ACUS11 KWNS 150335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150335=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri and extreme northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150335Z - 150500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small, bowing convective cluster in northeast Oklahoma
could reach southwest Missouri and extreme northwest Arkansas before
weakening. This area will be monitored for a possible watch by 05z.

DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS is moving northeastward at about 35 kt
into northeast OK. This storm cluster is moving along the diffuse
eastern gradient of the richer low-level moisture and moderate
buoyancy, where weak convective inhibition and lift along the cold
pool are maintaining the storms. The stronger gusts on the OK
mesonet have been in the 45-50 mph range thus far, though several
mesovortices have been observed within the more north-south segment
of the line near KINX. The bowing cluster could spread northeast of
WW #114 and into southwest MO/extreme northwest AR before the storms
weakening appreciably, so this area will be monitored for a new
watch by 05z.

..Thompson/Hart.. 04/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SfZHFk13REZhrniYt5ED2QnNnuROTZQdpUfotOwoQK5fz0jybg3gOI6zlXxMtmfSCr0g9Fjh= z23OaPMSA4_pLgS1qs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36949456 37559379 37659308 37129283 35909368 35709440
36269460 36949456=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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