ACUS11 KWNS 162058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162057=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Pennsylvania into southwestern
New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162057Z - 162200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next
couple of hours. However, the environment downstream of the ongoing
storms does not appear particularly favorable for severe. Convective
trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection has failed to materialize
across NY up to this point, possibly due to a boundary layer that is
too dry to support convective initiation. A line of low-topped
thunderstorms along a surface trough has organized along the PA/OH
border, and is quickly progressing east-northeast. A few damaging
gust reports have been received within the past hour in northwest
PA. However, the ongoing line of storms is approaching an even drier
airmass, characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s F surface
dewpoints. As such, confidence in sustenance of the ongoing storms
is not overly high. Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to
be monitored for the need of a WW issuance should the storms
maintain their intensity.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QJQN9O8PH_kQuKXR6W67GvRx8KFRInm64IQDPNbxZaojhhNpKVaJIVKT1w8A6IRZrqfsDoS1= vXYC73NdOuYxR72Zus$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 41128005 41787928 42217869 42507807 42767661 42657640
42427633 41997664 41577724 41247809 41017970 41128005=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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