ACUS11 KWNS 302232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302231=20
TXZ000-310030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau of southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302231Z - 310030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across the Big Bend/Edwards
Plateau region may be very isolated, but the downstream environment
may support intense convection through late evening. Watch issuance
is currently not expected given limited storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating along a dryline across
the Big Bend/Edwards Plateau over the past couple of hours. Although
deep initiation has struggled to remain sustained, lightning trends
within a couple of deeper convective cores east/southeast of Fort
Stockton, TX have increased over the past 20 minutes, hinting at a
higher potential for sustained convection. If mature thunderstorms
can be established, they will quickly migrate into an environment
very favorable for intense convection (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with
elongated hodographs featuring 45 knots of effective bulk shear).
Within this environment, splitting supercells appear probable and
will pose a threat for large to very large hail as well as severe
gusts. Given weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, it remains to
be seen whether these more recent attempts at sustained convection
will succeed or whether storm coverage will be more than a storm or
two. Because of these concerns watch issuance is currently not
anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

..Moore/Guyer.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LD7utXKHKYXoMWUHXe4dn5wBgcUZTNDvAcrby2ZQ4AkHcYVHjXcYPt194apHrYW9sdBrglEN= GjJu8i91D3dfYLNqZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29680273 29710286 29870297 30150285 30870231 31910093
32010035 31999996 31779981 31469980 30929999 30520041
30120094 29910144 29790183 29790230 29750249 29680273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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