ACUS11 KWNS 241311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241311=20
CAZ000-241445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...Central/Southern California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241311Z - 241445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized risk for strong to severe gusts and perhaps a
brief waterspout/tornado may increase over the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar data from KVBX over the last hour or so depicts a north/south-oriented band of shallow/cellular convection with
transient rotation streaming northward across the Channel Islands
toward Point Conception. Over the next couple hours, a modest
increase in boundary-layer moisture/low-level theta-e toward the
immediate coast and localized terrain effects may support some
increase in updraft intensity. Despite limited buoyancy, strong
deep-layer flow/shear and low-level hodograph curvature (200-300
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KVBX/KVTX VWP) may favor a risk of strong to
locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado with
any sustained surface-based convection that can evolve over the next
couple hours.

..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7BDUPBk3OxXxV-vC9LjYA6KcPynl-_SY1tjo0LRb9TFhm42Do9_9cE5IKQXDfoBa7TUDAvFsA= TAi9rKm8SRriQABrPY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...

LAT...LON 34351884 34131872 33981882 34011915 34281951 34331997
34392065 34572066 34692051 34711990 34561925 34351884=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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