ACUS11 KWNS 311930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311930=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MO...far southern IL...far western
KY...and far northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311930Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts will be possible with a cluster of thunderstorms tracking southeastward.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is
tracking southeastward across southeastern MO, which has produced a
few damaging gusts and small hail. Despite limited deep-layer shear
(around 25-kt midlevel flow per regional VWP), warm/moist inflow and
steepened lapse rates (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to
maintain this activity as it continues southeastward along the CAPE
gradient over the next couple hours. Locally damaging gusts will
remain possible, but current thinking is that the overall severe
risk will remain too limited for a watch.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hobv5TtJ6G6ELD9XNWG7BltQk_kGJ3WMmr2obHGHtGFLEPqpWiSLCK5bmSCPTF4Mfo_284kT= coWht_zLD6dvtdadSU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 36959092 37339092 37859020 37858975 37648918 37308875
36858862 36398877 36208901 36088946 36249010 36509059
36959092=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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