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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0915

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 31 01:49:22 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 310149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310148=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-310315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0915
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0848 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

    Areas affected...parts of northwest Nebraska and western South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

    Valid 310148Z - 310315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A north-south line of thunderstorms continues across
    portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252. The overall environment
    remains favorable for isolated large hail and damaging winds in the
    short term. Trends will be monitored to determine if an extension in
    time for the watch is needed, but one is currently not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across most of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 this evening. The exception is across
    portions of far northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota. Here, a
    slowly westward moving north-south band of thunderstorms has developed/intensified over the last 90 minutes. The environment
    surrounding these storms remains unstable with MUCAPE around
    1000-2000 J/kg, while the deep-layer shear has improved this evening
    to around 30-35 knots. This will result in a continued threat of
    large hail and perhaps damaging thunderstorm winds with the
    strongest cores.=20

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252 is scheduled to expire at 03Z (9 PM
    MDT). Trends will be monitored over the next hour to see if a local
    extension in time is needed, but current expectations are that
    absent significant increase in intensity, the watch will be allowed
    to expire on time.

    ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5eyzq2JLrxiS82_wcoHqAhbAh8Tsvid6IUsi0eIqoeiSIWohAuiUwtUyFq8CzCt_PzLiFrfhq= Z-fpC1E2PXDU4ly-r8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41610265 42720354 44640359 45100316 45160251 45030217
    43420203 41840226 41610265=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)