• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0935

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 1 17:32:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 011732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011731=20
    TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-011930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0935
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

    Areas affected...south-central Missouri...northern/central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 011731Z - 011930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2
    hours. Hazards will include damaging winds and hail.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to sag south and westward
    across south-central MO into northern AR this afternoon. Cumulus
    development along this boundary has become increasingly agitated
    over the last hour. Thunderstorm development is likely over the next
    1-2 hours near this boundary. The environment ahead of this boundary
    is very hot and unstable with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
    to low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Low-level lapse
    rates have been steepening, with around 7-7.5 C/km analyzed in
    surface objective analysis. Though deep layer flow is generally
    weak, this environment will favor multi-cell clusters with strong to
    severe winds and potential for small to marginally severe hail. A
    watch will likely be needed soon.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-w0B-9r69IKETT6uTfqVjjK_CYhqLoHKKkpxcXHnYPcp_ogVU4_QYl_5i4tl6f6YG2j9UEld= fw2Qr5_SxtfC_ofZxE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 37329295 37309372 36779383 35929371 35269286 34969238
    34599087 35079015 35279015 35519024 35679033 35999075
    36579155 37189249 37329295=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 1 18:41:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 011841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011840 COR
    TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-011930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0935
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

    Areas affected...south-central Missouri...northern/central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 011840Z - 011930Z

    CORRECTED FOR WATCH TYPE

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely over the next 1-2
    hours. Hazards will include damaging winds and hail.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary continues to sag south and westward
    across south-central MO into northern AR this afternoon. Cumulus
    development along this boundary has become increasingly agitated
    over the last hour. Thunderstorm development is likely over the next
    1-2 hours near this boundary. The environment ahead of this boundary
    is very hot and unstable with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
    to low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Low-level lapse
    rates have been steepening, with around 7-7.5 C/km analyzed in
    surface objective analysis. Though deep layer flow is generally
    weak, this environment will favor multi-cell clusters with strong to
    severe winds and potential for small to marginally severe hail. A
    watch will likely be needed soon.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Brb1AclqjQAVojkkdr3Kgx68rkK7MGMOBEbJPpGYXj2eX_mGRsX4amPhrE6jbHzl-m7j2QUE= s6QVP1nr8owU2Ca1w8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 37329295 37309372 36779383 35929371 35269286 34969238
    34599087 35079015 35279015 35519024 35679033 35999075
    36579155 37189249 37329295=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)