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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0457

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 15 23:19:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 152318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152318=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-160045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0457
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

    Areas affected...North and central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

    Valid 152318Z - 160045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated wind damage threat will continue
    with storm clusters/supercells across north Texas, and additional
    cluster development is possible into central Texas (where an
    extension in area might need to be considered).

    DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing in clusters with some embedded
    supercells along a conglomerate outflow from Stephens into Jack Cos.
    These storms are in the corridor of greatest buoyancy now, with
    gradual buoyancy decrease with eastward extent as a result of
    thicker cloud cover. A continuation of MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
    with relatively long/straight hodographs will support supercells
    with large hail and isolated wind damage in a cluster-type mode for
    the next couple of hours, given the more SW-NE orientation of the
    dryline and storm-scale outflows. The new updraft development
    farther southwest to near SJT could necessitate an extension to
    roughly Tom Green and Concho Cos. in the next 30 minutes.

    ..Thompson.. 04/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6NjRenfulnRL2_DLabFOVF3-a6SzQt07I5sdS1MZDKF2aHpu_58xTcbTheXL9JnLWd_hicB3B= f_W20UvqIeVkNe8VHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33459874 33929777 33769693 33439710 32699832 31769926
    31209987 30920059 31110077 31620034 33149915 33459874=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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