ACUS11 KWNS 010354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010353=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-010600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

Valid 010353Z - 010600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms are developing/ongoing
across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This trend will continue
into the overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out for any storms
interacting with surface boundaries.

DISCUSSION...Several areas of thunderstorms are underway across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening. One such area is
across the Flint Hills where earlier splitting supercells occurred
and produced reports of 1-2" hail (near Emporia). Additionally, a
brief tornado was reported by spotters near Madison, KS (Greenwood
County) as the right split interacted with a diffuse outflow
boundary. The left split has since dissipated as it moved northeast
toward Kansas City, but the right split is very slowly moving east
along the boundary. Additional thunderstorms across the Flint Hills
in the wake of the initial convection.

Additional thunderstorms are developing farther west, near Wichita,
KS, and farther north to the southeast of Salina, KS. The storms
near Wichita have struggled to sustain their intensity, with the
storms to the north exhibiting supercellular characteristics.

Lastly, recently radar imagery is showing development to the
southeast of Kansas City, MO, across portions of west-central
Missouri. Although these cells have struggled through the evening,
lightning has recently been observed with this activity.

Overall, the environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
remains favorable for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Thermodynamically, an impressive nocturnal CAPE reservoir remains in
place with MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg across western
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #258. Kinematically,
effective-layer shear remains between 35-50 knots across the region.
Thus, the primary severe threats with any sustained thunderstorm
updraft will have the potential to produce very large hail and
damaging winds. Given the persistent extreme instability across the
region, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with any discrete storm
interacting with one of a myriad of surface boundaries (outflow,
cold front, dryline, etc) across the watch.

With time, the slow movement of the storms, especially the Flint
Hills cluster, should tend toward messy storm interactions and a
tendency to grow upscale as updraft outflows congeal together. This
may result in an increasing damaging wind potential manifest as a
small MCS moving east into Missouri.

..Marsh.. 06/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7hokbVqlYYtOIIMDtWxQhWaVHsksntGlK3XsMWjB5V_GvpQLwVWZ9HsZ099ABimoHUYexRsQz= 8VQdhbRt-YSclg5ALc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37389330 37649490 37579600 37009653 37029778 38159766
38669733 39259623 39579453 39599325 39229235 37469220
37389330=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)