ACUS11 KWNS 151837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151837=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Oklahoma into northern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151837Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase through the
afternoon. Severe wind and hail appear to be the main threats,
though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Given the expected
coverage of severe, a WW issuance will be needed in the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been noted over northeast OK
and north-central TX, within a low-level WAA regime ahead of a
dryline, which is located across western OK and is surging eastward.
Current mesoanalysis shows a mid-level trough overspreading the
southern Plains, providing deep-layer ascent, so more widespread
convection should develop within the next few hours. Ahead of the
dryline, from central OK into northern TX, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates are overspreading upper 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding up
to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per 18Z mesoanalysis). The overspreading of the
mid-level trough is supporting elongated, mainly straight hodographs
with minimal low-level curvature (per the 18Z OUN observed
sounding). Furthermore the upper-level flow is oriented roughly
parallel to the dryline.=20

Given that the low-level jet is shifting from the southern Plains
into the Ozarks, the current thinking is that mixed modes of
transient supercells and bowing segments will develop along and
ahead of the dryline over the next few hours. Severe wind and hail
will be the main threats with the strongest, longest-lived storms.
Mesovortices north of the apex of bowing segments, as well as any
long-lived supercells, may pose a tornado threat, though the
confidence in tornado potential is overall lower. Nonetheless, the
overall severe coverage is expected to be widespread enough to
warrant a WW issuance, which is likely in the next couple of hours.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CA03g9n3DKIaKiYBPfQaoZttJ39Yv9ZK7-pe0plTbvLrYVYxUGmwJgdJhYMzcWlT7p07Ij7N= UCf3PKpicwP-UOKW2I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33069910 35309757 36699635 36919569 36929520 36489484
35739487 34719543 33769645 33299720 32999785 32859839
33069910=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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