over
Licking/Perry county, which could induce localized issues, though
FFG is naturally slightly higher across the area closer to
2"+/3hrs... which is about where observations plus hourly totals
will near but maybe not exceed initially. However, VWP through
the region shows highly confluent flow through depth along the
upwind flanking end; combine this with the area starting to move
into a broadening 500-1000mb thickness trough, supports
propagation vectors to reduce to less than 5kts with some
convergence along the upwind edge in SW OH. So with increasingly
unstable air upstream across IND and N KY with southwesterly
inflow orthogonal to the training line (near surface) but veering
confluent inflow aloft is highly suggestive of favorable
backbuilding and then NW to SSE (note turning) training
convection. Total PWats are slightly higher and instability will
further build into the 3000 J/kg increasing vertical strength/low
level moisture flux convergence into the updrafts with rates
increasing to near/locally above 2"/hr. Ideal training will
result in 3-4" totals which would even exceed 3 & 6 hr FFG.
However, there is high uncertainty within the evolution of this
cluster and then new additional development later this morning
into the afternoon. Some suggest the storms would not even exist
now; and therefore would further delay development (due to
capping) and new cells would develop further north and east
(HRRR/FV3/RRFS). Others suggest strong inflow orthogonal to the
outflow boundary and stronger cold pools will propagate the line
further southwest perhaps into SE IND/N KY (ARW2/NamNest). At
this time, the most conservative, middle ground solution is the
12z ARW which also has flaws compared to current RADAR/Satellite
trends but also appears more reasonable than the most aggressive
solutions though the overall line appears to be weakening relative
to the ARW solutions too.
Bottom line, there is solid potential but confidence is low for
the upstream area for prolonged training and may need to update
the MPD as trends unfold and confidence increases; however, the
rainfall efficiency/short-term rates have much higher confidence
for localized flash flooding issues across the western slopes of
the Appalachians in the next few hours.
Gallina
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_I8sE_xMOAPdhTP1MdMSmuTcspb2uxyDrFsS12anmS3ZR8-XFFcFFEtxgbO5gP7c9hEIU6ADlX7FcIUX_W_2BmO7QQI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41077989 41077920 40567874 39847921 39007980
38448052 38178159 38288252 38768366 39308436
39898470 40388459 40568404 40478343 40198275
39978172 40388095 40788036
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)