ACUS11 KWNS 160344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160344=20
ARZ000-160515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...West central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

Valid 160344Z - 160515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional wind damage and/or a brief tornado or two will
be possible with bowing segments/mesovortices through 05-06z.

DISCUSSION...The bowing line segment across west central AR has
maintained intensity for the past 1-2 hours. The downstream
environment is sufficiently buoyant to support strong updrafts.=20 Additionally, the SRX VWP shows a 40-50 kt rear-inflow jet and low-level/deep-layer shear vectors (per LZK VWP) are oriented
favorably across the N-S line segment to maintain updrafts tied
closely to the leading edge of the cold pool. In the near term,
these factors will maintain the threat for occasional wind damage
and a brief tornado or two with mesovortices in the line. By
06-07z, the storms will likely move east of any substantial buoyancy
and are expected to weaken.

..Thompson.. 04/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oTfy8Gs9w7f5ZXw1ZJTAwNzrr42d-TS2aPOYf9gG8Pd86TKvxMfdDzaFerAd24KYK9GrU61X= rlpbJowXnMN8CKAW68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

LAT...LON 34949259 34859334 34999363 35499346 35849323 35949285
35909242 35729216 34949259=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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