ACUS11 KWNS 161611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161611=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-161745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...portions of
western Tennessee/Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161611Z - 161745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk to increase through the early afternoon.
Primary risks will include large hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite across southern Missouri shows an
area of deepening cu development, with a few smaller cells with
occasional lightning developing east of Springfield. The 12z RAOB
from SGF (Springfield, MO) shows MLCIN in place, which can still be
observed in surface objective analysis. With additional
heating/mixing and cooling aloft with the approaching shortwave,
this is expected to erode over the next couple of hours.=20

HREF guidance suggests that a cluster of thunderstorms may develop
by early afternoon before moving south and eastward into northern
Arkansas as forcing for ascent increases. Forecast soundings depict
linearly elongated hodographs and steep low to mid-level hodographs,
favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Through time, it is
likely that storms will cluster with an increase in damaging wind
potential. Additional thunderstorms will be possible near the OK/AR
border this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed to cover these
threats.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4j0PMO3DbtpHR-aXSiSDBfmXKMNF32v4lOTfzYJNXXjEW8yVdva1IBifvyiYTIG3lU920Bf1u= FFiL7QfPsOVTgBCvb4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35679001 35269132 34989266 35009340 35079404 35239437
35589446 36039459 36599456 37359301 37349293 37459249
37499175 37499137 37139014 36728949 36018957 35679001=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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