ACUS11 KWNS 161737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161736=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-161930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York...and
southern Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161736Z - 161930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail should increase through
the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW issuance may
be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The mid-level trough over the Great Lakes is impinging
on the Northeast, with some heating beneath a cirrus plume
supporting boundary layer mixing/destabilization. Surface
temperatures are approaching 80 F in spots, with convective
temperatures close to being breached (based in RAP forecast
soundings). Visible satellite depicts a rapidly developing CU field
beneath the cirrus, and the approach of the upper trough should
provide added lift for ascent over central into eastern NY over the
next few hours. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading 60+ F
surface dewpoints, yielding close to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, which should
further increase into the afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow aloft
from the approaching mid-level trough is also contributing to over
50 kts of effective bulk shear. This speed shear and aforementioned
instability will support multicells and supercells once storms
initiate and mature. Severe wind and hail are both the main
concerns, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Convective
trends are being monitored for potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7HfjKiiyhB0Q5BPx0xowGlOjTjJEA69IvSqVnpRVQ9IUqERPLWkAGW-X4l7Dw6sebImNyMeH= uulyS9YI9_IbR6lntc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43087861 43437703 43657598 43827411 43687328 43397275
43017270 42637404 42517449 42387577 42317716 42207790
42307842 43087861=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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