ACUS11 KWNS 162053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053=20
TXZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162053Z - 162200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging
wind possible through the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...While forcing for ascent is generally weak across
western Texas, convective development is noted near Ft. Stockton and
Trans Pecos along the higher terrain near the dryline. The air mass
is characterized by moderate to strong CAPE and deep layer shear
around 35 to 40 kts. This will support potential for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and severe winds. Given the risk
will likely remain isolated, a watch is not anticipated at this time
but trends will be monitored.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hCtd1ybiJ4mjeFySdqXAGGMJsFmThxeqpHuQRh1uqoGQAzORH48Yy6_fXJdNY_flbksn3fMf= H31z_7PpdWe1xftVrw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29330402 29840394 31640256 32160203 32480115 31890063
31110079 29290024 28780064 29590158 29650252 29000293
28960360 29330402=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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