ACUS11 KWNS 151914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151914=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-152115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern KS...western/central MO...and far
southern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151914Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next few hours.
The primary concerns are severe wind gusts and large hail, though a
couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A watch issuance is likely
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts gradually
deepening boundary-layer cumulus along/immediately east of a cold
front moving into eastern KS. Over the next few hours, thunderstorms
should increase in coverage along the eastward-moving front -- aided
by increasing large-scale ascent preceding an approaching midlevel
trough. The SGF 18Z sounding sampled a moist air mass with
relatively steep lapse rates, and continued diurnal heating will
further destabilize the pre-frontal air mass (around 2500 MLCAPE
expected).=20

The combination of this instability and 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear
will favor convective organization. Initially, a long/mostly
straight hodograph (with a pronounced veer-back signature) could
favor splitting supercell structures with a risk of very large hail.
However, with storm motions and deep-layer flow/shear oriented
parallel to the eastward-moving front and the expectation for robust
convective outflow/clustering, upscale growth is expected. This
would promote an increasing risk of scattered damaging winds. While
less certain (especially given the mode), a couple tornadoes cannot
be ruled out, given a well-established low-level jet and associated
enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RCsTO6WaXWBDlzVRCk1c4d4rh5L83WG5PXu6E63FcodqzierpQoL3IOcpx-cvexMdW_MpVFw= HZbWO_2lZSkVQDx2Zs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37789644 38429595 39349550 40159523 40919480 41169430
41259365 41189281 41019237 40669209 40019217 39149258
37919333 37159429 37079521 37179608 37409644 37789644=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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