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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0425

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 14 20:42:58 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 142042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142042=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-142215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0425
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast/east-central IA...southwest
    WI...and far northwest IL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

    Valid 142042Z - 142215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

    SUMMARY...A swath of very large to giant hail (3+ inches in
    diameter) appears likely over the next couple hours, with a few
    tornadoes also expected. The tornado risk will continue to increase
    through the afternoon into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A dominant right-moving supercell has rapidly
    intensified immediately south of a quasi-stationary surface front
    extending across central IA, with additional storm splits evolving
    along its northern flank. This storm has recent reports of a tornado
    and 1.75 inch hail. Ahead of this storm, a strongly unstable air
    mass (around 4500 J/kg SBCAPE per modified 18Z DVN special sounding)
    and 50 kt of effective shear will favor continued intensification of
    this storm and additional storms forming along its flanks and near
    the surface boundary over the next few hours. Given a long/mostly
    straight hodograph (per VWP data), splitting supercells with
    dominant right-movers will pose a risk of very large to giant hail
    (some 3+ inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes.=20

    With time, low-level hodographs will increase in size/clockwise
    curvature as a low-level jet strengthens through the afternoon into
    the evening. This will support an increasing risk of strong to
    intense tornadoes with any established semi-discrete supercells.

    ..Weinman.. 04/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88TnpDiy-1IAoV0ckvUTL9bRq0RyK6Jc_cd1l4a9X83pOyVB0AIQj4D1G7Ya9Sgyq_CnFdm5k= eVaacKjIM07QXz25NQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42569317 42829282 42969226 43109053 42998994 42568984
    42248999 42009121 42049267 42289310 42569317=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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