ACUS11 KWNS 281645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281644=20
INZ000-ILZ000-281845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281644Z - 281845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail (near 1 inch diameter) and
wind damage will persist through about 19z across northeast Illinois
into northwest Indiana. A watch appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A slightly elevated storm cluster with some supercell characteristics, and a history of 1 inch hail and some wind damage,
continues to move east-northeastward at 50-55 kt across southern
Livingston and northern Ford Cos. IL. This storm cluster is
tracking near the surface warm front, and appears to be associated
with a subtle/embedded speed max approaching central/northern IL.=20
Modified short-term forecast soundings suggest the updrafts are
rooted slightly above the surface near the warm front with surface
temperatures in the low 60s, while somewhat larger surface-based
CAPE is confined to areas a bit farther south with temperatures in
the mid 60s. Long hodographs/strong vertical shear will continue to
support organized/supercell structures before the storms outpace the
somewhat greater buoyancy in IL, but the overall hail/wind threat
should be limited by rather poor low-midlevel lapse rates. As such,
a watch remains unlikely in the short term.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-9b1G3BqhpXUF7tgWXUYAfGEwoQJRys3EaD-eV-gPd4qzf5klW4b4IylYVOA8051iiLC6ruk= yUfwC-itmHrSUZTntI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

LAT...LON 40928665 40768790 40788812 41018835 41188827 41478784
41598736 41758682 41688642 41228631 40928665=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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