ACUS11 KWNS 310029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310029=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-310230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Central Kansas into south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

Valid 310029Z - 310230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across
portions of central Kansas and south-central Nebraska, including
behind the primary band of thunderstorms where new convection is
developing along outflow boundaries. Trends are being monitored for
the need for downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Several severe wind reports have been noted over the
past two hours across central KS as two predominant bands/clusters
of thunderstorms have emerged and spread northeast. These clusters
currently reside within the axis of higher MLCAPE and should be
migrating towards a region of lower buoyancy across eastern NE and
far eastern KS (as depicted by the recent 00z TOP RAOB that sampled
around 1800 J/kg MLCAPE along with nearly -120 J/kg MLCIN). However,
the presence of established cold pools with both clusters, combined
with the coming onset of the nocturnal jet, may promote a continued
severe wind threat downstream across southeast NE and parts of
eastern Kansas through late evening. Convective trends will continue
to be monitored for the need for downstream watch issuance.=20

Further southwest across south-central KS, convection continues to
develop along the outflow boundaries associated with the initial
thunderstorm clusters. Although storm motions will be towards the
convectively overturned/cold pool air, convective intensity trends
in GOES cloud-top temperatures and MRMS VIL suggest that pockets of
sufficient buoyancy remain in place for at least a localized hail
and wind threat over the next couple of hours - especially as
isentropic upglide over the cold pools increases with the onset of
the nocturnal jet.

..Moore.. 05/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!788GrTlooUxxSLFag_Q2VHfp9exqr-5yt5nR4trzYyFZ6Ge9kV1kWg3GBGyAsxxqZHY3FIhBr= xt5KSiRrmO5Uja5Bxc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37179753 37069803 37129860 37429911 37989955 38339974
38669961 38919940 39139923 39449915 39799921 40109953
40309969 40519969 40739942 40889905 40959860 40909822
40839787 40679762 39219652 38879634 38379624 38109634
37889654 37179753=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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