ACUS11 KWNS 312153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312152=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256...

Valid 312152Z - 312345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256
continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is noted with the MCS moving
across the lower OH/mid-MS Valley region. While some severe threat
may persist for the next 1-2 hours, downstream watch issuance will
likely not be needed.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery over the past two hours reveals
steadily warming cloud-top temperatures of the MCS moving across far
southeast MO. Concurrently, MRMS VIL imagery shows the line
beginning to segment into more isolated cells, and an outflow
boundary has recently become apparent ahead of the line in KPAH
reflectivity data. These signs all point towards a steady weakening
of the MCS, which is expected to continue as it moves southeastward
where deep-layer wind shear becomes increasingly weak. Moderate
buoyancy remains immediately downstream of the MCS (MLCAPE values
upwards of 3000 J/kg), which will likely continue to support
periodic pulses within the line and/or along the outflow boundary.
This convection will be capable of sporadic large hail and
strong/severe downbursts, but confidence in a prolonged or
well-organized severe threat is limited given the marginal
deep-layer wind shear.

..Moore.. 05/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ow_nDPZvsLqO7gR1I7JSUhlxL3Gh89qlwJS7f99DLoKAYCrCkpuc1f-ab3uHyQDxjErHtBdJ= KjsC0Krywqtw9hFjHQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 36759088 36739032 36868989 37128958 37408943 37578927
37418833 37148807 36808797 36478799 36198821 35948868
35798917 35728975 35759016 35869049 36049080 36209100
36389109 36559110 36759088=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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