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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0471

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 16 22:51:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 162251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162250=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-170015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0471
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

    Areas affected...Upstate New York and Vermont

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162250Z - 170015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this evening across
    upstate New York and into Vermont. The need for a watch is
    uncertain, but this area will be monitored closely over the next 1-2
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of individual storms/small clusters have
    formed and moved eastward into upstate NY during the past 30-60
    minutes, just ahead of a cold front and on the east edge of the
    thicker clouds. Surface temperatures have peaked in the low 80s to
    the south of a diffuse baroclinic zone near the CWA border for
    Albany and Burlington, where surface dewpoints have held near 60 F.=20
    This is contributing to moderate buoyancy across upstate NY ahead of
    the ongoing storms. Regional VWPs show relatively long hodographs
    that will favor supercell potential, and enough low-level shear for
    a low-end tornado threat. Otherwise, isolated wind damage and large
    hail will be the main threats. It is not clear if storm
    coverage/intensity will increase from what is already observed, so
    the need for a watch is still uncertain.

    ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4vSzBvCDVUpY627reDourrcvFIa-OINFlAavaAUxejtjjuXnxvymxdyuGHznuZ2Yzpal8cRkK= p6yw7ScuKkk2moVIp8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 44337413 44417378 44427344 44187291 43597275 43377284
    43217303 43137363 43157455 43237500 43487514 43847490
    44117465 44337413=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)