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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0908

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 30 20:52:18 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 302052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302051=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-302245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0908
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into extreme northwest
    KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 302051Z - 302245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible from late
    afternoon into early evening, before more widespread storms develop
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture beneath
    steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z LBF sounding) has
    resulted in strong destabilization across parts of western/central
    NE, with MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Details of
    storm development (if any) through late afternoon remain uncertain,
    with the strongest ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper
    shortwave trough expected to remain northwest of the area in the
    short term. However, weakening CINH may result in isolated storm
    development across southwest NE late this afternoon, in the vicinity
    of a differential heating zone. Development also cannot be ruled out
    farther north into the weakly capped environment across central NE.

    Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain modest, with some backing
    aloft associated with the approaching negative-tilt shortwave
    trough. However, backed low-level flow is currently supporting
    effective SRH of 150+ m2/s2, with a further increase possible into
    early evening. If storms can mature within this environment, the
    favorable instability and SRH could result in supercell development,
    despite the marginal deep-layer shear. Any sustained supercell could
    be accompanied by a tornado and very large hail potential.=20

    Regardless of isolated supercell development through the next 2-3
    hours, more widespread storms are expected to develop and/or move
    into the region from KS this evening, with an increasingly prominent severe-wind threat. Eventual watch issuance is likely, though timing
    will depend on trends regarding possible initiation through the
    remainder of the afternoon.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vphWclaNdfCSf4UHrMiS-nnET7qWLwd217AbZYTg1EnJ0xCkkb_42chc_aqnVoIiPfSJQxTM= RBuI7lQNhD8LlMPuSo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40300192 41910192 42379969 42049907 41549911 41199957
    41070002 40300038 39760042 39640079 39710140 39820183
    40060198 40300192=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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