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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 1 06:54:32 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 010654
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010654=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-010900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0930
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0154 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

    Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas through central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

    Valid 010654Z - 010900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts and severe hail continues in
    stronger thunderstorm development, which may increasingly become
    focused near the I-70 corridor of western into central Missouri
    through 3-4 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms are embedded within modest (20-25+ kt),
    broadly anticyclonic westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow, with
    increasing inhibition probably becoming a more substantive factor
    concerning storm intensities and organization. Inhibition has been
    increasing with continued slow boundary-layer cooling, and latest
    Rapid Refresh suggests this may be aided further over the next few
    hours by mid-layer warming and height rises, particularly across
    southeastern Kansas through southwestern Missouri.

    Convective evolution through daybreak remains unclear. However, a
    narrow southwesterly low-level jet, on the order of 20-30 kt below
    1.5 km AGL, gradually veering with time may focus strongest
    low-level warm advection across the Lake of the Ozarks vicinity into
    areas west of Columbia through 08-09Z. As this occurs, this may
    shift the primary corridor of stronger and upscale growing
    convective development roughly along I-70.

    ..Kerr.. 06/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6OErip4jAHMKyKWV_WsE61GJAqyJAq9Vineyif0sSVbuOrTx0LguPH1zlB7UR5FIt0STxobdX= thUS9vuVt5GYJTOasE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38949481 39669384 39469168 38709104 37989232 37539346
    37739578 38439503 38949481=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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