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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0453

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 15 20:56:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 152055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152055=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-152200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0453
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Oklahoma into
    southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

    Valid 152055Z - 152200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe wind and hail threat should persist for several
    more hours, and a couple tornadoes remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell thunderstorms have developed over
    the past couple of hours over portions of northeastern OK into
    southeastern KS, where severe hail has been reported. Additional
    storms have recently matured over northwestern TX and are
    approaching the Red River. All of these storms are traversing the
    warm sector immediately ahead of the dryline, where 2500+ J/kg
    MLCAPE and over 60 kts of effective bulk shear resides. As such,
    supercells should persist from the Red River toward the Ozarks for
    several more hours, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.
    Regional VADs show modest speed shear contributing to elongated
    hodographs, but with little low-level curvature, so tornado
    potential appears modest. Still, a couple of tornadoes cannot be
    ruled out if supercells can persist in a discrete fashion. The
    greatest short-term severe threat exists with ongoing storms in
    northeastern OK, where vertical wind shear is locally stronger.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9didhZbupR1JyPHiynJLis8pUAshKKu-bUYeFWJhSY4SauWxhXOINfc7dftHKS1bC2jrbAk3W= Wuxy1NWq_gvKvU0Gx8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34049819 36669677 37769546 37949487 37849443 37329413
    36219451 34249581 33999630 33899707 34049819=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)