ACUS11 KWNS 302353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302353=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

Valid 302353Z - 310200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have struggled to maintain intensity within
a weakly forced, but otherwise favorable convective environment.
While storm coverage and intensity are uncertain due to recent
trends, additional thunderstorm development appears possible through mid-evening based on GOES imagery.

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells across the far eastern TX
Panhandle have struggled to maintain intensity over the past hour
with both cells largely dissipated as of 23:50 UTC. The lackluster
sustenance of these cells is likely owing to weak forcing for ascent
across the region as the primary upper-level trough axis shifts away
from the region to the north. However, there are hints in recent
GOES imagery that additional convection is possible in the coming
hours. Low-level water-vapor imagery reveals a subtle ribbon of
vorticity spreading east across the TX Panhandle towards the
dryline, which may bolster ascent to some degree over the next hour.
Some hints of this ascent are already noted as a few deeper
congestus clouds develop along the dryline to the west of the
weakening cells. Additionally, a cluster of elevated cumulus south
of the Lawton, OK area has seen steady, albeit slow, growth over the
past hour. Confidence is low that either of these regions will see
substantial convective intensification, but recent RRFS solutions
hint at isolated thunderstorms through roughly 04 UTC within an
otherwise favorable convective environment.

..Moore.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5v8ufqjRYRCCHISTMxmjnbqW1rP2rbxhbP1_kavvKOXzXhbX-Z6YUcyHkAVDNrT3wLQ7fBHHE= gp6hBJazZCwwkTkosM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34150051 34450071 34690067 35050044 35180031 35340005
35419973 35379911 35259860 35059822 34719798 34449789
34109798 33959824 33899870 33859906 33839980 33890039
34150051=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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