ACUS11 KWNS 141954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141953=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central and eastern Nebraska into
extreme western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141953Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible this
afternoon across portions of south-central Nebraska along a
stationary boundary, with a conditional threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts with any storm that can develop.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a stationary boundary
extending northeast to southwest across eastern/south-central
Nebraska, with a surface low analyzed near OMA. A corridor of higher
surface dewpoints (low-to-mid 50s F) located along the cool side of
this boundary is contributing to 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE, with forecast
soundings and mesoanalysis depicting eroding MLCIN as surface
temperatures continue to warm. Despite only weak available buoyancy,
strong southwesterly flow aloft (40+ kt at 3 km AGL per the UEX VWP)
atop northeasterly surface flow on the cool side of the surface
boundary is supporting strong effective bulk shear of 50-60 kts.
Elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates (per the 18z
OAX observed sounding) will support a conditional threat for
isolated large hail with any storm that is able to develop, with
drier boundary layer profiles immediately south of the surface
boundary (DCAPE of 800-1000+ J/kg) also supporting some potential
for strong to occasionally severe wind gusts. This conditional
severe risk will gradually decrease with time this evening owing to
low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Given the expectation for
storm coverage and threat magnitude to remain limited should a storm
even develop, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DA9fnSFkBRnKwMw6Pn8O4UWtBqf080Hv2QJrujDSonWpe7azZi5-kOw_lKwLrwJOrIEXp5Ve= AEevLdv1_qO-UOkdho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40829690 40519813 40259897 40059957 40099990 40219996
40379976 40609948 40999900 41529800 41969701 41949630
41669589 41239583 41079603 40859677 40829690=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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