ACUS11 KWNS 312050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312050=20
OKZ000-312315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northwest and north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312050Z - 312315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong-severe downbursts are possible with any
storms that develop over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening high-based
cumulus evolving within a zone of low-level confluence in
north-central and northwest OK -- where a sharp gradient in
low-level moisture and boundary-layer mixing is evident. Continued
heating in this zone should eventually support the development of
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures in the upper 90s
amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints are yielding a favorable environment
for strong to severe downbursts. Around 30 kt of effective shear in
the northern part of the area will conditionally favor storm
organization and a locally greater severe risk, though most storms
are expected to remain short-lived.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4akY6xoA_DpC8_o8NSYe3zOGKrRtiaHJ0PZ59RKl0nXaNGOCCnNFGgJFJIgO86ddGBDFYjBPs= b4s8oEkTOSVW53k-rw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35589905 35729894 36059858 36489805 36829776 36879751
36749713 36429708 35939724 35299817 35269854 35379897
35589905=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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