ACUS11 KWNS 302159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302158=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

Valid 302158Z - 310000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will likely increase across central
Kansas over the next few hours as thunderstorms migrate into a
corridor of extreme buoyancy.

DISCUSSION...Two clusters of multicells and embedded supercells have
emerged south of Hays, KS and to the west of the Wichita, KS area.
Regional velocity imagery shows the early development of mid-level
mesocyclones with a few of these cells, hinting that deep-layer
shear is likely adequate to support supercells. Nearby VWP
observations from KICT have sampled 0-6 km BWD values near 35 knots,
which is stronger than estimated by recent RAP mesoanalyses.
Additionally, these VWP observations are depicting 0-3 km SRH on the
order of 300 m2/s2 to the north of a subtle outflow boundary, which
will further support the potential for supercells, and perhaps a
locally higher tornado threat, over the next few hours as convection
begins to interact with this boundary. Similarly, a subtle outflow
boundary is noted further north downstream of the cluster near Hays,
KS. Enhanced low-level vorticity in proximity and north of this
boundary may promote better storm organization and a localized
tornado threat.=20

However, any tornado potential will be conditional on maintaining at
least semi-discrete storm modes. Based on recent radar trends, it
remains to be seen whether these clusters will become primarily
outflow dominant - which will likely diminish the tornado potential.
Whether or not convection will become outflow dominant should become
apparent over the next hour or so. Regardless, both clusters are
migrating into the regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE values are
estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. This will promote further
intensification of ongoing convection, especially the potential for
severe wind gusts.

..Moore.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4U5OUE7eSzMetD0PrcI-jClzU-Odph3qZaNEFlrq4zscGo6I_YGcxsU9UJpqwI5tRLwUIHTgj= K18Fy6rruESI6iUwxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 36939821 37429845 37699867 37819892 38129945 38439978
38789993 39089994 39379978 39589943 39679904 39649862
39589845 39369800 39059769 38769751 38319728 37939720
37539711 37249714 36929733 36829753 36799778 36819803
36939821=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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