ACUS11 KWNS 281317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281316=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281316Z - 281515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, small to marginally severe hail may accompany
the stronger storms that evolve this morning.

DISCUSSION...Along the northern periphery of the evolving warm
sector and ahead of a developing surface low over eastern KS, a
broad plume of low-level warm advection will continue shifting
eastward while supporting isolated to widely scattered elevated
thunderstorms from northeastern MO into central IL this morning.
Here, an influx of steeper midlevel lapse rates from the southwest
(see TOP 12Z sounding) and modest low-level moistening amid a
relatively cool boundary layer will contribute to increasing (albeit
weak) elevated buoyancy (around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This, combined
with around 40-50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely
organized elevated storms -- posing a risk of small to marginally
severe hail and possibly locally strong gusts through the morning
hours. The overall severe risk is expected to remain
isolated/transient along this corridor this morning, with the
greater severe risk expected farther south later today.

..Weinman/Smith.. 12/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8G4BGe19JKs2h-PHXjQH6ij8WQY-su8hqSwBEaSII9MLVtGx0b2CvgEmyv02MWPaD-Vs__0gY= rZZ33HA9klNCtWQEkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 39659083 39479164 39549231 39829261 40219260 40419237
41198939 41258864 41058820 40778807 40438817 40198843
39908994 39659083=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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