ACUS11 KWNS 162205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162204=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...western
Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

Valid 162204Z - 162330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms across the Mid MS
Valley may continue east/southeastward with a risk for isolated
damaging gusts and some hail this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC,regional radar and mesoanalysis showed
initial supercells had coalesced into a broader cluster of
thunderstorms now ongoing over the mid MS Valley. As storms have
congealed, a cold pool has developed and could aide in a continued
severe threat downstream late this afternoon, and perhaps for a few
hours this evening.

The exact eastward extent and intensity of the severe risk remains
uncertain. A more strongly mixed air mass reduces buoyancy to the
east, but around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is likely sufficient to support
some stronger updrafts for a couple hours. The drier air may also
temporarily favor increased damaging wind potential owing to steeper
lapse rates and greater evaporational cooling in the sub-cloud
layer. Eventually though, weakening is expected as the drier and
less buoyant air mass should limit the convective intensity.

With an established cold pool present, the cluster could persist for
a few hours this evening with isolated severe potential across
southwestern KY and northwest TN. WW127 will continue to be adjusted
with local extensions where relevant. A downstream watch currently
appears unlikely, though convective trends will be monitored.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_DQ3Ly2R-5pXRV57R-up_qPpGoy_XW9cKCGmmawdvFU8gr5qsATWCmmOTAJDdINBKtp6GI7K= wOnnNKfQyQoj1rduIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36809047 36979036 36898987 37128883 37488794 37408716
37308691 37148676 36908672 36548677 36268695 35988742
35648867 35648915 35799000 36809047=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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