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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 15 04:56:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 150456
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150455=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-151000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0240
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

    Areas affected...Far northwest Iowa...southern Minnesota...and
    central Wisconsin

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 150455Z - 151000Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow banding will become more prominent in the
    coming hours across extreme northwest Iowa, southern Minnesota, and
    into central Wisconsin. Snowfall rates will likely exceed 2 inches
    per hour within a narrow band across the region.

    DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclone is apparent in surface
    observations over the central Plains as a prominent upper-level jet
    continues to push southeast. Recent VWP observations across the
    eastern Plains have shown a pronounced increase in low-level winds
    (upwards of 50-60 knots at 1 km AGL) within the developing warm
    conveyor belt of the emerging cyclone. Concurrently, an increase in precipitation is noted from southwest NE into southeast SD as the
    strengthening low-level winds augment isentropic ascent as well as
    low to mid-level frontogenesis.=20

    In the coming hours, strong isentropic ascent and more focused lift
    within the frontogenetical circulation between 850-700 mb will shift east/northeast into southern MN and central WI as the surface
    cyclone begins to migrate east/northeast. Ascent through a deep
    layer, including through a somewhat shallow dendritic growth zone,
    will support a broad swath of heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1
    inch/hour.=20

    A combination of focused ascent within a frontogenetical 700 mb
    deformation zone and periodic convective augmentation (8.8 C/km
    mid-level lapse rates were noted in an upstream 00z OAX sounding and
    should be advecting into the southern flank of the deformation zone)
    will likely result in a narrow corridor of snowfall rates between
    2-3 inches/hour. Based on a consensus of recent guidance, this band
    will most likely emerge across southern MN into central WI during
    the 07-11 UTC time frame and will likely persist well into the
    mid-morning hours.

    ..Moore.. 03/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8cWbGjisvfzmlosNuIF-CTvcZRPg93W5_rS7QY984PEzL93lmatRec-xQKQ03Zm8sDNbFRgMG= 8dACV-ktf_71HmARgQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 45338876 45318807 45178757 45028729 44778720 44338741
    44068759 44078813 44149025 44169073 44049130 43519322
    43169443 43079499 43159547 43409578 43699585 43969558
    44469481 44809414 45149324 45339221 45389097 45338876=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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