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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0911

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 30 23:20:50 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 302320
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302320=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-310045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0911
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0620 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

    Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska and South
    Dakota...northeast Colorado...and extreme eastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

    Valid 302320Z - 310045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening across
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #252. Isolated large hail and strong winds
    will remain possible across the watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop and grow upscale into north-south linear clusters this afternoon/evening to the northeast
    of a negatively tilted mid-level trough moving across north-central
    Colorado into eastern Wyoming.

    The overall environment remains favorable for strong to severe
    thunderstorms, with MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, with
    deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. However, deep-layer shear
    is mostly parallel to the initiating boundaries, which will favor
    seeding of downstream updrafts, acting as an overall check on
    thunderstorm intensity. Thus, despite overall an environment that
    would support a sustained hail and wind threat this evening, the
    most likely scenario is for any severe hail or wind to occur on an
    isolated basis with the strongest of updraft cores as the overall
    complex moves east into the central/northern Plains.

    The activity should weaken later this evening with the loss of
    diurnal heating.

    ..Marsh.. 05/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4FtjEHCBi_gE8zceUBVoAybkA2gy2LV7sjuCRJh--BjQzBOU2ssXuLQfW53vy0db4sgiXAKs2= nhbK9stKfpRxfmHo2g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 40130499 44210505 45970504 46210410 45950324 44340278
    42980271 41080287 39730293 39180389 39500486 40130499=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)