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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0434

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 15 00:32:00 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 150031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150031=20
    MIZ000-150130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0434
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

    Areas affected...Central/southern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 150031Z - 150130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Though a transition to primarily a linear storm mode is
    expected, all severe hazards are possible this evening in
    central/southern Lower Michigan. A watch will be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...The threat for severe storms will spread into parts of
    Lower Michigan within the next couple of hours. The primary area of
    concern should remain south of a warm front across central Lower
    Michigan. A cluster of storms has evolved out of two supercells in=20 southeastern Wisconsin and will track across Lake Michigan. Damaging
    winds will likely be a concern with this activity. Additional storms
    may form in the warm advection regime ahead of that linear cluster.
    Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 kts of 0-6 km shear on
    the KGRR VAD, large hail will remain a concern with the stronger,
    discrete elements. The risk for tornadoes is not as clear given the
    linear modes expected, though the GRR VAD also shows near 400 m2/s2
    0-3 SRH. A watch will likely be needed soon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kAsexpBKlRqCHHbDRkJFJajT00fd4GLDGLTvc5tx16azb4o8DmhWavV8gB0X8pS7kuWfRkrg= ak75yRUbgoWs4VkuYs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 42438734 42848741 43478729 44138705 44478628 44258468
    43628374 42668364 42078395 41888484 41938618 42218714
    42438734=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)