ACUS11 KWNS 251012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251012=20
CAZ000-251115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...San Francisco Bay vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251012Z - 251115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts will be focused over the
San Francisco Bay vicinity over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from KMUX show an uptick in
convective intensity/organization just offshore of the San Francisco
Bay area. These small linear structures with embedded rotation will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts as they move ashore during the
next hour or so. While less certain, a brief tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out, given ample low-level flow/shear (around 450
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMUX VWP). The overall risk is expected to
remain too localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Smith.. 12/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Xm6r7MckSbE_w-RfmjgG2Q-d-yUfW3RH05nuLP4FDJ193WHAevE5t393lcX3kXojz3_wPSi2= lTySBkKPoyriFN2gtU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...STO...MTR...

LAT...LON 37062238 37672265 38192302 38342279 38282250 38052217
37452191 36982181 36822198 36812215 37062238=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)