AWUS01 KWNH 301641
FFGMPD
UTZ000-NVZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Areas affected...East-central Nevada...West-central Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301640Z - 302200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous small-cored convection within a
favorable repeating flow regime and possible back-building may
result in a few streets of .75-1.25" in 1-3 hours resulting in an
isolated incident or two of localized flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES 7.3um WV suite depicts a subtle shortwave at the
right entrance to a 50kt S-N jet along the northern NV/UT border
lifting northeast with typical back-arched upper-level cirrus
indicative of the very favorable divergent flow aloft. Upstream
the well defined drying also denotes the elongated main trough
axis extending from SE OR through central NV; with the core of the
west to east jet starting to nose southward delineating the mean
trough axis.=20

Low level response has been for enhanced return flow out of the
Lower Colorado River bending eastward along a surface to boundary
layer trough between the Salt Lake surface low and the southern NV
low. Pooled moisture mainly below 700mb has supported total Pwats
to 1" across the Salt Flats into SLC vicinity just along/ahead of
the leading shortwave; though enhanced values up to .8-.9" still
remain along the upwind edge. Some mid-level drying and clearing
over east-central NV has provided some insolation/heating to
support SBCAPEs nearing 1000 J/kg. In response to the DPVA, and
low level convergence at the nose of the low level moisture flux
feed; numerous small cored convective cells have begun to cluster
across S White Pine county, NV with hints of further Cu field
development across NE Lincoln county, NV into Millard county, UT.=20
While the cores are shallow (-45 to -50C tops) and narrow, there
is increasing coverage to support better moisture flux convergence
for enhancing rates to near .75"/hr over the next few hours.=20=20=20

Deep layer flow is broadly southwest to southeast parallel to the
surface trough and considering the overall longer wave trof is
filling at the base and shifting northeast, the deeper layer flow
should remain similar to allow for repeating environment. This
concurrent for upstream instability pool and low level moisture flux/convergence to support some back-building potential... all of
which will slowly shift eastward. Given all this, a few repeat
streets may allow for localized .75-1.25" totals in 1-3 hours.=20
Naturally low FFG values are about .75-1"/hr and 1-1.5"/3hrs
suggesting an isolated incident or two of localized flash flooding
may be possible through the afternoon/early evening while
instability pool remains viable.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8bR5yKjzVKRs6jBuMiXqmLNMmDXlRQeTqjnooRlFBRj2gxTI8Rwgd4km1QXzyJHJAWLs= H6Ty6cXJZFvKBuGeCP0eO2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40831256 40821165 40001141 39451159 38801201=20
38191282 37701405 37931487 38881502 39621464=20
40311387 40591326=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022228
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
627 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022222Z - 030310Z

SUMMARY...Localized but high rainfall rates are expected across
coastal sections of eastern/southeastern FL over the next 3-5
hours. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected, but locally
higher values cannot be ruled out which may lead to localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...22Z visible satellite and area radar imagery
indicated a narrow axis of showers/thunderstorms over Martin and
northern Palm Beach counties, extending offshore and oriented quasi-perpendicular to the coast. MRMS showed hourly rainfall
peaking in the 1-2 inch range. This axis and additional storms
were located just south of a low level gradient in moisture,
aligned from east to west as seen in the surface to 700 mb layer
on LPW imagery from OSPO. Higher values of low level moisture
extended southward from roughly Melbourne, while drier and more
stable air existed to the north. Total PW values were estimated to
be near 2 inches along the Treasure Coast where low level moisture
flux was maximized and MLCAPE ranged from 1000-1500 J/kg via the
22Z SPC mesoanalysis across southeastern FL.

Some subtle low level cyclonic rotation appeared in visible
imagery and 7.3 micron water vapor imagery which may be enhancing
lift across the eastern/southeastern Peninsula Relatively strong
low level easterly flow of 20-25 kt was in place and is expected
to maintain over the next few hours, oriented largely
perpendicular to central to south-central portions of the FL
coast, maximizing convergence. Transient axes of low level
convergence within the anomalous low level moisture plume are
expected to support the possibility of additional narrow bands of showers/thunderstorms which may be slow moving due in part to
opposing low level and upper level winds and mean steering flow
matching the orientation of convergence axes. Hourly rainfall of
2-3 inches should be easily attainable within any slow moving
heavy rain axes but the environment will have the potential to
support 3+ inches of rain in an hour as well. These high rainfall
intensities would support an isolated flash flood threat should
they overlap with the urbanized I-95 corridor, where runoff would
be more likely despite the otherwise high flash flood guidance
values across the region. However, the potential for these very
high rain rates should remain quite localized from northern
Miami-Dade to Indian River counties through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!__p112XPLqRR13rzSuD82BUNXbfgZHunFD9agprIMC6A_1z7u5mnb8TZSBBGnQG_7D8C= DqKHwqNbfJy_qIx3HCFQ4VE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27778055 27718017 27498006 26957984 26317981=20
25588006 25648054 26138057 26568054 26998074=20
27378075=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030342
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030341Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms across southeast FL will continue in the near-term.
Concerns for urban flash flooding will exist near and south of the
Miami metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some concentrated areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of southeast FL. Much
of the activity is currently situated near and south of Miami with
some relatively organized banding of convection that is
well-aligned with the very moist/unstable low-level easterly flow
impacting the FL Peninsula.

Satellite and surface data also show signs of a weak low-level
vort center near Biscayne Bay which is helping to concentrate an
axis of strong moisture convergence into the coastal areas in
between Miami and Homestead. MLCAPE values of near 1000 J/kg are
in place, with PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches.

Some cell-training concerns will exist over the next few hours
with the convective activity impacting southeast FL, and
especially with a persistently convergent low-level Atlantic fetch
into the region. Rainfall rates have already been reaching as high
2 to 3 inches/hour, and with any persistence of these stronger
convective cores, there may be some rainfall totals that locally
approach or exceed 5 inches. This is supported by some of the 00Z
HREF guidance.

Expect there to be at least some concerns for urban flash flooding
with these heavier rainfall rates and storm totals set up over the
next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!98UZoF4G0XdnPVYl7qoTSxbX3It1YKYOKQF0Sq7PDroixNuu6-KMzdtq7meHc1Y5QShB= t2qwfcqXCksXXWswGOrhleU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26168015 26028007 25758007 25328022 25278039=20
25478053 25968043 26158027=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/coastal Alabama, parts of the western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051945Z - 052345Z

Summary...A band of heavy rainfall will move slowly across the
discussion area, with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches occurring in
some areas through 2330Z/630p CDT. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a band of
thunderstorms that has exhibited upscale growth and slow forward
propagation along an axis from near Foley, AL south-southeastward
to around 85 miles SSW of AAF/Apalachicola, FL. This band was
moving slowly eastward, while individual cells were streaming
northward toward coastal areas near Foley and Pensacola, FL. The
band of convection was also exhibiting very localized training
near coastal areas that was resulting in an uptick in hourly
rainfall rates (into the 3 inch/hr range). These rain rates are
still falling shy of local FFG thresholds, suggesting that any
runoff issues may be isolated in the short term.

The band of ongoing convection should persist for at least another
2-4 hours given favorable low-level easterlies for
inflow/low-level shear, slight low-level warming (supporting
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE in the pre-convective environment), and an
abundantly moist airmass (2-2.2 inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes). Isolated flash flood potential
should slowly spread eastward along the western Florida Panhandle,
with areas near Pensacola, Eglin AFB, and potentially Panama City
experiencing heavier rainfall through at least 2330Z/630p CDT. 3
inch/hr rain rates will remain possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_L0h8AHIVf3mgL5bBPLCuReypkeugKzGNxZaZPk3XgpRN4TGgQ5uYihplk-TQbiY7fZS= Fs_hIJijViKdBjXFS1-p4bk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31018783 30978673 30658550 29928509 29608528=20
30218793 30748818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060741
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central LA into Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060740Z - 061340Z

SUMMARY...Localized backbuilding and training of warm-topped
convective bands early this morning across south-central LA up
into southwest MS may produce some isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows multiple warm-topped bands of very heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms impacting portions south-central LA up
into far southwest MS. The convection is associated with
increasingly convergent flow around the eastern flank of a low to
mid-level vort center lifting gradually northward into the Lower
MS Valley.

Locally enhanced moisture convergence is especially noted across
southwest MS right now, with a nose of MUCAPE values reaching 500
to 1000 J/kg stretching northward from the central Gulf Coast up
into southwest MS in close proximity to a surface trough. A
southerly low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts is noted around the
eastern flank of the vort energy, and with weaker deep layer mean
flow across the region, the Corfidi vectors are strongly
supportive of an environment for backbuilding convection. This is
being evidenced right now with the latest radar trends and
especially with the convective cells/banding occurring over parts
of south-central LA.

PWs are quite high and locally upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches, and
with this deep tropical environment along with elevated WBZ
heights, some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour.
Given the alignment of the convection with the deeper layer
southerly flow regime, there will be cell-training concerns at
least locally. Going through early this morning, there may be some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals that materialize. This may
result in at least some isolated concerns for flash flooding and
especially if any of the more urbanized areas are impacted.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4oRu_NwHnPpnEWMcW438fAYjV3yFpFQclLdJ0OOdPdGjo-3Wv2jUZ3ffNnOYin5X9pOl= Su7ksAZXIeS0p-ZIYbANpG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32789084 32249005 30908996 29759052 29529126=20
29819175 30439172 31349151 32309151=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061210
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of Palm Beach & Broward Counties in FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061209Z - 061809Z

Summary...Occasional convective bands could continue to set up in
and near the Gold Coast of FL, possibly into early this afternoon.
Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could lead to
isolated occurences of flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level disturbance across North FL combined
with precipitable water values ~2.25", 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE, and
effective bulk shear of 20kt or so has led to the development and
fading of a couple convective bands across east-central Palm Beach
and northeast Broward Counties, downwind of the northwest Bahamas
and within an area of low-level convergence near a stationary
front. A more active convective band lies offshore Broward County
at the time of this discussion's writing. Hourly rain estimates
have approached 2" with the Palm Beach county band and above 1"
near Deerfield Beach.

The expectation is for convective bands to occasionally shift
south/reorganize in different locations with time, primarily
across Broward County, though additional activity in southeast
Palm Beach County can't be ruled out. The mesoscale guidance (via
the HREF and REFS probabilities) indicate the threat of heavy
rainfall in and near the Gold Coast perhaps as late as 18z with
some possible southward shift/reorganization which seems to follow
a slight southward nudge of the highest moisture in the region.=20
Until the bands dissipate or become less organized at some point
this afternoon, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4SZmsLD6fVmAlGZcsn3_ADjbNKkRCq6LhLl8BVguG67mpQK2vSw4G6JD6Y3vf_czwosm= p2INOnsxNkSdgXHi41affrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26758005 26498002 25958013 26038037 26588037=20
26738031=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061338
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061637-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast LA and southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061337Z - 061637Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms are possible over the next few
hours roughly between Baton Rouge LA and Prentiss MS. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals are possible where
cell training occurs, which would be most problematic in recently
saturated and urban areas.

Discussion...A training band of convection remains active across
south-central MS at the present time, while another area of slowly
developing scattered convection near Baton Rouge aligning.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2.25" per GPS data. ML CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg persists to the southeast of a low- to mid-level
disturbance near southeast AR. Effective bulk shear across the
region is 20 kts or so, which has fostered convective organization
at times.

The concern is that the scattered aligned convection in LA
continues to slowly build, consolidate, and train in the next few
hours, potentially advecting downstream into areas that receieved
5-10" of rain this morning per radar estimates. The remaining
convective band is also a source of concern for another 2-3 hours.
Where training occurs, hourly amounts to 2.5" with additional
local amounts to 4" would be possible, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and were soils have recently saturated.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-HlW0Z7_20mpjxmZ3pPVoB8ronlYjmCSXAac0erYyKyg3YLk3QST8fpprRAMQE2LJqJi= m34tWFprAZ8Qzr9Tr17YJjA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31938979 31228976 30489041 30149122 30169166=20
30619135 31359058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061622
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast of Florida into Central Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061625Z - 062100Z

SUMMARY...Strong, directed onshore flow with strengthening
upstream low level flow, to support back-building training across
the Space Coast with highly efficient 2-3"/hr rates pose localized
urban flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and KMLB RADAR shows strong
back-sheared thunderstorms crossing Cape Canaveral into N Brevard
county with slow weakening/disruption into the central Peninsula
as some dry air mixing is resulting in low level convergence
outrunning the deeper layer steering. This reduces the vertical
depth of moisture flux convergence and rainfall generation.=20
However, nearer the coast; upstream increased deeper layer
moisture (including increasing 700mb RH) is maintaining broader
convective development within an East to West band north of Grand
Bahama into the Cape. MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg are solid given the
narrow skinny/moist profile with depth. Combining to the vertical
ascent is entrance to the 30-40kt 3H jet streak along 30N east of
79W, is providing solid divergence aloft to help maintain the
depth of rainfall production.

Deep layer moisture of 2.25" and flux convergence given upstream
winds of 25-30kts decelerating into the coast will allow for
continued 2-3"/hr rates with a favorable back-building
regenerative environment. Eventually, the forecast is for the
outflow/jet entrance is to slide further east and reduce the
divergence aloft; however, there is some trends in satellite
loop/imagery that suggest the convection may be adding
to/strengthening the jet in a narrow axis. If this were to occur,
longer duration will increase overall localized totals of 3-5".
Small southward wavering of the onshore axis is expected to help
spread the heavy rainfall footprint. Given proximity to urban
locations and sheer rate, localized rapid inundation/flash
flooding is considered possible.

A bit more uncertain, is how far downstream into the Central
Peninsula this will extend. Each bout/updraft cycle will further
moisten the low level environment and allow further downstream
extension of the narrow heavy rainfall (E-W) corridor. Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a westward translating convergence wave
lengthwise through the Peninsula, but current trends of upstream
development suggests coastal training remains more likely for the
greatest overall totals.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_G_ivsMkCGAo5PcurhnL7tIjaOrAE5fAtUtL0T9LF25M4UDunV-Rv3NUQEeihD7bCFhL= QWOiAWx9KYghJ7ltvqgu7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29148147 29078097 28798063 28398036 27788042=20
27848101 28378168 28728191 29038184=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061828
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Mississippi...Coastal
Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061830Z - 070000Z

SUMMARY...Reinvigoration of convective bands will have similar
potential for back-building and short-term training resulting in
2-4" totals given 2-2.5"/hr rates. Localized flash flooding
remains possible through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E GeoColor Visible imagery shows well defined
surface to mid-level circulation along the LA/AR border with broad
warm advective regime along the eastern hemisphere across much of
MS into SE LA. Surface analysis shows some weak reflection in
pressures further south than the wind circulation along the
border, but a defined frontal zone extend along the MS River into
the Atchafalaya Swamps of south-central LA...east of it higher
theta-E air with increasing temperature spreads into the 80s over
Tds in the mid to upper 70s. Early morning south to north
convective line exists along the eastern side of the warm sector
before low to mid-level clouds have been keeping temps in near the
Tds north of the warm front from GLH to north of JAN to E of HBG
and south to Mobile Bay. Surface to boundary layer moisture
pooling along the warm front intersects with SSW LLJ across SE LA
into central MS where Total PWat values are well above average in
the 2.25"+ range. The confluence of the conveyor belts has
resulted in strong moisture flux convergence generally coincident
or just north of the expanding instability wedge. MLCAPEs are
increasing from 1000 to 2000 J/kg from the warm front southward to
the Gulf; providing the strength for vertical development.

Recent GOES-E Vis/IR loops along with regional RADAR mosaic
denoted leading edge of old outflow and intersection of the warm
front has seen increased convective vigor and vertical depth in
the last hour or so. While winds are generally 20-25kts through
depth, it is the strong confluence with height that present the
stronger convergence to tap the unstable air. Moisture flux of
the high moisture will result in increasing rain-rates of
2-2.5"/hr. Steering flow will allow for south to north training,
though momentum and some weak cold pool generation should allow
for some eastward propagation to limit overall duration. Spots of
2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash flooding
concerns.

Additionally, GOES-E WV suite denotes a weak inflection along the
cold front near the Gulf coast lifting northeastward within the
larger shortwave lifting north through the MS Valley, this is
indicative of some increased low-level jet streak to support
upstream back-building. In addition, while not in the core of the
warm conveyor belt, convergence along the cold front toward the
triple-point could see even slower, but shallower thunderstorms
capable of intense rainfall as well. The potential of upstream
development in proximity to the front could expose areas of
lowered FFG from this morning's thunderstorm activity and
reaggravate flooding concerns there as well. As such, have
expanded the MPD area of concern to the cold front to encompass
this lower confidence, wider scattered activity and flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5kqEn9ABgoaBy83TKamWfey1bpNGDWezyGFebiIOwJen41FITHNy3dd_b7IFD7cu0YYL= wKg-hUtcEvZN9uQo-AnY7Vw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34698960 34158873 32378849 31398795 30508763=20
30178795 30268891 30088985 30109055 30369132=20
31569090 32719080 33569100 34289043=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070130
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070129Z - 070700Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of northeast AR and western TN over the next several
hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, and
especially around the more urbanized areas such as Memphis and
Dyersburg.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined surface low and associated mid-level
vort center continues to lift gradually north-northeastward up
across eastern AR this evening and will be advancing through
adjacent portions of the Mid-South and toward the Lower OH Valley
by later tonight.

The energy is fostering a concentrated area of very heavy rainfall
currently over portions of far northeast AR and along the MS River
just to the west of Memphis, TN. Enhanced southerly warm air
advection and moisture transport is surging northward around the
eastern flank of the surface low and vort center with the aid of a
southerly low-level jet reaching as high as 30 to 40 kts.

This is allowing for a substantial amount of tropical moisture and
at least modest instability to be focused in close proximity to
the low center and also downstream of it nosing across far
northwest MS and into northeast AR through western TN. The latest
RAP analysis shows as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
these areas with PWs of 2 to 2.25 inches.

Additionally, some very strong moisture convergence is noted
around the immediate northeast flank of the surface low and vort
center itself, and radar is showing a corridor of enhanced
convection producing extremely high rainfall rates in association
with this. Overall, the larger convective footprint shows
relatively warm convective cloud tops, but over the last hour
there has been a substantial cooling of tops just west of Memphis
where some rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are occurring.

Over the next several hours, this concentrated areas of very heavy
rainfall should still impact portions of northeast AR, but will be
advancing increasingly into western TN.

Expect there to be notable concerns for urban flash flooding in
the near-term around the Memphis metropolitan area along with the
adjacent suburbs as this concentrated axis of heavy convective
rainfall near to the low center advances off to the
north-northeast. Additional downstream areas such as Dyersburg may
impacted as well. Expect in general there to be scattered areas of
flash flooding becoming likely even outside of the urban areas
given rainfall totals that may reach 3 to 5+ inches in a localized
fashion going into the overnight hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8iD9eiigab60asRk0DqBfwLb5TOdbLAP1AJZWBdRnj2z9bVJOvV6JQGVdAL_2A0USz4y= mnNCF-5FCd9UJ4fPrNmXczQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36548906 36168811 35378841 34758980 34599092=20
34679124 35139143 35869089 36229023=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070921
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-071520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid South and Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070920Z - 071520Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall still impacting portions of the Mid-South
early this morning will become increasingly focused across the
Lower OH Valley over the next several hours. Some isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible where any
cell-training of showers and thunderstorms occur.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined surface low and associated mid-level
vort center is beginning to edge into the Lower OH Valley along
with a pronounced surge of tropical moisture. A southerly
low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts continues to focus rather strong
warm air advection and moisture transport around the eastern flank
of the low center, and this combined with modest instability and
some upper-level jet divergence should support broken areas of
heavy rainfall overspreading the Lower OH Valley this morning.

MLCAPE values are only on the order of 500 to 750 J/kg, but the
moisture convergence parameters are rather strong around the
northeast flank of the vort energy and especially near the low
center itself. This is favoring some stronger convective elements
with highly efficient rainfall owing to warm rain/relatively
shallow-topped convection. Some embedded colder convective tops
are occurring in sporadic bursts, and these smaller scale clusters
of convection have been capable of producing rainfall rates on the
order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

As this energy begins lifting northeastward across the Lower OH
Valley this morning, there is expected to be some gradual
interaction with an upstream cold front approaching the OH Valley
from the northwest. This will support a more frontogenetical
component to the heavy rainfall threat and should support a more
elongated southwest to northeast axis of heavy rain with embedded
convection.

The 00Z HREF/REFS suites of guidance support some localized swaths
of 2 to 4+ inches of rain going through late this morning, with a
spotty 5+ inch total not out of the question where any
cell-training of convection occurs. The heavier and more
concentrated areas of rainfall should be close to the OH River
involving areas of far southeast IL, western and northwest KY and
into far southern IN.

Antecedent conditions across the region are generally on the dry
side, but the rainfall potential this morning is expected to be
enough to drive a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. This will especially be the case in vicinity of the more
urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6s984LwdmtyLfd2gxOGVFuAgG_GO4HI8oTRXsdnDZ6HV7Ny2Ua9ua4PoKj_JB5_fo7N6= O_aOSlDrcjOZRCS4qTLPxWM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39008471 38588377 37748383 37098453 36388586=20
36088694 36008780 35988834 36028894 36278967=20
36758973 37398939 38028844 38508736 38958580=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071501
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern IND...Northern & Central
KY...Southern OH...Far Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071500Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rainfall with embedded weak
convective elemented within a long training profile into confluent
low to mid-level flow downstream of cyclone pose localized 2-3"
totals over 3-6hrs suggesting scattered incidents of flash
flooding remains through afternoon.

DISCUSSION...14z surface analysis depicts an elongating SW to NE
surface low across Southwest KY as the mid-level shortwave
continues to advance into the lower Ohio Valley into increasingly
confluent flow aloft. A new triple point-like feature near OWB
appears to be helping to back the low to mid-level higher moisture
flux flow enough to maintain some solid convergence to tap the
remaining conditionally unstable air of 250-500 J/kg along and
downstream in proximity to the stationary front which appears to
have taken residence in the Ohio Valley, proper. Solid deep layer
moisture through the confluence stream remains well above normal
at 1.75-2.1" of total PWats though CIRA LPW denotes the
elongation/shearing of the moisutre axis as the surface to 850
remains upstream near the low and slow advancing cold front, but
700-500mb slug has shifted toward Northern Kentucky and southern
Ohio.

Still the oblique ascent across the effective boundary is further
elongating the isentropic ascent that has moderate shield precip
and weak convective entrainment, increasing further to the west.=20
The flux is enhancing showers to .25-.75"/hr and given the
orientation into the confluence zone further strengthens training
profile and axis of 2" may result prior to even the arrival of
stronger flux/deeper convective cores capable of 1.25-1.5"/hr
though average more close to 1" for an additional 1-2 hours. This
should result in 2-3.5" totals with a low possibility of a
localized 4" total across the area of concern through the
afternoon.=20

The flashy, rapid rise concerns are low and likely very isolated=20
but prolonged moderate rainfall, FFG values in the 3-6hr range are
still about 2-3" along the frontal zone/training axis. This still
suggests exceedance remains possible with scattered incidents of
flooding especially in very poor drainage areas, such as urban
settings.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zZYIDwQf5bA7j5eVlGmC3eBSDbPZDSRiwc1NMkbgb7XXALrWMDtbLRRSMTz9O2--0gn= N1-caWr24-YYI4nclUtk__4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39578261 39348191 38818177 38358197 37888263=20
37568380 37178594 36918765 37568756 38218703=20
38748564 39258429 39468337=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071746
FFGMPD
NMZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Central to Eastern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071745Z - 072345Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and totals over 2", especially near Sacramento Mountains posing
localized incident(s) of possible flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows the surface to boundary
layer increased moisture indicated by banked up stratus east of
the Sacramento mountains and through the saddle and into the far
southern Sangre de Cristo Range. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis
confirmed by surface Tds in the mid to upper 50s of this enhanced
low level moisture with nose angling out of the Pecos River
Valley. Solid upslope is deep enough to have bled through to the
westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry line
noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn Range.=20

Water vapor suite denotes an elongated shortwave across central AZ
with a weak mid-level baroclinic leaf downstream into west-central
NM angling out from the higher cirro-stratus in the sub-tropical
jet that is centered across southern NM. The strong directional
shear across the area has resulted in effective bulk shear into
the 30-35kt range in central NM, suggesting organized, broader
updrafts once destabilization occurs. Currently, the cloudy
nature east of the terrain is limiting insolation but temps
upstream of the terrain in the Rio Grande Valley are reaching
mid-70s and where the moisture stream overlaps, SBACAPEs are
starting to increase over 1000 J/kg. While upslope flow has not
begun in earnest, the limited capping and weak divergence aloft at
the entrance of the subtropical jet streak has resulted in some
mid-level activity increasing as Lightning-cast Probability are
reaching 60-75% over the next hour with some of the TCu features.=20
Still believe this is a bit too early for the strongest updrafts,
but these seeds could sprout earlier than the 20z expected
destabilization noted in most of the recent Hi-Res CAMs.=20

Low level winds should further back and strengthen to 15-20kts and
further enhance deep layer convergence in the Sacramento
Mountains. Initially anchored updrafts, may result in localized
1" totals, before expanding and slowly decoupling from the
terrain. The bulk shear suggests some rotation which will
further increase moisture flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates. RRFS is most aggressive, but does not seem unreasonable,
especially representation of convective mode. These cells are in
general proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is
more likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at
this time scale but locals should remain weather-aware.=20

As the afternoon progresses to evening, as upstream shortwave
slowly drifting northeast into NW NM toward the late evening,
upslope flow is expected to continue and strengthen
through/westward past the terrain and expand convective initiation
further north and west with time. Spots of 1-2" in hard pan
ground conditions may result in additional localized incidents of
flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8qqmcRz_YfiCGHaDKUaSlSAfSvoqEJyqTtHFcf3bf208VUCzu6xdMIee9bniVr9P45V= lmtTCRM8hEW9kSwQ3KmbAwc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35850583 35650481 34390379 33330365 32630441=20
32330510 32350589 32900652 34020639 34720647=20
35260626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071955
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast KY...Southern OH...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072000Z - 080030Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of training moderate showers with
ending burst of intense rain near surface low, pose longer term
flooding concerns with isolated rapid rise/flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of elongating southern
stream shortwave continues to advance much faster than the
low-level/surface features into increasingly confluent flow in the
Upper Ohio River Valley. This vertical tilting further displaces
deep layer moisture structure as total PWat values continue to
reduce from 2" toward 1.75". Additionally, much of the area has
become stable with limited <250 J/kg of CAPE. However, the warm
conveyor and moisture flux convergence remains solid and more
importantly elongated along the ill-defined boundary across NE KY
into the Ohio River. Oblique ascent from 25-35kts of 850mb
southwesterly flow to the boundary more WSW to ENE and larger
scale downstream divergence continues to broaden the moderate
precipitation shield.=20

Rates of .25-.5"/hr continue within the broad moderate shield
expanding as far east as the middle slopes of the Allegheny
Plateau. However, the western edge of the warm conveyor belt has
an associated surface low intersecting the boundary near KLEX,
providing stronger convergence overlapped with modest mid-level
drying has allowed for some conditional instability to reach
500-750 J/kg. As such, GOES-E 10.3um shows some solid convective
cores still cooling below -60C, suggesting an ending punch to the
training moderate showers with a cell or two capable of
1.25-1.5"/hr. So with 1-1.5" capped off with an additional 1-1.5"
in about an hour, may result in a streak of additional 2-3" across Northeast/Eastern KY into W WV before fully weakening in favor of
stronger forcing/backing flow to the northern stream frontal zone
dropping in across central IND/OH.

While the area has been dry, natural lower FFG values of
1-1.5"/1hr are less likely to be exceeded but 3-6hr values of
1.5-3" have a slightly higher potential. So the rapid rise
flooding may be a bit more tempered, but FLASH unit stream flow
values across much of central KY have been between 400-650 cfs/smi
and even a slightly reduced value across the rugged terrain across
NE KY into far S OH/W WV, are likely to remain above 300 cfs and
suggest some flooding conditions are possible through the
remainder of the evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6PMFqgw0bUH_lhpOmA9qsmp426tNy_jwGDoF3r_-1Fns65Eoqa4JuJbqAO4RkZgJKSg0= dN5JEwA0k6F5cwuh0v0dsVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39318159 38988102 38468101 38018128 37698206=20
37628247 37608353 37798422 38308467 38798423=20
39078336=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072346
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072344Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2", especially near
Sacramento Mountains, pose a localized threat of flash flooding
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery showed a surface boundary
across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico while
RAP-based moisture flux convergence maxima were mainly along or
near the boundary with late afternoon/early evening surface Tds in
the mid to upper 50s. Upslope is deep enough to have bled through
to the westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry
line noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn
Range.=20

The cloudy nature east of the terrain has limited insolation but a
combination of late afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s
south of the front and dewpoints in the 50s has resulted in some
pockets of surface based CAPE values in the 750 to 1000 J per kg
range by 07/23Z. While upslope flow has not begun in earnest, the
limited capping and weak divergence aloft at the entrance of a
subtropical jet streak could result in additional showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of an
inch per hour due to destabilization noted in most of the recent
Hi-Res CAMs and recent mesoanalysis. The environmental bulk shear
suggests some rotation which will further increase moisture flux
convergence to support 1.5"/hr rates. Any cells in the general
proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is more
likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at this
time scale but locals should remain weather-aware.=20

As the evening progresses, upslope flow is expected to continue
and strengthen through/westward past the terrain and expand
convective initiation farther north and west with time. Spots of
1-2" in hard pan ground conditions may result in additional
localized incidents of flash flooding.

Bann

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8SjtSo5E--B0tQtfF9Ws5zNfujQop4RC5bEE_xFeQDbqK7XfwUDJuPHs642xdVdVVqIh= vqu1x4_TeWGQeTWwh-nUO48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35200531 34270390 33540329 32280341 31790406=20
31440489 31360595 31750647 31900762 33070770=20
34450722 35160634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081950
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Areas affected...West-Central to Central NM... Adjacent Northeast
AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081950Z - 090130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving thunderstorms may result in spots
of 1-2" totals in less than 2 hours, posing isolated localized
flash flash flooding conditions. Adjacent

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and KABQ RADAR shows a sizable cluster
of convective development across portions of west-central NM
terrain (west of the Rio Grande Valley). An ill-defined frontal
zone seems to be a confluent/pooling agent for southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow and moisture advection out of the Rio
Grande Valley. Tds in the mid 50s in the upslope regime while
upper-level flow provides favorable divergence aloft at the apex
of the anticyclonically curved sub-tropical jet originating out of
the Sea of Cortez and across S NM. The confluent flow at the
curvature of the front along with the upslope component appears to
be allowing for the greater overall coverage/clustering.=20

Prior to development, solid insolation and the lower moisture
profile and modest drying aloft has supported 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
and with the southerly/southeasterly confluent flow along the
gradient of overall deeper moisture (favorably loaded in the lower
profile per CIRA LPW) suggests modest rainfall efficiency for
these cells as they mature. With the upper-level jet and weak
directional shear, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts suggests some
weak organization and perhaps some weak cell rotation to further
enhance moisture flux into the updraft column. Mean winds of
20kts, slightly deflected due to any weak rotation along with
favorable upslope initially to help lock the up/downdraft to the
terrain for a few hours suggests some increased duration of modest
rates. As such, rates of .75-1"/hr are possible resulting in
localized 1-2" totals in 1-2 hour time frames suggest localized
flash flooding could occur in an isolated to widely scattered
nature, with obviously higher potential in/around burn scars in
the vicinity through the afternoon into evening hours in the area
of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fLzURgYh2hPEArJHx1LUn7qW2LDZUh_QthgNfmuM3Rvtw1xGUb70eODADTng5l5NHaI= 8nmpQ9XP3YLuBgb_HWuM2pY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36340704 36130620 36050606 35300549 34430565=20
33820564 33420563 33460608 33610627 34250646=20
34490671 34450703 33610734 33510812 33530857=20
33960902 34480944 35170954 35780915 36300790=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091731
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast to Southern Peninsular Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091730Z - 092300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms within a deeply rich moisture
environment along inverted trof/tropical wave, will focus for some
2-3"/hr rates and localized totals of possible 5" may result in
rapid inundation flooding conditions through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible loop and 17z surface analysis depicts
a confluent SW to NE axis extending across the Everglades toward
the southern Space Coast with increasing convective activity
concentrating along it. Low level tropical moisture exists
through solid depth with mid 70s in surface and sfc-850mb LPW
values near 1". This continues through 700mb, but along that
confluence line/inverted trof, mid-level dry air from the
northeast in the 700-500mb layer demarcates the boundary even
further, south of which, the TPW values are over 2.25" nearing
2.4" locally. Solid early morning sun and limited capping on the
skinny profiles has brought temperatures well in the mid to upper
80s and support MLCAPEs of 2000-2500 J/kg even with fairly moist
adiabatic profiles.=20

The streamline flow noted in satellite, is generally 10-20kts per
VWP providing strong moisture flux convergence through depth along
the axis for scattered to numerous updrafts. Flow aloft is
reverse to the low level flow providing some vertical shear but
not ideal for prolonged organized structures but the tilt will
allow for some upper-level divergence/outflow to maintain stronger
updrafts. As such, the strength of flux convergence and depth of
moisture in deep warm cloud (13-15Kft) will support efficient
rainfall production with capability of 2-3"/hr rates. Cell
motions suggest east to west transient 15kt cell motions, but
linear confluence features would support some repeating/training
to allow for some localized 5"+ totals, with the 16z HRRR even
suggesting localized totals over 7", so it is not completely out
of the realm of possibility if training is prolonged/ideal but
given the nature of the flow is still less likely than more.=20=20 Irrespective, the intensity of the rates into the 3"/hr range
would still result in localized rapid inundation flooding
especially in the east coast urban corridor, but also could affect
portions of Alligator Alley and other cross peninsular roadways.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7-I_yw0hYy9DAMXPNVB--mZEs64xggjnymLIGIYY67zch5p4NfEQCKBrsaoUZk6JguX= pCX2gehTg30_eJZBXlUMxT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28178090 28128055 27788035 27338016 26907999=20
26047999 26048056 25998104 26028147 26378168=20
26928149 27288137 27668127 27898117=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092036
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Arizona...Southern Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092035Z - 100200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of small core thunderstorms embedded
with moderate shower activity. Localized .5"-.75"/hr rates over
very flashy basins and multiple south to north rain bands may
allow for some cross tracks and totals of 1-1.5" resulting in
localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Environment is starting to show initial signs of
waves/bands of convective activity expected through the afternoon.
CIRA LPW and RAP analysis also denote leading edge of enhanced
subtropical moisture has grown deep enough to over-top the
Mogollon Rim and is lifting northward through the San Francisco
Plateau, Tds in the upper 40s to mid-50s have been noted and
pockets of total PWats over 1" have started to be
observed/analyzed. Clear skies has provided ample insolation to
support increased SBCAPEs 750-1000+ J/kg with rapidly reducing
CINH capping across the Plateau.

GOES-W WV shows bulge of ideally anticyclonically curved
outflow/sub-tropical jet from Priscilla, as well as broadening
diffluence to its northwest under influence of the approaching
northern flow/polar jet streak. Current divergence is small but
effective for the initial band of showers along the AZ/UT border
with recent uptick in embedded convective showers. The enhanced
moisture flux and weak convergence associated with the broad scale
ascent appears to support some rates of .5"/hr so far.

As the evening progresses, the divergence pattern is expected to
increase with approach of embedded waves through the sub-tropical
stream. This will increase overall coverage and the smaller cored
convection is expected to broaden with upstream redevelopment
along the Mongollon Rim and volcanic peaks within the broader
Plateau. General north to north-northeast propagation will allow
for the potential for multiple bands resulting in random
intersection with prior rainfall footprints. Localized 1-1.5" are
possible, though most of the area of concern has naturally very
low FFG at .5-1"/hr (especially in south-central and SE Utah) and
less than 1"/3hrs. While overall coverage/totals are not
expected to be sizable, a random scatter shot of widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding are clearly possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Cg1SRRfM8bjwrGfmNTYyzPb8aJMeT4Dy58m8lKQlWopQJzdXfGxiJb7Yzd7IeTE32jo= 78vsqHqpbBetEj8iQU53vvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39491037 38740955 37710952 36910977 35921049=20
35061158 34641310 35111391 36261394 37071312=20
37621245 38261202 39211140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092101
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nevada...Southeast California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092100Z - 100200Z

SUMMARY...Training showers/thunderstorms capable of .5-.75"/hr and
localized streaks of 1-2" may result in localized flash flooding
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW, VWP obs and RAP analysis, shows surge of
subtropical moisture through the Lower Colorado Valley on 15-20kst
of south to southeasterly confluent flow. Total PWat values have
increased to over 1.25". Strong convergence along the tight
moisture gradient has providing a sufficient differential boundary
for isentropic ascent. Deep layer profiles are not particularly
unstable (100-250 J/kg of CAPE) given the mid-level warming, but
the strength of deep layer moisture convergence generally
coincident with a combined diffluent portion of the polar and
subtropical jet noted in GOES-W WV suite was sufficient to allow
for elevated convective cores to develop, maintain and even expand
upstream toward the San Bernadino Range. Total Pwats of 1.25"
and moistening of the sub-cloud is allowing for some increased
rainfall rates of .5-.75"/hr.=20

Upstream shortwave energy rounding th western edge of the
sub-tropical ridge shows some additional cumuliform mid-level
clouds indicative of upstream energy and potential for further
upstream redevelopment/back-building environment. As such, with
deep layer steering generally oriented parallel to the ascent
boundary there is increasing potential for repeating cores and a
streak or two of 1-2" totals. Limited soil conditions and low FFG
values of .75-1.25"/3hrs suggests localized flash flooding is
possible within this band for the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TjeaugyAH17AL9diwgM5BcLIY8OnJF-Axeu_Gq9oefrHLEt_4bexssdL27yk5C-UbTB= LLkVtwYYZibVHg6AJcdJ3sI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37971501 37571416 36171431 34711595 34491710=20
35291750 37001667=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100105
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100704-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100104Z - 100704Z

Summary...A few hours of heavy rainfall are expected along the
east coast of Florida tonight. Local rainfall totals of 2-5
inches can be expected where convection is most persistent. Flash
flooding is possible in both urban areas and where coastal
flooding can hinder runoff processes through at least 07Z/3a EDT.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection is persistent within a
strongly confluent low-level regime along the east coast of
Florida. These storms have initially persisted over open Gulf
Stream waters, but recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a slight
uptick in isolated convection over land areas especially just
north of Melbourne. The storms are in an environment
characterized by 2+ inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE,
supporting efficient rainfall processes. Additionally, low-level
easterlies veering to westerly aloft was promoting slow storm
motions that - when combined with favorable thermodynamic
parameters - will ultimately support a few areas of 2 inch/hr rain
rates at times.

Both observations and models suggest that the ongoing pattern
supporting rainfall should evolve very slowly over the next 6
hours at least. Spots of heavy rainfall (2 inch/hr rain rates)
should remain common on an isolated to scattered basis -
especially along coastal areas where updrafts will have access to
slightly greater instability located just offshore. Areas of 2-5
inch rainfall totals are expected.

These rain rates will occur over urbanized areas along the I-95
corridor from near/north of Daytona southward to around Ft.
Pierce. Isolated, urbanized flash flooding is possible through
07Z/3a EDT. Additionally, with onshore flow promoting localized
coastal flooding and hindering runoff in some areas, flooding
could become exacerbated by heavier rainfall on a localized basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8XwLr0VmFqtMdKnadkE1jKfI_RSgw7DUVPW8r3c0R2Yn7aXQ7B_DWYDXrSHvpIgMitOs= 6x_EYw4DpCV2NdqsCZ-sJsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29938160 29578066 27977976 27108007 28248124=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100143
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-100541-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of the southwestern U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100141Z - 100541Z

Summary...Scattered convection continues to produce isolated backbuilding/training and a few spots of rain rates exceeding 0.5
inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis for the
next few hours (through 06Z/11p PDT).

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to drift northeastward
across a broad part of the Great Basin currently.=20
Stratiform/shallow convection has been noted in many areas,
although deeper convection with more focused training has resulted
in an extended period of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates near Pahrump, NV
and adjacent areas of southeastern California. Convection in that
area is likely experiencing influence both from increased
mid-level moisture associated with Priscilla and weak mid-level
shortwave troughs related to a larger mid/upper wave west of
California.=20

Sufficient surface-based instability exists for convection to
continue occasionally backbuilding/training for a few more hours
on an isolated basis. Areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates should
continue at times, with training resulting in local 1+ inch
rainfall totals. Training axes like the one near Pahrump may
develop on an isolated basis across northwestern Arizona,
southeastern Nevada, and far southern Utah. Farther south along
the Lower Colorado River Valley, weaker forcing should continue to
keep flash flood risk isolated along with somewhat weaker rain
rates.

The greatest risk of flash flooding over the next few hours should
remain focused across southern Nevada, southern Utah, and
northwestern Arizona through 06Z/11p.=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QiGbK05Ojo2s8N5uZuNkYv2PeIMAIJHAhIZtRJ5FIuF-clUTSL0K7Zm8uWjRyTJ3Wzd= TVrZS-UEq--pVNn3fDrcfJQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38751243 37611100 35681166 33291308 33181548=20
34651693 36601644 38201538=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101748
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...central/northern AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101745Z - 102230Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding appear
likely to develop from portions of central and northern AZ into
southern UT through the afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely but within axes of training, hourly rainfall over
1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...Between 1530-1730Z, regional radar imagery has shown
an increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms extending in a SW to NE axis from central to
northern AZ. These storms were located within a highly anomalous
moisture plume, extending downstream of T.S. Priscilla which was
located west of the Baja Peninsula. OSPO ALPW imagery showed the
mid to upper level reflection of Priscilla beginning to cross the
central Baja Peninsula and standardized PWAT anomalies across the
Desert Southwest were +4 to +5 above the mean with 12Z sounding
values at VEF (0.92 inches) and FGZ (1.27 inches) well above the
SPC climatological max for October 10.

Despite overcast skies, weak solar insolation was helping to boost
instability across the region with some pockets of 500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and a broader coverage of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE shown on the
17Z SPC mesoanalysis. Fairly unidirectional southwesterly winds in
the low to mid-levels will promote area of training where
confluent 700 mb winds are located from western to central to
northeastern AZ. RAP forecasts indicate some strengthening of the
700 mb flow through 00Z which may act to increase coverage of
cells through the afternoon. Subtle vorticity maxima embedded
within the southwesterly flow aloft across the lower CO Valley
will also likely contribute to development of convection over the
next few hours. A continued increase in instability is expected
through peak surface heating which will help to support locally
higher rates which, given the remnant tropical moisture, may
support sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in ~30 minutes.
In addition to heavy rain overlapping with urban areas or burn
scars, areas of flash flooding will be most likely within slot
canyons, small streams and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fhNyipkb54HKzFWYzeGgKOFZkUl8yibXkLxsmv7AzdcSUPhiVTEU6vbKNW_lNUqbCMW= aZ2pa8pxQgloNG1hzf1UA0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38810953 37960957 35671017 34351135 34111300=20
35111413 36811378 37651320 38451206 38781062=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101943
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern CA, southern NV into central UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101940Z - 110140Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand in
coverage over portions of southern CA, southern NV into central UT
over the next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is
expected along with isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery from 1930Z showed mostly
clear skies over the desert regions of southern CA into southern
NV and central UT, northwest of an extensive cloud shield to the
southeast. This region was located along the northwestern edge of
an anomalous moisture plume with standardized anomalies of PW
between 3 and 5 above the mean via the 12Z GFS. SPC mesoanalysis
data from 19Z showed 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across a majority of the
MPD threat area, but areas of low level inhibition remained,
especially across southern CA into NV.

Based on continued heating of the surface and advection of
moisture seen in OSPO ALPW imagery within the surface to 700 mb
layer, streaming north of Priscilla in the eastern Pacific,
further erosion of convective inhibition is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon. Convective development appears likely
within the next 1-2 hours, first over areas of higher terrain and
then spreading into the lower elevations with time. Some
augmentation of divergence aloft, within the right-entrance region
of a developing upper level jet max over southern NV will be
possible, aiding in the general forcing for ascent.

Unidirectional flow, generally from the southwest, will promote
areas of repeating and short term training within subtle low level
confluent axes. Coverage of cells may only become widely scattered
but the moisture-rich environment will promote efficient rainfall
production with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain in an hour expected.
These high rain rates are likely to result in at least isolated
areas of flash flooding, with a particular focus across any
population centers and burn scars, while otherwise impacting any
low lying and normally dry stream beds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8n0YZyRg_lRWv0PSZqz8psF9S-5A5bx8N5kI8ye1FG0rnFnmrsk281Y6QRNxwz1PmToJ= 1se-mmr7K4vc6iZuzvl_2ew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39891291 39781057 39280943 38760947 38571076=20
38211182 37571281 36281369 34951444 34281507=20
33701587 33911680 34441741 35521712 36691669=20
39011531=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102235
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...lower CO Valley into central/northeastern AZ and
northwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102230Z - 110330Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible from the lower CO River Valley across central AZ
into northwestern NM through 04Z. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely within stronger cores and isolated hourly totals
in excess of 1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor and OSPO ALPW imagery at 22Z
showed mid to upper level moisture from Post-T.C. Priscilla
streaming northeastward across the northern Baja Peninsula/Gulf of
California. Regional radar imagery showed a few stronger
reflectivity cores moving northward from Mexico into southeastern
CA and southwestern AZ, co-located with the upper level moisture
plume advancing into the region. Farther north, a broken SW to NE
axis of showers/thunderstorms extended from southwestern AZ into
northeastern AZ, along a remnant differential heating boundary and
along the White and San Francisco Mountains. Despite the highly
anomalous moisture plume in place across the entire Southwest
region, instability has been rather fragmented due to extensive
cloud cover limiting the coverage of higher rainfall rates up
until this point.

However, given the pockets of relatively higher MLCAPE that exist,
according to 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data, some locally higher
rainfall rates can be expected over the next 3-5 hours. 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed 500-1000 J/kg over portions of eastern AZ into
northwestern NM and into southwestern AZ, albeit with varying
degrees of inhibition. As the mid and upper level energy and
moisture plume from Priscilla continues to advance downstream
across the Southwest, the potential for increased rainfall
efficiency will exist within low level axes of confluence. These
axes of confluence will occasionally align with the deeper layer
mean steering flow from the SW, supporting repeating and training
of heavy rain cores. Isolated to widely scattered hourly rainfall
of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be possible, generating possible flash
flooding, especially if overlap occurs with an axis of 1 to 3+
inches which has fallen over the past 24 hours from near Phoenix, north-northeastward across I-40. In terms of coverage, if recent
WoFS cycles are any indication, 6-hr probabilities of exceeding 1
inch are less than 40 percent and quite isolated across AZ into
northwestern NM.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4M6w_YQ7TUizrI6ojZcY1oE6sc2O0vb4mcFnty_hSt-Uwhh2PFR9h_3IfCbc_h14VgeB= 3S7PWx8ftXhr6vXBYW69jWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36220988 36120807 35090798 34030943 32581118=20
32061270 32181445 32741528 34131506 35341290=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110153
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, southern
Utah, and far southeastern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110152Z - 110552Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely across the discussion
area, with locally significant impacts noted near the Las Vegas
area.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to migrate
northeastward along an axis from near Las Vegas metro
northeastward to near St. George, UT. The cells remain embedded
in an environment characterized by abundant moisture 1-1.75 inch
PW values and sufficient surface-based instability for robust
updrafts (1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Despite appreciable cell motions
(around 20-30 knots), these cells were producing areas of 0.5-0.75
inch/hr rain rates - enough to prompt local flash flood
occurrences near the Las Vegas metro area. Localized training is
also aiding in promoting higher rain rates on a localized basis.

The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should continue for at
least a few more hours. Low-level southerly advection beneath an
expansive rain shield across the CA/AZ border region (Lower
Colorado River) has stabilized the airmass in that area, and some
of this stable air may work into the discussion area from the
south. This stabilization, combined with nocturnal boundary layer
cooling, should result in a gradual weakening trend with most
convection through 06Z/11p PDT. Despite the anticipated weakening
trend, the overall synoptic environment (with forcing from
Priscilla's remnants to the south and a larger-scale upper trough
near northwestern California) may continue to favor isolated
convection (and localized flash flooding) where surface-based
instability remains.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Jdk6OFcssdUL7VS0etkLp9eFcyqu60lBp3b6XIlLWIh9tEK6kdMQ5NReK5L-dQaWucF= YG37iFyInTAiKcPtjCcDujg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39071213 38351111 36601219 34201531 35791688=20
37251612 38791414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110329
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-110928-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...much of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110328Z - 110928Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as remnants of Priscilla
approach Arizona. Heavy rainfall will become more widespread for
a few hours tonight, causing instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Mid-level remnants of Priscilla are approaching
Arizona from the southwest. Ascent associated with the remnant
system has resulted in widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity across western and central sections of the state along
with 0.5-2.5 inch rainfall totals. The downstream airmass across
the discussion area remains abundantly moist (PWs ranging from 1
inch in the north to 2.1 inches southwest). Surface-based
instability is maximized across southwestern parts of the state
(1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and becomes minimal with northeastward extent.
The environment continues to support widespread light rain along
with locally heavier rain rates. Per the latest MRMS data, a few
spots along the CA/AZ border and in terrain-favored areas of
central AZ have exhibited rain rates approaching 0.5 inch/hr.

Ongoing trends are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. Precipitation may increase in intensity in a few areas as
ascent from Priscilla approaches from the southwest. The heaviest
rain rates will materialize as convective cells interact favorably
with moisture/instability across southern sections of the state
and orographic ascent locally raises rain rates near the Mogollon
Rim. Rain rates approaching 0.5-0.75 inch/hr remain a good bet on
at least an isolated basis over the next 6 hours (through 09Z/2a
PDT). Areas of excessive runoff and flash flooding are expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s4mU2M4gKkfDKiII_txtBqRkRtjtGn3Pp4nG-GTR18GdfHaa_HQcp_3IdlOPjILY1yB= BmiaVG0D3r5YSkvOuuR8Wqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36461134 35660954 33490958 31771059 31851301=20
32741462 34551414 35311358=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111901
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into western/central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111900Z - 120100Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 01Z (7
PM MDT/6 PM MST) across southeastern AZ into western and central
NM. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected where showers/thunderstorms align and train, and isolated spot storm
totals near 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery showed a lead shortwave
trough extending from western CO into northern NM tracking toward
the east, associated with light to occasionally moderate rainfall.
Southeast of this feature, visible imagery showed a mixture of
clouds and mostly clear skies from southeastern AZ into central
NM. The environment across the region contained highly anomalous
moisture, with contributions from the tropical east Pacific,
represented by +3 to +4 standardized anomalies of PWAT. While
there was drier air aloft, the 18Z sounding from TUS contained a
PWAT of 1.66 inches (well above the climo max for mid-October) and
250 J/kg MLCAPE with a stable warm layer centered near 800 mb.
Where better heating is occurring across the region, instability
is likely a bit higher with 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing 500+
J/kg over much of southeastern AZ.

Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to support
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg later this afternoon over southeastern AZ,
with values closer to 500 J/kg into portions of NM. While a few
thunderstorms have been noted within a few disorganized cells
moving into western NM, additional development is anticipated with
better heating and weak forcing ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave and broader height falls ahead of a large upper trough
moving into the western U.S. In addition, an organizing upper jet
near 300 mb is expected to provide some added support in the form
of divergence and diffluence within its right entrance region over
the southern AZ/NM border.

As cells increase in coverage, mean WSW flow could promote some
repeating and brief training of cells into the early evening
hours. Expected hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected
which may result in some isolated flash flood issues atop
sensitive terrain, normally dry washes and/or remnant burn scars
widely scattered across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vCZEOPLBt_AWvq-2nEyqh9zBSynSEPL7AVgbfrlDg9vDEXhDd7I6VQtGBAeZrEsTFKK= 6zVrJVaJlhNaoqRmjngsdDg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36230587 36050524 34620519 32930553 32410667=20
31830775 31230822 31160914 31091108 31621185=20
32611165 33581051 34680912 35800739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120514
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-120912-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...far west Texas, extreme southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120512Z - 120912Z

Summary...Conditional flash flood potential exists around the El
Paso, TX area for the next few hours.

Discussion...Deep tropical convection associated with the remnants
of Raymond continue to stream from northwestern Mexico into far
west Texas currently. Recent radar/MRMS observations depict
training/repeating with a recent uptick in convective intensity in
a cluster about 35 miles southwest of El Paso. Rain rates remain
modest, however (around 0.25 inch/hr), but an uptick in rates has
been noted southwest of El Paso also. The cells are in an
abundantly moist environment with 1.3-1.6 inch PW values.=20
Additionally, 1000 J/kg MUCAPE was sustaining stronger updrafts
and likely resulting in the convective uptick noted in recent
radar trends.

These cells are likely to persist northeastward into the El Paso
area over the next 2-4 hours. Rain rates may be marginal for
flash flooding, although urban impacts in/near El Paso appear to
be possible. Rain rates may both 1) exceed 0.5 inch/hr and 2)
persist for longer than an hour, both supportive of excessive
rainfall potential.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4uTcT5x5bOUWNZ6xNC_M0PQQni-ylZF99KF4dcC-e-UpbGBmZ9ZnOAIgL_ENvhR_QDJb= HyBxkQsydWHXrkGj-D_bCgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32780684 32610532 31840485 30350475 31490627=20
31730817 31380832 31570901 32220855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120538
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-121037-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northwestern Arizona, southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120537Z - 121037Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are quickly developing across
the discussion area and producing 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. A
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm activity is being forced by the
approach of a stout mid-level disturbance over Nevada currently.=20
The storms are embedded within a warm/moist axis along the
Colorado River, with 0.7-0.9 inch PW values and a narrow axis of
1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the Nevada/Arizona border area.=20
Convergence within this axis was also supporting ongoing updrafts.
The storms were embedded in relatively fast deep layer flow
(approaching 50 knots per objective analyses), resulting in quick
storm motions. Localized backbuilding and training were the likely
mechanisms for enhancing local rain rates.

Unfortunately, these rates were falling in/near areas prone to
flooding, with slot canyons and local burn scars noted in the
area. Ongoing trends are expected to continue for at least a few
hours. Fast eastward storm motions may tend to carry some of the
convection eastward toward a slightly drier airmass with weaker
buoyancy, resulting in weakening. Meanwhile, some backbuilding
may occur within the remaining warm/moist axis in northwestern
Arizona, contributing to a localized flash flood threat there.=20
Models suggest that this convective threat should be relatively
short-lived, ending by 09-10Z as cooler/drier air filters into the
discussion area from the northwest.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_0SwQEhlfDReAPwWpzIzQjUrALF3GxWI77foRe-9F-okottKbSMgqIipQ7bHdyOkUkPX= -mHgrcbUliWrMtohKG6aF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091207 37391099 35451202 34491323 34561438=20
35911468 37381378=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120812
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120811Z - 121411Z

Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage through at least 13Z/7a MST this morning.=20
Areas of flash flooding are expected during that timeframe.

Discussion...Larger-scale ascent was beginning to overspread much
of the Southwest due to a stout mid-level wave centered over
Nevada and northwestern Utah. Meanwhile, a pool of 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and weak inhibition has supported development of scattered
thunderstorms from the Phoenix area east to near Globe. The
storms are embedded in a moist airmass (1.1-1.5 inch PW values),
supporting rain rates at or above 1 inch/hr in the strongest
cells. Relatively quick movement has been noted owing to 40 knots
of mean steering flow. However, as cells continue to expand in
coverage and intensity, local mergers and backbuilding should also
bump rain rates to above 1 inch/hr at times. The flash flood
risk will increase as a result.

Models/CAMs suggest that the greatest concentration of
thunderstorm activity will reside along and just south of the
Mogollon Rim through 13Z/7a MST this morning. This includes the
Phoenix Metro area. Much of the discussion area remains well
ahead of any low-level boundaries that could stabilize this
airmass, and with continued ascent/height falls over the region,
flash flood potential will likely extend beyond 13Z/7a MST. Both
urban and sensitive/low-lying areas will have the greatest flash
flood risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5KHFFKLCfKHP79HS4HKsVvL2N0a3s-xJb_9m1OwSChAQUXuANbCvsiVKZ0v7LtkRGvIq= u6ucjJEG3YhQQhL9CEz7PrU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34471072 34050941 32830932 31381045 31801316=20
32601435 33471431 33951357 34201246=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121201
FFGMPD
SCZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/northern SC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121159Z - 121530Z

Summary...Localized high rain rates will continue a localized
flash flood threat for the central and northern coastline of SC
for another few hours. Hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches can be
expected at times.

Discussion...Localized heavy rain in and southeast of Georgetown
has resulted in MRMS estimates of 6 to 10 inches since midnight,
with a few Wunderground.com observations showing 6-7 inches in the
city and along the coast. A strong surface low (991 mb) has been
slow moving and was analyzed 115 miles east of Georgetown at 11Z
and a slow moving low level convergence axis has focused an area
of heavy rain containing hourly rainfall between 2-3 inches over
coastal Georgetown County over the past couple of hours. While
some weakening has occurred, VAD wind data showed ~50 kt of
925-850 mb winds oriented from the northeast, parallel to the
coast at KTLX, veering to a weaker and more perpendicular
orientation at KCLX. Aloft, a potent divergence maximum was
located along the coast of the Carolinas within the left-exit
region of a 90-100 kt jet streak, east of an upper low located
over the FL/GA border.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low finally begins to
make some northward progress over the next 6 hours along with a
disruption to the nearly stationary low level convergence axis due
to further weakening of the low level flow over southern NC and
veering of the low level winds along the central SC coast over the
next few hours. This should allow hourly rainfall values to lessen
while translating southward through 15Z. Until then however,
continued slow movement of heavy rain will maintain a localized
flash flood threat along the Grand Strand with additional rainfall
of 3 to 6 inches possible before expected weakening of rainfall
intensities.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9M6bl6rYLJauILWID5zfksfrEPk_qS1vLL9uhykKPT9FQF1fRT8Ctn6Vte8xF_bVNp0Y= 77fIcq5-CJ3JROmH5IY1qzk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33947966 33887900 33737869 33557848 33107858=20
33007873 32907930 33058024 33238047 33468048=20
33698029 33888006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/southern AZ into western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121400Z - 121830Z

SUMMARY...Scattered Thunderstorms are likely to continue a few
areas of flash flooding across central/southern AZ over the next
3-5 hours, possibly extending into western NM. Hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be found within areas of training.

DISCUSSION...1330Z radar imagery across south-central AZ showed
scattered thunderstorms, with a history of backbuilding and
training, despite individual cell motions off toward the ENE at
20-30 kt. OSPO ALPW imagery showed that the cells were located
just ahead of a slow moving, north-south oriented, 850-700 mb
moisture gradient found over the lower CO River Valley with
notable directional shear between the KYUX and KIWA 850 mb wind
vectors. The moisture plume over AZ remained anomalously high with contributions from former T.C. Raymond in the eastern Pacific. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 12Z estimated PWAT values between 1.0 and
1.5 inches over the southern half of AZ along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE over south-central to southwestern AZ. In addition, AZ was
situated within the right-entrance region of a 130+ kt upper level
jet max extending from southern NV into northwestern CO.

RAP forecasts over the next 3-6 hours show weakening 850-700 mb
moisture transport into southern AZ but some increase in
instability is expected over southwestern AZ due to the onset of
daytime heating and continued jet-induced divergence aloft will
remain. So while there are some conflicting signals for continued
thunderstorm generation, lingering forcing for ascent should
maintain thunderstorm formation over southwestern to south-central
AZ over at least the next 2-4 hours. Mean steering flow from the
WSW will continue periods of training as some backbuilding
continues to occur, resulting in hourly rainfall of at least 0.5
to 1.0 inches, but idealized training could result in 1-2 inches
in an hour. A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue,
especially within the near-saturated ground conditions across the
I-8 and I-10 corridors to the SSW of Phoenix.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CvMA4CCxnaj_imwspYmaKZ96HLsNeVMrki7GJBp4PWN5OG2h-rTDQx7H_mf8HNXVA86= 8E44IHoniiUZxA8NDcsDLso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34750934 34160876 33390883 32380957 31781075=20
31521189 31641255 32091427 33051418 33751272=20
34511103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121631
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northern SC coast into southern NC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121629Z - 122200Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain a concern along the
northern coast of SC into the southern coast of NC into the
mid-afternoon hours. High rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected
at times, which may overlap with wet soils across the Grand Stand
region and/or the Wilmington metro.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery showed that a surface low
offshore of the NC/SC coast has moved a little north since 12Z and
was estimated to be 993 mb and ~90 miles east of North Myrtle
Beach at 16Z. A strong axis of low level convergence southwest of
the surface low continued to focus an area of heavy rain along the
coast of Horry County, with local Wunderground observations
showing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches since 13Z and 2-5 inches of
rain since midnight. Strong convergence also existed north of the
low along and just offshore of the southern NC coast along an
occluded frontal boundary as seen in visible satellite imagery.
Despite the strong convergence along the NC coast and 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE, deep convection has been lacking. In addition to this
area being beneath the dry slot of the cyclone as seen on water
vapor imagery, the 12Z sounding from MHX is telling, indicating a
warm nose at 675 mb, capping the otherwise weakly unstable
sounding.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low will continue a slow
northward motion through 00Z with an elevated instability gradient
hugging the NC coast, with 1000+ J/kg just offshore but quickly
lowering to <500 J/kg for inland locations. Low level convergence
to the southwest of the surface low will likely continue to focus
heavy showers/thunderstorms with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall for
another couple of hours, despite weak instability. This area may
drift or refocus just north of its present position.

Farther north toward Cape Lookout, it would only take cooling of
~2 C within the warm nose noted on the MHX sounding to support the
production of deep convection which would be capable of hourly
rainfall between 2 and 3 inches given the forecast of near
stationary movement of the coastal convergence axis. While this
development would be highly conditional, it is worth highlighting.

Therefore, while localized, a flash flood threat will remain
likely from the northern SC coast into the southern NC coast
through 21 to 22Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-MGmYAWFLP-8h-N2F2SLpu7JCGZPpXWLFV4r3tDZoxOW7cV0nQYMFNcr8PGC8l-ePmiE= UAiROu1FlKZ5wG-PtqmGJDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35057725 34887687 34707655 34447646 34227663=20
33727769 33157852 33087933 33497983 33887982=20
34417925 34737862 35047795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southwestern to south-central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121828Z - 130025Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding appears likely to
continue over portions of southwestern to south-central to
southeastern AZ through 00Z. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour
or less time should be expected within training of stronger cells.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor and visible satellite imagery
at 18Z showed thunderstorms forming just ahead of the southeastern
leading edge of a longwave trough over the western U.S., and
within the right-entrance region of an associated 130-150 kt upper
level jet max over northern AZ into UT and western CO. A WSW to
ENE axis of thunderstorms has been persistent over the past
several hours from southwestern AZ to locations just south of the
Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ. These storms were forming within
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs of 1.0 to 1.5 inches per 18Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. Also of note, visible imagery showed a surface
low over the northern Gulf of California, with warm/moist air
feeding northward to the east of the surface low into northwestern
Sonora and southern Yuma County.

Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to continue
regenerating over southwestern AZ, with low level moisture
transport on the eastern side of the Gulf low, with individual
cell movement toward the ENE. Farther to the east, visible imagery
showed outflow propagating southward from Pinal and southern
Maricopa counties into northwestern Pima County. Surface heating
between breaks in cloud cover over south-central and portions of
southeastern AZ should allow for increasing instability with peak
heating this afternoon. Development of additional storms along
outflow and diurnal development along areas of higher terrain,
south of the ongoing WSW to ENE axis to the north, should increase
thunderstorm coverage through 21Z-00Z.

The combination of these several different forcing mechanisms
should support scattered coverage of thunderstorms through the
afternoon along with isolated to scattered coverage of flash
flooding with hourly rainfall totals maxing out in the 1 to 2 inch
range and potential for isolated totals near 3 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oN7bYhG37msCKXOgYR3jbNNsmojlcqoqFccUKN3uUyV6GLvhIHTFLF6BVQ2Y-Ux3gjy= rmnzjmZ1qqBXuMYwNMp7KRg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34011025 33890934 33000896 32010906 31380965=20
31111064 31291187 31921376 32161455 32591460=20
32891345 33711147=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122202
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SC...Southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122200Z - 130400Z

SUMMARY...Highly concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will
continue to foster flash flooding impacts, some potentially
significant, across portions of northeast SC and southern NC going
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A strong coastal low continues to positioned just
offshore of southeast NC to the east of Wilmington. A combination
of this and the relatively strong area of high pressure over
southeast Canada continues to channel a strong and very moist
low-level jet into the western flank of the low center where there
is currently a strongly forced environment for heavy rainfall and
embedded convection.

The 850/925 mb flow across southeast NC and into adjacent areas of
far northeast SC is on the order of 40 to 50 kts. This is yielding
strong moisture convergence which coupled with a nose of modest
instability with MUCAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg and notable
divergence aloft for deep layer ascent is continuing to foster
highly concentrated areas of very heavy rainfall.

In fact the last radar imagery shows an axis of extremely heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms impacting Columbus County in
southeast NC, and wrapping westward into Horry and Dillon Counties
of northeast SC. Rainfall rates are currently on the order of 1.5
to 2.5 inches/hour across these areas, and some rainfall totals
here of 3 to 6 inches have occurred in the last 6 hours alone.

Fortunately, the heaviest rains have pulled away from areas of
northeast SC (especially along the Grand Strand) that were hard
hit this morning and midday from very heavy rainfall totals, but
the slow movement and concentrated nature of the current activity
near the SC/NC border will support notable concerns in the
near-term for additional heavy to extreme rainfall amounts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible at least locally
this evening, and this will favor additional areas of flash
flooding, some of which may be locally significant.

By later this evening, the surface low should begin to weaken as
the low becomes more vertically stacked, and this will allow for
the deeper layer ascent to subside along with the rainfall rates.
Therefore, conditions are expected to gradually improve later
tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L8ZzFVuIyGn9B93YrY6I7bclVPXxiM0vD4PqVPCOyRwbcANCiayCfYMOHLE0e-0QMqj= t96ZY9h5wCl_OqufwQHJsHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34927906 34877804 34537752 33917775 33647859=20
33087923 33298005 33948033 34537994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130015Z - 130515Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the evening hours. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...There continues to be the redevelopment of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of southern AZ, with
the late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery showing scattered areas
of moderately cold-topped convection. The activity continues to be
fostered by an unstable and moist boundary layer characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with presence of
favorable right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics.

Moisture remains well-entrenched across the region with PWs of
1.25 to 1.5+ inches which for this time of the year are a solid 3
to 4 standard deviations above normal. Some of the moisture at
least in the low-levels across southern AZ is being aided by
southerly flow off the very warm and moist northern Gulf of CA
which has been facilitated by placement of a weak area of low
pressure and an associated surface trough.

This moisture coupled with the instability continues to support
convection capable of producing high rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour. Additionally, there is a fair amount of effective
bulk shear overhead with magnitudes of 30 to 40+ kts. This coupled
with the instability has been yielding some organized convective
structures with enhanced updrafts and thus sustainment of heavier
rainfall rates.

The loss of daytime heating suggests at least a gradual weakening
trend of convection by later this evening, but at least for the
near-term, there should continue to be sufficient levels of at
least modest deep layer jet-aided ascent and instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. Local orographics
involving areas of terrain will also facilitate pockets of
convective sustenance.

Additional rainfall totals by late this evening may reach 2+
inches where any convective cells persist or locally repeat over
the same area. This may drive some additional pockets of flash
flooding which will mainly be a concern for the normally dry
washes, but could also involve some localized urban impacts around
the Tucson metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YEL2OR_R9nVQKu6jESrZY6TyJn6HIQPQyFv9I-sxKXKZtGhC_v6tKrAWMpvr3SV9Ayr= BlzC6WR-t86FsYtTyHMzgj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32860959 32520906 31880894 31470910 31220981=20
31221119 31341186 31741295 32181308 32541273=20
32661217 32671099=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132231
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AZ...Western/Central
NM...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132230Z - 140430Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas
of central and eastern AZ through western and central NM along
with southwest CO. Given elevated streamflows from recent rainfall
along with locally high rainfall rates this evening, additional
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with regional
radar data shows a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of central and eastern AZ through western and
central NM, with an emphasis on areas near and adjacent to the
Mogollon Rim. The convection continues to be enhanced by the
gradual northeastward advance of modest shortwave energy that is
embedded within the deeper layer southwest flow ahead of a
stronger upper-level trough and closed low dropping south along
the West Coast.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across areas of south-central AZ and separately across far
northwest NM and far southwest CO near the Four Corners. The
instability in particular over south-central AZ continues to
combine with moist low to mid-level southerly flow to support
convection with high rainfall rates that are occasionally reaching
1.5+ inches/hour. Elevated effective bulk shear is also favoring
some organized multicells and persistence of the activity that
coupled with orographics into the Mogollon Rim is yielding heavier
rainfall totals.

More recently, satellite imagery has been showing some greater
vertical depth of convection across western NM and also in a more
cellular manner across parts of southwest CO where improving
instability and moist upslope flow into the San Juan Mountains is
fostering an uptick in stronger thunderstorm activity.

Going through the evening hours, as moist flow and at least modest
instability continue to interact with the aforementioned shortwave
energy and favorable orographic environment, there should continue
to be broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Additional
rainfall amounts may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches where any
cell-training occurs, and this is consistent with a consensus of
18Z HREF/12Z REFS model suites.

The antecedent conditions are quite wet, and especially over areas
of the Mogollon Rim and the high country of southwest CO near and
adjacent to the San Juan Mountains. Given the additional rainfall
expected this evening, there will likely be more potential for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doVrWLjkwQa72VYniJNk6xk1yGikKd6Rti1oorXg66cVvPKz9cZGGsOU9oSXa0LDLGE= 6mPmcEvU8gOdRrz06ahPmiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38440769 38300643 37560577 35720564 34050625=20
33160789 32890989 32981093 33441197 34381233=20
35001172 35211039 35750938 36450879 37770835=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central CA Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132315Z - 140515Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will
impact areas around the Bay Area through early this evening. While
spreading gradually farther south along the coastal ranges, some
of these heavier rains should spread into portions of the Central
Valley. An urban flooding threat will exist, and especially around
the Bay Area, with an isolated burn scar flash flood threat as
well over some of the adjacent higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper-level
low continuing to deepen as it drops southward just offshore of
the West Coast. A rather strong frontal structure associated with
these height falls coupled with enhanced upper-level jet
divergence/forcing overspreading the central CA coastal ranges,
including the Bay Area, along with adjacent portions of the
Central Valley will support areas of heavy showers and potentially
a few stronger thunderstorms going through the evening hours.

A nose of MUCAPE values reaching 250 to 500 J/kg is noted along
and just ahead of a developing frontal occlusion near the Bay
Area, and radar imagery has been showing an increase in linear
bands of convection along and just ahead of the front as it pivots
inland from the coast. Deep layer forcing is expected to
strengthen this evening which coupled with moist Pacific flow
should favor some linearly oriented bands of convection to
potentially make it even into parts of the Central Valley.

Lowering ELs associated with the upper low and modest instability
will favor low/warm-topped convective elements in this dynamically
forced environment that will be rather efficient and capable of
producing rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour.

The relatively high rainfall rates coupled with favorable upslope
flow into the coastal ranges will support some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
rainfall totals. Generally, the interior areas of the Central
Valley will see lesser totals, but some of the stronger convective
elements here that occur may foster some locally excessive totals
of 1 to 2+ inches.

Concerns will exist for some urban flooding, and especially around
the Bay Area through early this evening. Some of the area burn
scars will also need to be closely watched for at least an
isolated concern for flash flooding and debris flow activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81rbhW0x8wR3EO92eXMf25Y-xC4pJGG5MjnbkZfa-pUGIzV2eud_0tr7iX73qqqvfje-= GwodklBZKSVXr2hLPCfeBy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40672288 40552224 39362123 38122061 36672049=20
35892024 35372018 35252070 35542130 36122186=20
36792231 37442256 38762273 40092333=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140535
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140534Z - 141134Z

Summary...Strong onshore flow will continue to promote areas of
heavy rainfall, with rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr becoming possible
along upslope terrain areas. Flash flooding is likely -
especially where heavier rainfall can materialize across burn
scars and other sensitive areas.

Discussion...A strong mid-upper low centered just west of San
Francisco continues to move very slowly while promoting strong
onshore flow across coastal areas of central California. Cold
upper levels has fostered areas of 500 J/kg MUCAPE, promoting
heavier rainfall in occasional convective bands that have traveled
toward land on the southern and eastern peripheries of low. A
belt of strong low- to mid-level flow (around 30 knots at 850mb)
is oriented parallel to coastal ranges between Monterey and San
Luis Obispo and was also aiding in heavy rainfall via orographic
lift. The heaviest rain was located along and just ahead of a
cold front that was migrating southward along the coastline near
Monterey.

Over time, the strongest of onshore flow will shift southward
along the coast toward the Transverse ranges. 1-1.2 inch PW
values and minimal instability will continue to promote heavy
rainfall and rain rates exceeding 0.5 inch/hr at times. Areas of
southern California (including the Transverse Ranges and Los
Padres National Forest) will likely experience the heaviest of
activity through 12Z. Local burn scars will enhance rainfall
potential, and typical low-lying, flood prone spots will also be
susceptible to flash flooding.

An additional area of lighter rain is likely to be maintained
across portions of central California and the southern San Joaquin
Valley. Rain rates should be a bit lighter in most of these areas
(0.1-0.5 inch/hr), but should persist for several areas and cause
at least minor runoff issues.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dO1Xb2Ee8YLBuIuvDf85AIky-PetUOunsyiThjwn7Y8rlK121JgeIM0rNgFvnj-c9eT= go8jJRBI5P6kxqAQQc-DrW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38842155 38022017 37111947 36371911 35691934=20
35001888 34561784 33881774 33511810 33921923=20
34602076 35982190 36902208 37802222 38582215=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141239
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141838-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141238Z - 141838Z

Summmary...A band of showers and thunderstorms should continue to
move east with time. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" and local
totals in the 2-4" range are possible, which would be most
problematic in area burn scars.

Discussion...A narrow plume of moisture and instability near an
incoming front and ahead of a cold low to the west-northwest of
San Luis Obispo is expected to continue moving eastward through
southern CA this morning. Precipitable water values of 1-1.1" per
GPS data and MU CAPE of 250+ J/kg exist in this region.

HREF guidance shows a high chance of 0.5"+ in an hour, though very
low chances of 1"+, which fits the available ingredients. As
instability winnows with time, the potential for 1" amounts should
decrease. The mesoscale guidance suggests local amounts in the
2-4" during the next six hours. Locations with the most concern
would be area burn scars, which would be more susceptible to
runoff/debris flows.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ufGLYKOP3DvquOzB86le3R3uxQpJxz2mBWSXE2K_3KzVyoYR-B7DXWvA1xvNFvERdMP= Kj5w75GoM8zlDlV1JUBMTKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891939 34771818 34551743 34491729 34311662=20
33891676 33151731 33591833 33631836 33941868=20
34001916 34191957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141826
FFGMPD
CAZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141824Z - 150015Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
will maintain a threat for areal flooding impacts including
potential burn scar flash flooding going through early this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level low and an associated frontal
occlusion continues to drop gradually down across southern CA. The
latest GOES-W visible and infrared satellite imagery shows the
leading edge of the cold front and heavy rainfall continuing to
advance through the Los Angeles Basin, with a substantial amount
of post-frontal shower activity maintaining pockets of locally
heavy rainfall.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger convective elements along
the front and also into the southwest-facing slopes of the San
Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains have been upwards of 0.50" to
0.75"/hour, and these rates are likely to be maintained at least
for a few more hours as the axis of stronger moisture transport
and convergence with the front continues to advance southeastward
down the coast with an approach on the Peninsular Range.

However, post-frontal instability associated with steepening
mid-level lapse rates closer to the upper low will combine with
low-level cyclonic flow into the terrain to maintain plenty of
shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms going through this
afternoon and early this evening. Additionally, the stronger
dynamics associated with the digging upper-level low and influx of
Pacific moisture wrapping northward up into the upslope areas of
the southern Sierra Nevada and also the southern parts of the San
Joaquin Valley will continue to foster areas of heavy rainfall
here which will include a threat for some intense low-top
convective showers.

The heaviest additional rainfall totals should generally be across
parts of the San Gabriel Mountains and especially the San
Bernadino Mountains where as much as an additional 2 to 3 inches
of rain may fall (below snow line) by this evening.

Lowering snow-levels in time will tend to mitigate some of the
runoff potential for the highest terrain, but sufficient rainfall
over especially the Pacific-facing slopes and into some of the
urban areas is expected to maintain concerns through early this
evening for areal flooding impacts and some burn scar flash
flooding. Rockslides and some localized debris flow activity near
and downstream from burn scar locations will continue to be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83FIFmAZaUM2GZvSWjpAzgDb6wd4huOGcng7Ub5DWl4vbFkk3gdakmRFYie4oeWgfNL2= gvwbxQkRB4_o43BTnrHX9WY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36621923 36061849 35241815 34811741 34361675=20
33991649 33341652 32631664 32571701 32781734=20
33401770 33651827 33791851 33911881 34061919=20
34151938 34291957 34441994 35251986 35902019=20
36312014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150525
FFGMPD
NMZ000-151123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150523Z - 151123Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing over
south-central New Mexico near Truth or Consequences. Areas of 0.5
inch/hr rates were already being observed. These rates could
increase to around 1-1.5 inch/hr at times while moving northward
across the state. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were developing in the southern Rio
Grande Valley of New Mexico over the past hour. These cells were
drifting northward at around 25 knots. They were also embedded in
a relatively narrow axis of weak to moderate instability (1000
J/kg SBCAPE) and moisture (1-1.2 inch PW values), supporting brief
heavy rainfall. The orientation of this convection (with movement
parallel to the moist/unstable axis) was promoting localized
training/repeating cells, with rain rates peaking at around
0.5-0.75 inch/hr per MRMS. Low-level convergence on the nose of
southeasterly 850mb flow across the eastern Plains was also
contributing to ascent along the moist axis in tandem with subtle
height falls from a larger-scale system centered over California.

Each of these factors all point to a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area over the next few
hours, with storms drifting northward toward the central part of
the state. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur on a spotty
basis. FFG thresholds exhibit spots of thresholds as low as 1
inch/hr in the discussion area, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff. Additionally, a few burn scars in the vicinity
may support excessive runoff on a localized basis.

Eventually, the combination of convective overturning and
nocturnal boundary layer stabilization will lead to a decrease in
convective coverage (and attendant flash flood potential).=20
Low-level convergence may also slacken toward 10Z as 850mb flow
veers to more southerly across the eastern Plains, decreasing
convective potential as well. These processes will take a few
hours to play out, with isolated flash flood potential persisting
through at least 10Z/4a Mountain Time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ReaygMsm86PXcG_rHp7rBfT2EdmFiuvKZ-K63YsskLunA1cM-ami3emW1Xk-CwkjbLI= Whsnzo8WpliTI3gaTv-DBmA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36710485 36150431 34220501 32500611 31880695=20
32030839 33680809 35790721 36470604=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160227
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-160815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...northern NM into southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160225Z - 160815Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 08Z (2
AM MDT) from northern NM into southern CO with peak hourly
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0 inches.

Discussion...02Z GOES East infrared imagery, lightning data and
MRMS reflectivity showed a broken line of thunderstorms stretching
from Rio Arriba County in northern NM into southern portions of
the CO Rockies. Additional convective development was beginning to
strengthen to the southeast of this axis, near Los Alamos and
Santa Fe. These thunderstorms were occurring out ahead of a potent
closed mid-level low tracking east through the Great Basin and
associated cold front at the surface. Instability via ABQ's 00Z
sounding and 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE between
500-1000 J/kg along with anomalous PWATs between 0.6 and 0.9
inches. Aiding ascent was divergence within the right-entrance
region of a 110+ kt upper level jet extending from eastern UT into
central WY.

Within the lingering instability over northern NM and southern CO,
additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next few
hours as the upper trough and cold front move east. Steering flow
is unidirectional from the SSW which could support some repeating
and brief training, containing hourly rainfall up to about 1 inch.
This will promote a very localized flash flood threat, which will
mostly stay focused across sensitive burn scars and any shallow
creeks or low water crossings.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9I9xdFVxTL3vOwEpa1JcByNqp-50AWQAvmbPEt5XUN0EeMmSpBINvCQb-OKHv89mNLC1= DeXenphqlok7yBazRX1ljSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37990562 37750483 36860430 35870490 35100584=20
34920660 35160697 35490707 36270704 37340655=20
37750613=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181305
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181904-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...MO/KS/AR/OK border area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181304Z - 181904Z

Summary...There is growing convective coverage near the
MO/KS/AR/OK border region. Hourly amounts to 2" with local
amounts to 4" are expected, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...WSR-88D radar and SPC mesoanalyses reveal a
noticeable decrease in CIN across the area, which is leading to
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage near the MO/KS/AR/OK
border region. A significant shortwave is approaching the region
from the TX Panhandle, which is clearly seen in GOES-19 water
vapor imagery. Precipitable water values are 1.42" at Springfield
MO, per the 12z sounding. MU CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg lies in the
region per SPC mesoanalyses. Effective bulk shear is 40 kts. The
flow at 850 hPa in convergent into the region ahead of a frontal
boundary.

The guidance shows increasing moisture into the region, due to
both convective coverage and a slight uptick in low-level inflow
into the region. Both the 850 hPa convergence and incoming front
are expected to remain foci for convective activity as we move
through the late morning into the early afternoon, which should
further increase in coverage and intensity with time. Convection
could lay down a mesoscale boundary across southern MO and
northwest AR with time. Both the 06z HREF and 00z REFS appear to
be too far to the east initially with areas receiving heavy
rainfall, but the RAP guidance shows boundary layer moisture
convergence extending eastward across portions of southern MO, so
the expectation is for a convective band to attempt to form with
embedded mesocyclones, with each meoscyclone both capable of heavy
rainfall on its own and holding up any convective band forward
propagation temporarily. This should lead to hourly rain amounts
to 2" with local totals to 4" which would be most problematic in
urban areas and Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered occurrences
of flash flooding is expected. Recent dryness should keep other
areas from seeing significant impacts, so long as the convective
development isn't more efficient than forecast.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!40hfYk-1H3mqxauxt8LFL7ErVg-dzpIVbsmuIKyRedH_g40xaen4MIOLF1Nof91U35gm= jI6Yxkb353ch7ObsDOa3sIg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38589292 37719078 36169372 35669512 36309577=20
37949468=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181710
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181710Z - 182300Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged training of moderate rainfall with occasional
heavy bursts up to 1.5"/hr and localized totals of 2-3" and
perhaps an isolated 3.5"+. Rates and totals are on the edge of
FFG exceedance in drought/hard ground conditions for a possible
incident or two of low-end flash flooding conditions, manly near
urban or prone locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um EIR loops depict a steadily
cooling and consolidating scattered line of convection across the
Eastern Ozark Plateau toward S IL. The stronger southern stream
shortwave over central OK continues to progress and amply along
the southeast portion of the larger scale trough while strong
upper-level jet streak is finally rounding the base and expanding
toward 110kts across KS into north-central MO in the next hour or
so. The combination of mid-level features and weak outflow from
convection is starting to combine the confluence/ascent axis
downstream of the orthogonal strong convergence along and
downstream of the southern stream shortwave over southern MO. The
confluence axis is also aligning with the deeper moisture (up to
1.6" attm) and elevated instability axis (up to 1500 J/kg),
resulting in the uptick in convective vigor across south-central
MO into SW IL. The overall coverage of cells remains scattered
though some embedded cores have be observed producing .25-.5"
totals in 15-30 minutes with hourly totals nearing 1-1.25". As
low level flow and moisture flux continue to strengthen with
rapidly expanding divergence area aloft from the strong right
entrance region to the 110kt jet, occasional hourly totals up to
1.5" are not out of the possibility.

The key for flash flooding will be duration and soil conditions
along the training axis. As the shortwave further amplifies, the
deep steering flow appears to favor a slight northward shift,
which should counteract the southeastward propagation expected
from cold pool generation. This will allow the cells to remain
favorable for longer training of 1-3 hours, but the lack of
extreme instability and oblique convergence may continue to result
in scattered to widely scattered nature of the stronger cores,
limiting totals to 2-3", though an isolated spot of 3.5"+ is not
completely out of the realm of possibility, with best potential
upstream across south-central MO toward SE MO.

The good news is the core of the training cells appear to be
aligned ideally with the axis of the highest FFG values (2-3"/hr
and 3-4"/3hrs), though there are some urban and complex/hilly
terrain through the area that would be more prone. Additionally,
the area has been in prolonged drought with 0-40 cm soil moisture
ratios below 30%, mainly less than 15%. This is also suggestive
that soils are compacted and probably a bit hydrophobic, limiting
initial infiltration. As such, if first rainfall is the intense
burst of those stronger cores, greater runoff should be expected.
As such, an isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
low-end flash flooding remains possible though the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7njN2zcMasRNWG6xZRNgFfwZq6fEN-ToDcdjwyTX0eJXZ26_9ru8q-Qslh1yYr6mA4cF= TZmd9siu458_So0TeuvC45Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39418894 39418811 38998773 38388802 37688947=20
37229051 36939204 37589260 38239302 38809176=20
39219019=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-190800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into north-central MS and
western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190259Z - 190800Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain is expected to result in 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour and localized totals of 2 to 4 inches
through 08Z from the LA/MS border into western AL. These higher
rain rates may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery from 0230Z showed a NE to SW
axis of thunderstorms extending from western TN into northern and
western MS and far northeastern LA, co-located with an elongated
outflow boundary. A few linear clusters of thunderstorms were also
observed upstream, across southern AR into northwestern LA,
located ahead of the base of an upper trough tracking east through
OK and northern TX. The environment across the Lower Mississippi
Valley was characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs
between 1.7 and 2.1 inches per 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data and the
00Z sounding from JAN. Southerly to southwesterly 850 mb winds of
30-40 kt were present from LA into MS, allowing low level moisture
transport and lift atop rain-cooled air with mean storm motions
oriented from the southwest in MS but veering toward the west
across northwestern LA. Flow aloft was diffluent, out ahead of the
base of the larger scale upper trough located over the central U.S.

Given the available instability and source region emanating from
the south, continued forcing via synoptic scale and mesoscale
processes, some filling in of convection between the leading
outflow in MS and trailing activity in northern LA is expected
over the next couple of hours. The potential for training is high
from the MS River eastward, but the duration of training is
questionable. However, even a 30-60 minute window of SW to NE
training should be able to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with
potential for 2-4 inches if training is able to set up for a bit
longer duration. These rainfall values may result in flash
flooding.

Dry antecedent conditions should limit flash flood potential, but
these locally higher rain rates could focus an isolated threat
across urban locations or other locations of poor drainage. The
flash flood threat is expected to move east out of the area after
08Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6MfX7yQlfiyfp69R0kFRwFC3E8EHDjXyDpEXrvnWCgZOK-zFQ-gELrRZAMUrmhSEBGtP= 3elaqsqk3bTTxnZoW3dWFAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34128834 33358769 32428824 31579042 31779220=20
32609218 33249096 34018968=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-240700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Areas affected...Texas Big Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240200Z - 240700Z

SUMMARY...Short window of very intense slow moving cells before
forward propagation begins. Narrow axes of training/repeating are
possible across small area of naturally lower FF values. Widely
scattered flash flooding remains possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A well defined surface to boundary layer
convergence/frontal zone was noted extending east-northeast
generally along I-20 from a surface low near Ft. Stockton up to
about KRPH. Winds had an easterly component further strengthening
moisture flux convergence as southerly flow off the Western Gulf
has been in the mid to upper 50s for Tds with low to mid 60s
further eastward where larger synoptic continental polar air
remains locked the Middle Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys. The
higher theta-E air pooled along the old boundary showed a solid
axis of enhanced 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE. Polar jet exit has been
advancing out of the southern High Plains with favorable left exit
ascent in the vicinity of the convergence as well as the trailing
positive tilt mid-level trough axis remained over far NW Texas as
the wave lifts through central OK.=20

As a result, strong vertical ascent and scattered to numerous
updrafts were noted along the old frontal zone with broadening
cooling tops falling below -65C nearing -70C; denoting the initial
vigor to the updrafts. The strong moisture flux as resulted in
broadening up/downdraft cores and efficient rainfall and small
hail resulting in localized 1.5-2"/hr rates. A few spots have
already experienced these totals with an 1-2" more possible.=20=20
Slow forward motions were a result of the lingering northeasterly
flow and anchor to the old boundary; however, as the nocturnal low
level jet is starting to develop, the easterly component areas
have been over-run and broad/strengthening south to southeasterly
flow has taken over. This will allow for eventual eastward
propagation on the development of weak cold pools.

Orientation of the boundary is fairly parallel to the deepening
unidirectional steering flow out of the west-southwest. Initially
about 10-15kt, steering flow will increase to 20-30+kts over the
next few hours likely to reduce the potential for larger rainfall
totals and limit risk of flash flooding due to the initial burst
of up to 1-1.25" in 15-30 minutes overwhelming the drier grounds
with limited infiltration. As such, localized flash flooding
will shift toward widely scattered and more likely limited to
prone or urban/low infiltration ground conditions across the Big
Country through the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OAoGKhG_HXUQiOPtZoP-Enoe_t6I8d_QAakdbGjfEGQpe91kFJYrEZiJaGEIwS3bqyS= Oa-iQIQrhMkiCzuw2bESxmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34189748 33789695 33039732 32689782 32399844=20
32169959 31840075 31610177 32030223 32750153=20
33410038 33759932=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240609
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-241200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1204
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Adj South-central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240610Z - 241200Z

SUMMARY...Deepening low level confluence and WAA will provide
consistent ascent for slow forward propagating/back-building
updrafts with 1.5"/hr rates resulting in localized 2-3" totals and
possible widely scattered incidents of flash flooding through
morning.

DISCUSSION...CIRA surface to 700mb LPW layers depict south to
north plume of enhanced low level moisture across northwest to
north Texas. A well defined stationary front/theta-E gradient is
denoted along and just east of I-35 across much of central OK
before angling westward along the KS/OK border toward weak surface
wave in SW KS. GOES-E WV suite shows strong closed low continuing
to advance out of the Four Corners with broad southwesterly flow
across much of the Southern Plains; yet the frontal zone remains
anchored by equally strong downstream low level ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. As such, the deep layer moisture plume
which totals to 1.5 increasing to 1.75" of Total PWat is corralled
well and fluxed on 40kt 850mb flow.=20

CIRA LPW 700-500mb shows slug of enhanced moisture in the
southwesterly flow along the northern edge of the 300mb jet streak
axis associated with mid-level shortwave and left exit divergence
area across west-central OK into north-central OK. The strong
veering through this 850-700mb layer is moist and conditionally
unstable with MUCAPEs over 2000 J/kg. The strong WAA through the
layer is providing some weak isentropic upglide before providing
sufficient directional/speed convergence to tap the unstable air
for vertical ascent. As such, scattered clusters of thunderstorms
are breaking out across much of central to northeastern OK,
including far southern KS at different vertical layers (lower
further west). Downstream flow supports cell motions toward the
east, but with the stronger convergence and unstable air upstream,
backbuilding will result in slowing effective cell/cluster motions
and increasing localized rainfall totals. Rates of 1.5"/hr are
more likely, though very transient uptick toward 2"/hr remain
possible and isolated within the larger WAA flow regime. As such,
with slow eastward motion of the overall pattern due to the
stronger low level ridge to the east; scattered streaks of 2-3"+
totals are possible. 00z HREF empowered by the NAM-Nest and ARW
solutions suggest even a spot of 4" is not out of the realm of
possibility with 10-15% of 5"/6hr by 12z over east-central OK.=20

In general, FFG values are high (2"+/hr, 3-4"/3hrs) and rates are
not too extreme, that slow infiltration is more likely; however,
an isolated incident of flash flooding remains possible over the
next 4-6 hrs. With that stated, this is just the start of
prolonged moderate WAA ascent and repeating rounds likely to set
the stage for later flooding concerns into the late morning early
afternoon.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-wkIzyKaAfPmthRUgThy1ZMrXL2dT5YVSM-Cq53KusUN977G3VSfzydedzuu99eLoTqK= N6geyQpaNKPn4IBeDm2kAVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37709742 37649652 36819579 36029535 35239552=20
34709607 34459724 34929812 35479839 36199802=20
36659783 37159777=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240641
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...North Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240640Z - 241100Z

SUMMARY...Short QLCS segment propagating into deeper
moisture/instability axis. Low-end incident or two of flash
flooding possible given rates of 1.75"/hr and totals to 3".

DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS and GOES-E 10.3um have shown a recent
uptick in convective intensity with overshooting tops cooling near
-70C occasionally with mature weak QLCS from earlier thunderstorms
over the Big Country. The complex has history of localized 2"+
totals upstream but is moving into a more focused low-level
moisture flux/instability axis along and west of strong/reinforced
stationary front across eastern TX. Surface observations show
outflow is starting to reach southeasterly flow at the nose of
surface Tds in the 60s, that are sourced with even higher moisture
into the low 70s upstream by a few hours. A weak surface
inflection of the meso-low along the line is helping to locally
strengthen the influx of the higher moisture and slightly higher
unstable air with MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg in that stream west of
the front.=20=20

Aloft, GOES-E WV suite shows the cluster is at the hard cyclonic
turning toward the northeast providing solid diffluence in the
upper-level jet coincident and downstream of the cluster helping
to further evacuate outflow to maintain stronger updraft strength
for a few more hours. Total PWats of 1.5" and expected isallobaric
inflow should provide rates of 1.75", occasionally up to 2" and
with still some upstream potential for short-term training of an
hour or two, localized totals of 2-3" remain possible. Given the
strength of the rates and surface rooted cells in proximity to
urban locales of North Texas and incident of low-end flash
flooding remains possible for the next few hours before the cells
cross the frontal boundary and move into much drier (upper 40s Td)
and stable environment.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5W5JkTQaTOrTf8IvO-2JIkZjZVzWlEFk61Ub57gKCKbEgy-jU_WGViICRHoRqqr-kI_E= xfB7Tqysg6YJeBUAMr32ZdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33319721 33289635 32929591 32469584 31979628=20
31959723 32249820 32649845 33029825 33229785=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241545
FFGMPD
OKZ000-242100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241544Z - 242100Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across
portions of north-central to northeast OK will be capable of
cell-training over the next few hours. High rainfall rates
associated with this will drive a threat for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding, and especially for the more urbanized
locations.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E VIS/IR satellite imagery shows a
well-organized convective cloud canopy over areas of north-central
to northeast OK. Convective trends show the activity exhibiting
cooling cloud tops, with some tops to near -70C, and this is
suggestive of an environment of increasing deep layer ascent along
with favorable moisture and instability transport.

Mesoscale analyses show the convection elevated in nature
northeast of a stationary front draped across western OK down into
the Red River Valley. The nose of a south-southwest 30+ kt
low-level jet is overrunning this boundary at a largely orthogonal
angle and is favoring a corridor of relatively strong moisture
convergence within a favorably divergent flow regime aloft given
favorable left-exit region upper-jet dynamics riding across
northern OK. Coinciding the with the moisture transport and
forcing is the pooling of elevated instability with MUCAPE values
of 1000+ J/kg.

Positive 3-hour MUCAPE differentials across central OK juxtaposed
against negative 3-hour MUCAPE differentials over northeast OK
suggests a strengthening of the elevated instability gradient
which also suggests an axis of strengthening frontogenesis aloft.
This will favor stronger ascent via isentropic lift and enhanced frontogenetical forcing in the near-term with the convection and
support a further uptick in rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates may reach up to 1.5+ inches/hour given the
environment, and with an environment conducive to some
backbuilding and cell-training of the convection, some rainfall,
totals over going through mid-afternoon may reach 2 to 4+ inches.
Dry antecedent conditions overall will mitigate the runoff
potential in the near-term, but as some of these heavier rainfall
rates persist, or get into a more urbanized setting, there may be
a concern eventually for isolated to potentially scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_xhQKScTxndQPI2HafFNlIkNdaXy6-Xc6cRZjoyFnFNbgw7nCYQYLcImv2FYNJ2oE83k= boJUFy9RDf2188ssUgoUAgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36789745 36719576 36429480 35569461 35119574=20
35289738 35679858 36129884 36529849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241851
FFGMPD
TXZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Southwest to Northwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241850Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
may produce an isolated to scattered threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery continues to show the
development and expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Trans-Pecos region of southwest TX through
parts of the Edwards Plateau and into the TX Big Country.

The environment continues to destabilize out ahead of an upstream
cold front and associated deep layer trough crossing the southern
Rockies. MLCAPE values have risen to as much as 1500+ J/kg, and
with enhanced effective bulk shear of 40 to 50+ kts, convection is
quickly attaining a substantial level of organization with
multicell and supercell convective clusters noted.

Additional boundary layer destabilization will yield localized
areas of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg by late this afternoon, which
will include a much greater level of instability pooling up across
the TX Big Country. The environment is increasingly moist with PWs
reaching 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal, and this is
being driven by a moist southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts.
This moisture transport out ahead of the front coupled with the
instability and shear should help facilitate rainfall rates
increasing to as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour with the more
organized convective cells.

Some cell-merger activity is expected over the next few hours as
the overall convective footprint takes on a larger scale QLCS
evolution by this evening. Upscale growth of convection will be
strongly connected to the arrival of strong jet-aided divergence
aloft and the already favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
environments.

Expect some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals to possible
where any cell-merger and cell-training activity occurs going
through early this evening. This may drive some isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially in around the
more urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95nBizNJjDyo2Y3Pc-KiHFFrVIZzhMck0pHgbCuyqCFi7vo5CFNzCJFEwmlXN3ZsnG8J= 0x9lhqRVBimeNasSj3AHzlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34259948 34039855 33179816 32159877 31250020=20
30500214 30210368 30480421 31120423 31850307=20
32740187 33950035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Portions of the TX Panhandle...Northwest TX...Southwest and Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242112Z - 250300Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms may expand a
bit more in coverage going into the evening hours. A localized
threat of flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cooling convective tops across parts of the TX Big Country up into
far southwest OK. The convection is becoming increasingly aligned
with strengthening deep layer ascent associated with stronger
upper-level jet dynamics downstream of the approaching upstream
trough over the southern Rockies. This is coinciding with MLCAPE
values of near 1000 J/kg focused up in close proximity also with a
frontal zone draped across the region.

Some additional uptick in the coverage of convection is expected
going into the evening hours as larger scale forcing increases
further and interacts with the modest pool of moisture and
instability nosing up across the region. This will generally be
near and east of an area of surface low pressure over the TX
Panhandle, but more closely aligned with areas of strongest
low-level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near the front.

By later this evening, some of the uptick in the coverage of
convection is expected to involve central OK as the southerly
low-level jet here strengthens and yields stronger moisture
transport.

Expect rainfall rates in the near-term to be capable of reaching
well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour range, but with some
cell-training concerns in place, there may be some localized
swaths of additional rainfall totals reaching 2 to 4+ inches by
late this evening. This is consistent with a blend of the 18Z HREF
and 12Z REFS guidance.

This will drive a threat for mainly localized and urban flash
flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_--XblOWRWkEG_g9oOKe9cFAwm-lvcMKaDSoQhsau4EL6-WKzwW9aljUlEEZdxRLY2K= qb-W-gGasQ_nQuPfXA2rzEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37119822 36819707 36109666 34929704 33889811=20
33559921 33580013 34170070 34820090 35840067=20
36829965=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242326
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/TX Hill Country into Northern TX
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242325Z - 250525Z

SUMMARY...Well-organized clusters and bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will evolve going into the overnight hours.
Scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely, which is
expected to include some regional-scale urban flooding impacts,
some of which may be significant.

DISCUSSION...Early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive axis of well-organized cold-topped convection impacting
portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Big Country, with generally
cooling cloud top trends and the convection inclusive of multicell
and supercell modes.

The environment across much of the region is moderate to strongly
unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg pooled across
the region well ahead of an upstream cold front and deeper layer
trough ejecting out across the southern High Plains. This
instability which is being aided by a moist southerly low-level
jet of 30 to 40+ kts is working in tandem with a sheared and
dynamically forced vertical column to support strong/organized
convection capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour.

Over the next several hours, the convection will tend to take on
the character of a QLCS, but with embedded swaths of convection
where cell-training and supercells will be a notable concern. This
will include portions of the Edwards Plateau and TX Hill Country
going through the late-evening hours. However, numerous runs of
the HRRR guidance along with recent RRFS solutions support an area
of more focused and potentially higher-end rainfall impacts/flash
flooding concerns closer into the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan
area along with potentially adjacent areas of the Red River Valley
of the South. This is being supported by the latest RAP analysis
which does showing the pooling of higher theta-e air/moisture and
instability nosing up across north-central TX toward the Red River
Valley. This is also in close proximity to a stationary front
which in itself is expected to interact with the low-level jet for
an area of stronger low-level forcing/convergence.

On a regional level, the more organized swaths of convection are
expected to yield locally 2 to 4+ inches of rain which will mainly
be connected to short-term cell-training considerations. However,
some of the aforementioned guidance, especially across
north-central TX (DFW metroplex region and adjacent suburbia) may
see 5+ inch totals given trends toward a more unstable/strongly
forced regime setting up this evening.

Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely going into the
overnight hours and this will include notable urban flooding
concerns. Some of these impacts may be significant, and areas near
the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in particular should
closely monitor this situation over the next several hours.

Areas also in the more flashy/sensitive TX Hill Country area will
be at risk for elevated rainfall totals and flash flooding
concerns late this evening and overnight that may be locally
significant. This area could be the subject of a more targeted MPD consideration later tonight as conditions warrant.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7QAfLaznb4TeNmx_mk11HHddrWT-_R5iS99HSoCFi3qZu5PV4N4CBI6A0IRoBE2rixw2= GUMG1Mzvm-LF5QP_92WXyOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35019724 34799567 33509523 32359546 31159624=20
30269725 29509860 29180037 29370140 30180214=20
30850194 31690068 32709927 33769832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1211
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...East-Central to Southeast Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250720Z - 251300Z

SUMMARY...Forward speed to slow slightly and allow for 2"+/hr
rates locally. Widely scattered spots of 2-4" totals and
localized flash flooding remain possible, especially near Houston
Metroplex.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts older initial QLCS
across eastern TX has started to slow with fractured, but still
broad updrafts, particularly in the southern edges of the line
from Leon to Henderson county, as the main forcing from shortwave
DPVA continues to become more oblique as that wave exits across
the Red River Valley into SE OK. The upstream trailing shortwave
associated with the strong divergent pattern across the Heat of
Texas combined with strong meso-high/cold pool is propagating the
secondary squall line quickly eastward starting to align SSW to
NNE with the initial line. Solid southeasterly surface inflow,
veers with height to 850mb becoming increasingly confluent with
strong 30kts and 30-45 degrees of directional convergence.=20
Moisture is also much deeper though the Coastal Plain with Tds in
the low to mid 70s and overall PWats over 1.75".=20

As the main mid-level wave exits and core of the closed low slowly
drops southward, the downstream ridging is likely to increase and
forward speeds are to slow with steering flow shifting from SW
toward SSW. This will increase overall rainfall duration in
combination with the strength of moisture flux convergence.=20
Surface temperatures off the Gulf are also into the lower to mid
80s providing further buoyancy over the next few hours. Rates
will increase to 2"/hr and developing streamers off the Gulf,
localized maxima/transient mergers may further enhanced highly
localized tropical/deeper warm cloud processes to support focused
2.25-2.5"/hr totals. The line will still be forward propagating
and should limit some of the duration but still support scattered
incidents of 2-4" totals while an isolated 5" not completely out
of the realm of possibility given 00z HREF probability of 20-25%
across far SE TX through 15z; though 3" probability reach 70-90%
along and downstream of the Houston Metro providing some
confidence for localized possible flash flooding incidents through day-break.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8up3DJtTG51ajbcvYZByA5q3tpR4ley3ETFHi-w3FNGrkTh7yo9xAjXaOONmrwmu_WTB= Jl3OeIXS3oi0-5XiZf2F1Ps$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32269484 31969414 31429380 30819371 29789401=20
29199489 28609569 28629623 29219645 29909640=20
30369634 31479614 31899590 32159556=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251923Z - 260115Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be redeveloping and
gradually expanding in coverage going through the early evening
hours. Some cell-training concerns and locally high rainfall rates
coupled with recent moistening of soil conditions may foster
localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
in conjunction with surface data shows the boundary layer across
central TX gradually destabilizing as a cold front approaches from
the west. This is evidenced by an expanding CU/TCU field along
with a southwest/northeast oriented axis of showers and
thunderstorms that has developed from KBBD to just north of KMNZ.

Solar insolation combined with fairly steep mid-level lapse rates
have allowed MLCAPE values across the eastern portions of the TX
Hill Country to increase to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This
coupled with moderately strong effective bulk shear values (30 to
40 kts) and arrival of deeper layer ascent associated with jet
energy rounding the base of the southern Plains upper
trough/closed low should favor an uptick the coverage of
convection over the next few hours across central TX.

Areas a bit farther off to the east involving eastern TX are much
more stable in the wake of the early morning QLCS, and the latest
RAP analysis shows this region struggling to destabilize, so much
of the heavy rainfall threat in the near-term should be across
portions of the TX Hill Country up into the TX Triangle region.
This is where better low-level convergence ahead of the front and
interaction with unstable southwest flow will be noted.

Some cell-training concerns are going to be possible with the
convection given the linear nature of the activity along with
alignment close to the deeper layer steering flow. Rainfall rates
will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger
storms, with some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals possible
where the better cell-training occurs through early this evening.
The latest HRRR and RRFS guidance supports this, but the RRFS is
notably wetter and probably too wet given the modest PW
environment (~1.25 inches) and moisture transport regime.

Given the rainfall potential and locally moistened soil conditions
from last night's rainfall, there may be a localized threat for
some flash flooding heading through early this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5abBr_tUvcIQ38IHIAQqo8ktwJT7BlAcXgbR9Vm24rUZLEPHbahC6jGXaDGXn3OYNIZ8= BGMPcugFs-TiQJJXnGwgWGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32749635 32559589 32159571 31509585 30719681=20
30239838 30279977 30580014 30910011 31219959=20
31499898 31799842 32629718=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260211
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1011 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of Western & Central LA...Far
Southwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260210Z - 260800Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective lines to merge/converge with some
internal cell training/repeating expected. Uptick in moisture
flux will increase rainfall efficiency and support up to 2"/hr
rates. SW to NE swath of 2-4" totals may result in scattered
incidents of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad, symmetric and well
defined closed low dominating the Southern Plains encroaching on
the Lower Mississippi River Valley as the lead height-falls has
pressed through into MS toward W AL. The secondary/wrap around
energy and core of the upper-low is currently tracking along the
Red River with another internal jet streak and associated
upper-level divergence and DPVA for broad scale ascent across the
southeast quadrant of the circulation across E TX into LA. EIR
loop shows scattered overshooting tops along a west to east axis
of convergence along a pre-frontal trough dropping southeast
becoming more orientated to the deeper layer southwesterly
steering flow. However, the favorable ascent pattern has positive
influence across much of SE TX into LA, where low level cu-field
noted in 3.9um and regional RADAR mosaic are showing developing
narrow cored thunderstorms broadly from the central TX coast into
central LA ahead of the main line.

RAP/CIRA LPW analysis denotes core of higher theta-E air and
moisture values of .75-1" in the surface to 850mb layer across the
TX Coastal Plain into SW LA and up the MS River to near the AR
border. Highest buoyancy air also tends to reside closer to the
coastal region with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along and downstream of
the main line. As such, additional downstream cells are
expanding/developing in the next few hours with broad LLJ over the
Western Gulf becoming increasingly confluent increasing overall
convergence for expanding convective development. In addition,
this flux of 1.5-1.8" total PWats (mainly below 700mb) and LLJ
ramping up to 25-30kts over the next few hours will support
broadening updrafts capable of 2"/hr. As the DPVA further drops
southeast, orientation of broader SW to NE wedge of convective
complex will support embedded northeast motions for short-term training/repeating as the overall propagation is steadily
east-southeast. Prolonged moderate rainfall with these embedded
strongest bursts should allow for a broader area of 2"+ rainfall
with localized totals of 4"+ through 09z with best probabilities
located from SW to central LA pushing toward SW MS toward the end
of the period.=20

Of note toward the end of the valid time (, the surface warm front
along the MS is likely to be steepened through depth as the
strength of the easterly flow across the Tennessee Valley and
central AL undercuts and increases FGEN/ascent plane for
isentropic development.

Hydrologically, the area has been relatively dry though this
morning's initial convective line has moistened up some of the
upper soil columns for greater infiltration and naturally higher
FFG due to sandier profiles ( 2-3"/hr and 3-4.5"/3hrs), should
help to limit flooding potential. However, scattered to widely
scattered flash flooding will remain possible, especially in/near
prone urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5d1ibIQqoy2aXcOcc4_EYbSlKQJXhbqWQzWMesf7IxipAbB29iD-dZzFPhGt3NaKn0XU= cjT68MhRi8kzHLaER4cLPCk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32779209 32569099 31869082 30959140 30189242=20
29479407 29069486 28529598 28809650 29909716=20
30869599 31439529 32319423 32699347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260645
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-261230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260645Z - 261230Z

SUMMARY...Large MCS cluster will continue to produce 1.5-2"/hr
rates and streaks of 2-3.5" totals as it progresses across the
Lower MS River Valley through early morning. Scattered incidents
of localized flash flooding remain possible, especially near
urban/poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows slightly unbalanced closed low
has core of vorticity swinging with weak negative tilt from the
center in SE OK across central LA. Further aloft, nearly ideal
diffluent dual jet structure is providing about 30-45 degrees of
split and strong divergence aloft to evacuate and maintain broad
meso-scale ascent along and downstream of the shortwave trof.=20
Regional RADAR mosaic denotes a weak MCV-like wave riding
northeastward along the western side of the progressive
squall-line located just west of ESF. Low to mid-level flow
continues to respond with strong LLJ of 20-30kts extending from
the upper TX coast through the Mouth of the MS all confluent
downstream of this wave. Total PWats are nearing 2" given the
overall piling of low to mid-level moisture and wedge of WAA
remains fairly unstable with uncapped MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg
up to the AR/MS/LA border and as high as 1500 J/kg south of Baton
Rouge. As such, the strong moisture flux will maintain 1.75"/hr
rates with occasional uptick toward 2"/hr where storm scale
convergence is maximized.=20

While the upper-low still is advancing at a solid eastward
progression, the deep layer steering flow is starting to shift
from SW-NE toward a more S to NNE angle. Downstream
training/repeating will continue to allow for 2-3.5" streaks of
rainfall in a 2-3 hour period generally between I-20 and I-10
mainly as the instability reduces further north with time. More
scattered but stronger cells may be capable of slightly higher
rates, but duration is likely to be a bit more limited in/along
the I-10 corridor.=20=20

Hydrologically, FFG is 2-3"/hr (lower north of I-20) and
3-4"/3hrs, so overall totals will be near those values suggesting
scattered localized flash flooding remains possible with highest
risk of flash flooding in urban locales due to impermeable
surfaces and higher runoff. So all considered, flash flooding is
considered possible through 12z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67Am17KXkXDdRIACj7ZxMsXJ217SGU2qQRBq71MGCB2Dw2JxLjp0OCR6bYw0QKEfeUOt= vQIX0lmai_G2QxP21xKO610$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33469015 33158953 32578923 31398933 29848973=20
28939002 29019097 29619317 30579278 31869218=20
33109162 33419113=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261258
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261256Z - 261856Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding will remain
possible through the morning and into the early afternoon across
portions of the central Gulf Coast as convection slowly moves
eastward.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows areas of heavy rainfall
continuing to move eastward across portions of southeast LA and
southern MS this morning. IR imagery indicates colder cloud tops
are being maintained, and GLM shows plenty of lightning activity.
This convection is being supported by strong synoptic ascent ahead
of a closed mid level low and within a strongly divergent region
of the upper level flow. Meanwhile, 30 to 40 kts of low level
south to south southeasterly flow is producing strong moisture
transport and convergence. The better instability is confined
closer to the coast, suggesting the highest rainfall rates should
be across southeast LA into far southern MS. However some of the
stronger low level convergence is farther north, which should help
compensate for the lower instability and drive some localized
higher rainfall rates here as well. The convection will continue
to progress off to the east, limiting the duration of highest
rates. However, some brief backbuilding/training of cells into the
strong low level inflow will continue to support some areas of
more persistent rainfall rates. Hourly rainfall should continue to
locally get into the 2-3" range.

Recent HRRR runs continue to indicate 1-3" of rain within the MPD
area, with localized totals over 3". Recent RRFS runs are a bit
higher, showing localized max values over 5" through 19z. Overall
think a compromise of the two is most likely, with localized
rainfall amounts getting into the 3-5" range through 19z where
some brief backbuilding is able to locally extend the duration of
higher rates. Will also note that the HRRR is probably a bit slow
with the eastward progression of the convection, with the RRFS
probably better with the idea of heavier rainfall totals getting
into coastal AL by later this morning.

FFG is quite high across this area, generally 3" in one hour and
4" in 3 hours. It seems unlikely this will get exceeded on a
widespread basis, however where some brief training can occur we
should be able to continue to locally exceed these amounts. Thus
an isolated to scattered flash flood risk is likely to continue,
with an emphasis on urban areas where runoff is enhanced.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-CVi1ln5byFJMQcIWGGY0CoTOnqyzzqDQAMZWm7T1h3sAbJKTef1dloAvCWRAzSZ0Bk= No94LJRzuGDbyWJknbDfBzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31838994 31688862 31408795 30418726 29388857=20
28908922 28918978 29279039 30039039 30549035=20
30829040 31299048=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262103
FFGMPD
FLZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast region into central portions of FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262100Z - 270300Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 3"+/hr with slow moving
thunderstorms to result in short-term isolated totals of 5"+ with
localized flash flooding likely.

Discussion...Mid-level dry air has eroded sufficiently to allow
for deep convection to take root across portions of the central FL
Peninsula, becoming most robust along the eastern Space Coast
region where low-level convergence has become maximized along the
coast (with weaker, generally more progressive convection
extending well to the west along a weak surface front/thetaE
gradient). The mesoscale environment is characterized by PWs of
1.5-1.8" (already near the 90th percentile, and may increase to
beyond 2.0" locally with continued upscale growth of convection),
plentiful instability (SB CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kts (also near the 90th percentile, per XMR
sounding climatology).

Hi-res models trended quite wetter (and in surprisingly strong
agreement) with the 12z cycle, as both the HREF and REFS indicate
high odds of localized 5" exceedance through 03z (near 60% and 50% respectively, per 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities).
This is near the corresponding 6-hr FFG threshold, though much of
these totals could occur in a 3-hr period or less (as evidenced by
estimated hourly rainfall near 3" from the first evident supercell
near the Space Coast Regional Airport, which is nearly stationary
in accordance with the bunkers right-mover vectors indicating
motions of 5 kts or less). Given this strong hi-res guidance
signal and recent observational trends, localized instances of
flash flooding are likely (and may be locally significant in
relatively low lying urbanized terrain with poor drainage).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_vIIAFNLjgdXNTMhbd1y_rT6ZamAyYMGqcKgE9sFIHRTR7ZttcM_Y6etTl8pQxx2NO3f= trw-SU5qKo1h0zpR--pjDLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29488163 29258104 28618048 28218076 28288150=20
28598201 28998214=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262351
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and local totals to 7" exists/continues, which would be
problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 7" have occurred in east-central FL, which appear
to be reasonable upper bounds on future potential. These amounts
would be problematic along the East Coast of the state, which led
to a recent broadening of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas in
the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Flash flooding is
expected to be at least widely scattered in coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Nf-iyyNrwNGvgA3tnQptqT3PXkZXnS11TOp9xGoWMmY5pSKrz8khyqHg78FYEGCK5YC= mMtm-1Qnxn4U-2VdoBsZhRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262356
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Corrected for amounts thus far in east-central FL

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and additional local totals to 6" exists/continues, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 10" have occurred in east-central FL. Believe
hourly amounts to 3" and additional local amounts to 7" are
possible. These amounts would be problematic along the East Coast
of the state, which led to a recent broadening of the Marginal and
Slight Risk areas in the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook.=20
Flash flooding is expected to be at least widely scattered in
coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RRqNhRs5CLZzRZbOt3JS2A4damiKVzPADWhiDqYblGS-nEtnjHzg-jt43GBGOirN6bh= 55kGKxHuFiLsnqYkpmuYgQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270214
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270215Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient supercells in proximity to the
front and ample deep layer moisture flux will support rates of
2-2.5"/hr. Localized totals of 3-5" are possible in proximity to
urban locations along I-10. Localized rapid inundation flooding
is becoming increasingly possible.

DISCUSSION...KMOB RADAR along with GOES-E 3.9/10.3um animation
shows organizing thunderstorms across Mobile Bay. GOES-E WV shows
the core of the upper-level jet is squarely atop of the developing
cells but is shifting eastward bringing a more favorable larger
scale ascent pattern over S AL into W FL over the next few hours.=20
Combine this with strong shortwave digging across Arkansas,
sliding a bit negative tilt across MS further adding larger scale
ascent, while also strengthening low level confluent flow across
the Northern Central Gulf. A persistent stationary front hugs the
coastal zone from Mobile Bay toward Gulf county in the W FL
Panhandle, south of which as solid theta-E, but also strong
easterly flow is anchoring/steepening the front across the area
too, increasing vertical isentropic ascent from south to
southwesterly flow at and above the boundary layer with solid
strong moisture convergence.=20

The upper-level wave is helping to finally propagate the cold
front across S MS and WAA is lifting the front off the Gulf. So
cells and higher instability/theta-E air should lift into far S AL
a bit more with 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. While deep layer
moisture has been advected eastward, the surface to lower boundary
layer remains very saturated with Tds in the low to mid 70s and
total PWats at or above 1.75", mainly in the sfc to 850 layer with
.75 to .9" per CIRA LPW. GOES-E 3.9um shows a SW to NE
confluence axis from the Boothville, LA toward the MS/AL coast.
This may be a solid trending axis for additional upstream
development. Also, given the proximity to the front, the low
level shear is fairly strong with over 35-40 kts of bulk shear,
but also nearly 200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity supportive of
super-cell structures. The combination of 45-60 degrees of
southerly flow from SE to WSW through 800mb at 30kts+ will allow
for high concentrated moisture flux convergence of these higher
values and support rates of 2-2.5"/hr.

Forward propagation near the warm front will be very slow as well,
with Bunker's right mover propagation vectors about 5 kts to the
east, further increasing duration and potential for localized 3-5"
totals. Proximity to urban locations from Mobile Bay eastward
along I-10 would support possible rapid inundation flooding
potential as the cells continue to strengthen/broaden increasing
rainfall coverage as well.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bs5j5LJ0VqyhPFjGItx8AsYUVPG0vqpFBbeZ5_J27ViAmLa4NKJ2UfKLBgp6MVerhZs= HhRw-EPzAdQCBTaK_Of15OE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31288732 31198679 30868651 30528656 30318683=20
30208728 30228820 30998826 31248785=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270712
FFGMPD
FLZ000-271300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Areas affected...Westerm Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270715Z - 271300Z

SUMMARY... Rates of 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" to continue risk of=20
rapid inundation flooding along the urban locales of the immediate
coast of western FL Panhandle=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9 SWIR and RADAR from EVX shows a pair of
narrow N-S oriented bands within the warm sector over the near
shore waters of the northern Gulf. Confluent flow has narrowed in
direction but speed remains about 20-30kts through 700mb.=20
Sufficient veering through depth shows WAA profile still
supporting 50 kts of effective bulk shear and about 200 m2/s2 of
helicity to maintain rotating updrafts. These rotating updrafts
continue to slightly enhanced the localized flow providing further
escalation of moisture flux convergence in the lowest 10-15Kft of
storm. Given bulk of 1.75-2" total Pwats (~1-1.25" per CIRA LPW)
will maintain solid rainfall efficiency with rates of 2"/hr likely
to continue with these back to back lines of updrafts. Deep layer
steering and Bunkers right mover propagation vectors suggest a
slight increase in speed to 10-15kts but also a slight right
deflection along the surface front and coastline, probably with
some frictional speed convergence due to land as well.

Aloft, the 80kt WSW to ENE speed max remains slightly upstream and
to the southwest, leaving the developing cells within continued
favorable divergence aloft in the left exit ascent region. The
shear is strong, but mainly above 500mb and is not generally
disrupting the depth of the rainfall generation region below
700mb. Slow eastward propagation of the larger scale
divergence/oblique height-falls across N MS/AL, duration of heavy
rainfall could be 1-2+ hours given back to back updrafts. As a
result a streak of 2-4" totals is plausible; however, greatest
totals may start to fall just offshore or directly along the
beaches. So while the area is sandy and has high FFG values, the
area still remains fairly urban and more prone to rapid inundation
flooding. As such, this style of flooding remains possible
through the early morning hours along the western FL Panhandle.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QqtMZV6dZlGOYQYuxmY2iKGSO0x53XygaABfgT6ZNCOMXwY3Ow0xU7zeNESQLbnDmf-= M77jWytZ_qNZgUuGxNeCG3U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30808683 30728600 30428520 30098505 29838513=20
29668540 30128590 30318660 30348719 30638722=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301933
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-310125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Areas affected...northern NJ into southern NY/Long Island and CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301931Z - 310125Z

Summary...Heavy rain across the Tri-State Area through this
evening may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. Localized
rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall near 1
inch in 15-30 minutes can be expected.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed a low-topped squall-line,
oriented from south to north, edging east from 40 miles east of
ACY through NYC. This line was being aided by strong low level
convergence with 45-50 kt from the SSE/SE in the 925-850 mb layer,
located north of the triple point of an occluded cyclone over the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. The line of showers has been
accompanied by 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes across
northern NJ into the Five Boroughs.

Moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England was
already anomalous as sampled by area 12Z RAOBs, with PWAT values
of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an
increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and
below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The
continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow
for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall
rate potential into the early evening hours.

While the line of showers has been progressive, there is some
concern for very brief slowing/stalling given the LEWP-like
appearance off the NJ coast, which could result in a quick 1-2
inches as this line continues to advance east through the
remainder of the afternoon. As a triple point low becomes better
organized south of Long Island this evening, low level flow will
maintain a southeasterly orientation, with possible backing.
Therefore, some orographic component to lift will be added into
the equation for the higher terrain north and west of I-95,
combining with increasing right-entrance jet ascent associated
with a forecast 130 kt jet streak on the east side of the parent
upper low to the west.

Farther south and west, instability is expected to remain weak
(briefly peaking in the 500-1000 J/kg range) but perhaps
sufficient to support a few additional heavy showers from eastern
PA and southern NJ, rotating northward into the Tri-State region.

Additional rainfall may result in isolated areas of rapid
inundation of water. Given below average rainfall over the past
few weeks and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the
region, any flooding that occurs is likely to remain constrained
to urban or other areas with poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9FIRi1NKBOaCg4MfFWriOWtP0K6LX9dCRMYV3e6rRPxWaiMPuzVhGNzgIyu1jio3gLQk= znq132MoWRgl8CwwSNIVZGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42367414 42157352 42087251 41907210 41397212=20
40707286 40387404 40737491 41357535 42037519=20
42327478=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130959
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-132158-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Areas affected...much of central and northern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130958Z - 132158Z

Summary...Heavier downpours should result in instances of urban
flooding around San Francisco and vicinity during and after
morning commute. Heavier rainfall will also spread into more of
northern and central California from 13Z/6a PT through the
evening. Flash flooding is expected especially near burn scars,
urban areas, and other terrain-favored spots.

Discussion...As of 0955Z, a band of convection was beginning to
organize along a front extending from near 80 miles southwest of
Eureka to 180 miles southwest of Monterrey. Individual convection
along this band was streaming northward at a decent clip.=20
However, the band was only moving slowly eastward and already
favoring areas of repeating over open waters. 500 J/kg MUCAPE and
areas of 1.3+ PW values were supporting the convective band, and
MRMS data was already estimating 0.5-0.7 inch hourly rain rates
over land just southwest of Eureka.

The convective band and associated mid-level system are expected
to make only slow eastward progress toward more land areas of
California today. As the systems approach, low-level wind fields
will strengthen, colliding with terrain and locally enhancing rain
rates in many areas. Rates could reach 1 inch/hr on a localized
basis. These rates will overspread portions of the San Francisco
Metro beginning in the 12Z/5a PT hour and persist through the
afternoon, impacting morning rush with wet roads and areas of
excessive runoff. Portions of north-central through east-central
California will also experience terrain-enhanced heavy rainfall,
with some of the heavier rates (exceeding 0.75 inch/hr) falling on
sensitive ground conditions and burn scars. Flash flooding is
expected on at least an isolated basis. These areas could include
terrain near/north of Redding (beginning around 13Z/6a PT) and
upslope areas of the Sierra (near/east of Chico) beginning around
14Z/7a PT. Heavy rainfall could last for 8-12 hours in many of
the aforementioned areas, with totals of 3-5 inches likely through
00Z Fri Nov 14.

Again, at least a few instances of flash flooding are expected
given the scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5VKp-a7ebjiWmrdoxeWU409Xa9908ABb97wCJOe4OanaamOWmB6toVZM_1LbzpdVv3ry= Zvl45SPmtpirwxkshqXUjlM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42252315 42102191 41712116 41262098 40792092=20
40142070 38461980 37801954 36581993 35282051=20
35472124 37712319 40152469 41802483 42162420=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132136
FFGMPD
CAZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Areas affected...western Transverse Ranges into central CA and
northern Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132133Z - 140900Z

Summary...Flash Flood potential will extend into the evening and
overnight hours from portions of the northern Sierra Nevada into
much of central CA and the western Transverse Ranges. Peak hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to near 1.0 inches is expected along with peak 12
hour rainfall values of 2 to 4 inches through 09Z.

Discussion...21Z radar imagery and GOES West infrared satellite
imagery showed a band of moderate to heavy rain extending from
Monterey Bay and the northern Santa Lucia Range into the eastern
Pacific, out ahead of a Pacific cold front. The cold front has
been steadily advancing east since this morning and was preceded
by an atmospheric river containing max PW values of 1.3 to 1.5
inches along the coast and just offshore. Within this plume were S
to SSW 850-700 mb winds of 40 to 50+ kt, supporting earlier hourly
rainfall of 0.7 to near 1 inch across the Santa Cruz Mountains. A
number of reports of flooding and debris flows have been observed
since earlier this morning, in and around the San Francisco Bay
region down to Monterey Bay.

As a closed low centered near 41N 128W and southward extending
trough/low, as seen on water vapor imagery, continues to advance
closer to the coast, some weakening of the mid-level low is
expected as the system continues to mature and evolve. The cold
front will maintain a slow but steady movement toward the east but
a ~10 kt weakening of the 850-700 mb winds is expected as the
moisture axis advances downstream ahead of the cold front. This
weakening will correspond to a lowering of IVT values over land,
maxing out in the 600-800 kg/m/s range through 09Z Friday.

Occasional peak hourly rainfall of 0.5 to ~1 inch is expected to
be focused within locations where low level winds will focus into
S to SW facing terrain. The most likely locations for these higher
rates will be within the Coastal Ranges and Sierra Nevada but any slowing/stalling of a band of weak convection across the San
Joaquin Valley will also have the potential to produce these
higher rates given the moisture already present and weak MLCAPE up
to 500 J/kg forecast by the RAP.

Most instances of flooding/flash flooding are expected to be
minor, but will be most probable across urban and other flood
prone locations. However, localized occurrences of more impactful
flash flooding will be possible where overlap of heavy rain occurs
with any sensitive burn scars and terrain with potential for
debris flows.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6vhVfx5PrvXg1YFxrXbaLnPzE8TiC_lEuN1IOc2Kw_1rXYSFvDpdUCX5jP9z4cFbAig2= v04FN10JYa31QCEWqszhT5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40682176 40442144 39982074 39642050 39382033=20
39082023 38842014 38692005 38551994 38481986=20
38361970 38241972 38131973 38081971 37921946=20
37821936 37701937 37601929 37511915 37431904=20
37151884 36991877 36861884 36661952 36832010=20
36462052 35822041 35232021 34941972 34421932=20
34271951 34302044 34462098 35252146 35842184=20
36472222 37032175 38842141 40302192=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140920
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141518-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140918Z - 141518Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across portions of
southern California for at least another 4-6 hours. Areas of 2-3
inch rainfall totals are expected that could cause excessive
runoff and debris flows.

Discussion...Flash flood potential will continue through at least
15Z/7a Pacific Time this morning. A fetch of strong onshore flow
continues just ahead of a cold front along the coast extending
from near PRB near VBG. Just ahead of this front, mesoanalyses
indicate a focused area of 35 knot 850mb flow oriented
perpendicular to the western Transverse Ranges (Santa Barbara and
Ventura Counties). This orientation, ~1.5 inch PW, and modest
instability was supporting repeating heavy rainfall at times
across the discussion area. The repeating nature of the rain was
resulting in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates in local areas from the
Santa Ynez mountains through the Sierra Madre mountains and
surrounding areas. Low spots were responding with runoff over
area roadways over the past few hours, and reports of flooding
have been received in the discussion area near Highway 101.

The ongoing scenario will continue for another 4-6 hours or so.=20
The mid-level system partially responsible for the ongoing heavy
rainfall hazard has stalled, and the attendant cold front will
also become stationary. Meanwhile, 35 knot 850mb flow will
continue to impinge on the Transverse Ranges and prompt several
hours of intermittent heavy rain. The very high PW values and
local burn scars yield concern that locally significant flash
flooding could occur. Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are also
possible in a few spots through 15Z.

At some point around/after 15Z, 850mb wind fields should slacken
some and result in a gradual lessening of heavy rainfall potential
especially after 15Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YSANlPNsKgyhhxUH_7CB_jGnyTop2DRWsmPl_jtGQwo0EXHDv54zvvlmZJGVIBF9zjD= uJIxqChoHOgAm-IC_6FrKYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35782038 35561882 34761781 34121776 33911846=20
34422009 34702073 35072071 35342098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140922
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141518-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140918Z - 141518Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across portions of
southern California for at least another 4-6 hours. Areas of 2-3
inch rainfall totals are expected that could cause excessive
runoff and debris flows.

Discussion...Flash flood potential will continue through at least
15Z/7a Pacific Time this morning. A fetch of strong onshore flow
continues just ahead of a cold front along the coast extending
from near PRB near VBG. Just ahead of this front, mesoanalyses
indicate a focused area of 35 knot 850mb flow oriented
perpendicular to the western Transverse Ranges (Santa Barbara and
Ventura Counties). This orientation, ~1.5 inch PW, and modest
instability was supporting repeating heavy rainfall at times
across the discussion area. The repeating nature of the rain was
resulting in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates in local areas from the
Santa Ynez mountains through the Sierra Madre mountains and
surrounding areas. Low spots were responding with runoff over
area roadways over the past few hours, and reports of flooding
have been received in the discussion area near Highway 101.

The ongoing scenario will continue for another 4-6 hours or so.=20
The mid-level system partially responsible for the ongoing heavy
rainfall hazard has stalled, and the attendant cold front will
also become stationary. Meanwhile, 35 knot 850mb flow will
continue to impinge on the Transverse Ranges and prompt several
hours of intermittent heavy rain. The very high PW values and
local burn scars yield concern that locally significant flash
flooding could occur. Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are also
possible in a few spots through 15Z.

At some point around/after 15Z, 850mb wind fields should slacken
some and result in a gradual lessening of heavy rainfall potential.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kVz9ErDHVyIU0guZRGqc4RFSQxsXmSIXWegJ3Ytu8QbMk0sfY-OKaCW6SphBZsXzoCo= 9UcW436tz7Mjxjo7OEZcotY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35782038 35561882 34761781 34121776 33911846=20
34422009 34702073 35072071 35342098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151010
FFGMPD
CAZ000-152209-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151009Z - 152209Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall will become more likely - especially
beginning around the 14Z/6a Pacific timeframe. Rain rates
reaching 1 inch/hr are possible with this activity. Flash flood
potential will increase - especially across burn scars and other
low-lying, urban, and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection was beginning to deepen and move northward
across open waters adjacent to the southern California coastline
this morning. This convection was materializing in response to a
deep cutoff low centered near 32N, 124.5W that was beginning a
slow migration eastward toward the discussion area. On the
eastern periphery of this low, a very moist airmass was in place,
with PW values ranging from 1 inch near coastal areas to 1.6 inch
just offshore. Weak instability and modest forcing for ascent
over land areas are limiting factors for heavier rainfall
potential in the short-term and toward 14Z or so.

Later this morning, a belt of stronger southerly flow at 850mb
will develop toward coastal areas extending from the LA Basin
southward along the San Diego County coastline. Some of this flow
will interact favorably with coastal ranges (particularly the
Transverse) to promote an increasing risk of heavier rainfall.=20
Quick moistening is also expected to accompany this flow over
those areas. Rain rates should come up in tandem with approaching
ascent and orographic lift, and areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
should occur on a more frequent basis. At least a few instances
of flash flooding/excessive runoff are expected. Furthermore,
these rain rates should occur over local burn scars, prompting
dangerous debris flows in some areas. Locally significant impacts
will become possible in this regime.

Heavy rain potential will persist through at least 2200Z/1p
Pacific Time today and beyond as the upstream mid-level wave makes
only slow/gradual progress toward land areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7NmB96X_gKbvDQtUDkadiStzOtx5MFz8wPRwxfJkWWbtUL3__jOs9ytla2zeqyDQiJR4= -PFtCV8FgDw9DOF9htvwyZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35351981 35191853 34841736 34211654 33441614=20
32791601 32561639 32561714 33101753 33641831=20
34191949 34552052 35082065=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151919
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Areas affected...Desert regions of CA into southern NV and far
western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151917Z - 160115Z

Summary...Periods of heavy rain should become likely across the
desert regions of eastern/southern CA into southern NV and far
western AZ through 01Z. Peak hourly rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0
inches (locally higher) is expected which may result in isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery across southern CA into southern
NV at 19Z showed an arcing band of heavy showers continuing to
move inland, from the Peninsular Ranges toward the far southern
San Joaquin Valley. Observed hourly rainfall within this axis has
been in the 0.5 to 0.9 inch range over the past 2-3 hours.
Additional showers were noted from just west of the lower CO River
into western Clark County in southern NV with MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall in excess of 1 inch in eastern Imperial County. These
showers were forced in response to lift ahead of a negatively
tilted shortwave trough located ~100 miles off of the southern CA
coast, swinging toward interior southern CA. In addition,
divergence and diffluence were increasing across southern CA
within the left-exit region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max
located just south of the shortwave trough axis. Moisture was
highly anomalous for mid-November with regional PW standardized
anomalies of 4 to 5+ throughout the area, with a source region
stemming from the tropical eastern Pacific as seen on OSPO ALPW
imagery.

As the closed low and negatively tilted shortwave trough continues
to advance east over the next 6 hours, low level moisture will
continue to advect into the deserts with a transient swath of 6.0
to 6.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates (coincident with the shortwave)
which should help to briefly boost instability, despite the lack
of surface heating beneath clouds/rain. Also of note were the
850-700 mb winds oriented from the southeast at 30-35 kt over
south-central CA, forcing an upslope component along the eastern
slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. With little change to the
low to mid-level wind fields anticipated over the next 3-6 hours,
steady upslope forced heavy rain is expected into the terrain.
Farther east, embedded higher rainfall rates are expected to
develop through the afternoon within the scattered
shower/stratiform rain regime. While CAPE values are generally
forecast to stay below 500 J/kg (outside of the lower CO Valley),
the anomalous moisture source should contribute to embedded higher
rainfall values with periods of brief training, allowing for
hourly rainfall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range (locally higher).
Peak total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected (locally higher
near terrain) through 01Z which may result in areas of flash
flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9thXAR0MeAzY90w6Y5yt960fJNwMeBjCZqbAGy3VOG4ggdTCBbyCvWQaMI4GnO868aiI= 9KlPp1Z91dR8bBP6ueFEqGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...LOX...PSR...REV...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38051725 37481583 36161447 35111412 33431409=20
32231432 32471532 32481594 33171615 33501626=20
33671637 33951653 34111664 34231678 34311702=20
34391729 34501763 34651808 34781841 34911860=20
35061867 35231863 35381859 35491856 35641849=20
35721842 35801837 35891833 35961828 36081823=20
36181815 36311810 36411813 36481817 36601822=20
36661826 36751829 36851834 36931837 37031839=20
37121843 37211847 37261852 37321860 37421865=20
37621866 37861848 38041808=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152035
FFGMPD
CAZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152033Z - 160230Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will continue for coastal CA into
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through 02Z. While the
main/widespread threat of flash flooding is expected to wane over
the next couple of hours, a lingering threat for more localized
but potentially significant flash flooding will remain.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery at 20Z showed a band of moderate
to heavy rain that extended from the southern San Joaquin Valley
into some of the Valley/Desert regions east of the Peninsular
Ranges. This axis of heavier rain has been following a plume of
highly anomalous moisture translating eastward as seen on OSPO
ALPW imagery, out ahead of a negatively tilted mid to upper level
shortwave trough axis and vorticity max just west of the CA/MX
border. Additional heavy rainfall appeared in the waters just east
of Santa Catalina and San Clemente Islands, tied to the eastern
lobe of the mid/upper level shortwave. Rainfall over the past 6
hours has peaked near 1 inch for coastal locations into the
Peninsular Ranges while 1 to 2+ inch values have been observed
within portions of the Transverse Ranges, with hourly rainfall
between 0.5 and ~1.0 inches.

While relatively drier air was moving into southern CA as of 20Z,
the moisture remains anomalous with PW values of ~1.0 to 1.3
inches and despite continued drying of the layer, sufficient
moisture will remain through the evening to support localized high
rainfall rate potential. As the closed upper low center continues
to slowly edge closer to the coast, 700-500 mb lapse rates will
increase into the 6.5 to 7.0 C/km range and support localized
MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg near the coast. Lift will also
be aided by left-exit region divergence/diffluence corresponding
to a 100 kt upper level jet max positioned south of the upper low
center. Hourly rainfall in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range is expected,
though localized spot training could exceed these values and/or
support 0.5 to 1 inch of rain in about 30 minutes. The combination
of continued forcing and increased ground sensitivity due to
today's rainfall will likely support continued areas of flash
flooding over the next few hours. This will especially be true
where additional areas of heavy rain overlap with urban areas and
burn scars where localized higher impacts could occur. Within
sensitive burn scar regions, high rain rates are likely to result
in mudslides and debris flows.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_j_67JJhFHvq_oLXeomayUqUVfoafWQU8SimSG6NwI_NxuB5p1MdyqdZT-jj6t1orl4x= bP4V2_PJ0kcdmAeJVjLQtOk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35541966 35531858 35111811 34381686 33961642=20
33361612 32881611 32461613 32451668 32421710=20
32521739 32741783 33201827 33431858 33891947=20
34462098 35302118=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171004
FFGMPD
CAZ000-171600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171001Z - 171600Z

Summary...A stout mid-level wave west of Eureka was prompting
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across a broad part of
northern and central California. These trends will continue for
the next few hours, and areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates are
possible. A few instances of flash flooding could occur in
sensitive areas and near burn scars.

Discussion...A vigorous mid-level wave was providing ascent for
several areas of convection 1) just west of Eureka over open
Pacific waters and 2) along an axis from Redding south-southwest
to near Monterrey. Over the past hour, more robust convective
activity (with lightning) developed near/south of San Francisco
and moved inland. Both of these regimes were responsible for
areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates. The Redding/Monterrey
convective band was being forced by a strong front moving
southeastward across the region. PW values of 1 inch along and
ahead of the front near the coast was aiding in the heavier rain
rates.

Over time, as the aforementioned front shifts southward across the
state, strong upslope flow will aid in continued moderate to heavy
rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding especially along
upwind areas of the Sierra. The front will also aid in occasional
bursts of heavier rainfall along coastal areas from Monterrey
southward toward the Transverse Ranges/Santa Barbara County
through 16Z/8a Pacific time. Sensitive areas/burn scars could
experience another round of debris flows and excessive runoff.

Another more conditional risk for heavier rainfall will occur near
the center of the mid/upper trough near Eureka. Slow-moving
convection was being supported by ascent from the trough and very
cold temps aloft (-20 to -24C @ 500 mb). A conditional risk of
heavier rainfall occurring over land areas between Eureka and
Santa Rosa exists. Flash flooding is also possible with this
activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!560lrQV056m3xGBG0stbT-bHIATx0Z9HQM1S20SgYEgnUXhKzyUrzp017a7UzT6gmk9-= EVim_853cWsvqz4dxWXL1b0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41372415 41372308 41312155 40062055 37211977=20
35161959 34441983 34832081 36762232 38532342=20
39742426 40652451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171014
FFGMPD
CAZ000-171600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171001Z - 171600Z

Summary...A stout mid-level wave west of Eureka was prompting
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across a broad part of
northern and central California. These trends will continue for
the next few hours, and areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates are
possible. A few instances of flash flooding could occur in
sensitive areas and near burn scars.

Discussion...A vigorous mid-level wave was providing ascent for
several areas of convection 1) just west of Eureka over open
Pacific waters and 2) along an axis from Redding south-southwest
to near Monterrey. Over the past hour, more robust convective
activity (with lightning) developed near/south of San Francisco
and moved inland. Both of these regimes were responsible for
areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates. The Redding/Monterrey
convective band was being forced by a strong front moving
southeastward across the region. PW values of 1 inch along and
ahead of the front near the coast was aiding in the heavier rain
rates.

Over time, as the aforementioned front shifts southward across the
state, strong upslope flow will aid in continued moderate to heavy
rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding especially along
upwind areas of the Sierra. The front will also aid in occasional
bursts of heavier rainfall along coastal areas from Monterrey
southward toward the Transverse Ranges/Santa Barbara County
through 16Z/8a Pacific time. Sensitive areas/burn scars could
experience another round of debris flows and excessive runoff.

Another more conditional risk for heavier rainfall will occur near
the center of the mid/upper trough near Eureka. Slow-moving
convection was being supported by ascent from the trough and very
cold temps aloft (-20 to -24C @ 500 mb). Heavier rainfall could
occur between Eureka and Santa Rosa. Flash flooding is also
possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8rzG_g6Z7dApF0i3lq4u5E6K6tP5BOaGy9fFex9v19JXKqseg8Owh9hveffNBlcDIn_G= wNucsI39g4QZODDfzDz9o8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41372415 41372308 41312155 40062055 37211977=20
35161959 34441983 34832081 36762232 38532342=20
39742426 40652451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172145
FFGMPD
CAZ000-180345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172145Z - 180345Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall conditions improving, but still an
isolated potential for .5"/hr rates with max totals in the
Transverse Ranges near 1.5" through evening. Saturated grounds and
urban locations have possibility for isolated flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W Visible and Regional RADAR mosaic denotes a
broader shield of mid-level strato-cu across the western portions
of the Transverse Ranges across E Santa Barbara county indicative
of a subtle southwesterly shortwave lifting northeastward through
in proximity to the cold front. This is in some response to the
larger scale digging closed low orienting more NW to SE providing
deeper layer divergence above 500mb and overall DPVA through the
California Bight into Southern California this afternoon into
evening. However, the lower level pressure gradient is
broadening through the Bight and winds have diminished throughout
the afternoon. Still, 20-25kts of southerly flow coincident with
the vertically stacked moisture plume still advects .75 to 1"
total PWats (IVT values of 250-300 kg/m/s) fairly orthogonal to
the Transverse Ranges of Ventura and Los Angeles counties and will
spill over to the San Bernardino Ranges through evening.=20
Localized totals of 1-1.5" are possible in the highest elevations
but overall rates and ascent will be diminishing with the
weakening wind field.=20

Off the terrain, the environmental conditions are very limited
for flooding, but recent saturated grounds per NASA SPoRT suggest,
above average run-off could be expected. With that stated, some
modest surface to boundary layer heating has developed this
afternoon providing some weak but sufficient instability; MLCAPEs
of 150-250 J/kg are present and with 10-12 kg/m/s deep layer
moisture convergence along the front, some vertical development
and enhanced rainfall rates are possible through the evening
likely topping out around .5"/hr perhaps inducing some isolated to
widely scattered incident(s) of urban flooding concerns through
03z.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9unAJHAWFEgaYz1VRg6fwIkbpTRW82pvEbKw7sViPYiDcu1XKujuA8lj8kRTgFAw-F2X= DADRCR0SzZl4uVJLQ4Km9H4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35061949 34961850 34191722 32761696 32611733=20
33011763 33531807 33761859 33831901 34401968=20
34741979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180354
FFGMPD
CAZ000-180753-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1053 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180353Z - 180753Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues for at least 2-4 more
hours.

Discussion...A warm conveyor continues to spread moderate to heavy
rainfall into portions of southern California near the Los Angeles
basin and adjacent areas of the Transverse Ranges. Recent
observations suggest that 0.5 inch/hr rain rates were falling over
or very near burn scars just north of Los Angeles, suggesting
continued potential for excessive runoff and debris flows.=20
Mesoanalyses indicate a continued fetch of southwesterly 850mb
flow into the region oriented parallel to the coastal ranges,
supporting continued orographic enhancement of rain rates at
times. PW values near an inch and weak surface-based instability
also continue to support the convective nature of the activity and
locally heavy rain rates.=20

Models suggest that these rates will continue to impact burn scar
areas over the next 2-4 hours (through 07Z or so) while
translating slowly eastward. Flash flooding will remain a
possibility, though this risk should become more isolated with
time as rain rates are expected to gradually weaken.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Lg5brlhc3l8TD-QR5rcay76pvzFWwwYGIJQpPeKzNXG0xFgdiYBDr3pyuoXkzT3fOGP= k9Y_FcFrxoaKrLCXc2oRlZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34971836 34901737 34381647 33161635 32611652=20
32711701 33401774 34051865=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181228
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-181826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of western AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181226Z - 181826Z

Summary...An area of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms should
continue across portions of western AZ over the next several
hours. Hourly rain amounts to 1.5" and local 3" totals are
possible, which would continue isolated to widely scattered flash
flood concerns.

Discussion...An upper level low is sliding southeast down the CA
coast past Lompoc. It has led to a broad area of divergence aloft
across the Southwest. Precipitable water values of 1"+ are
indicated in RAP forecasts, with some GPS values across Las Vegas
and Phoenix in the 0.8-0.9" range. When combined with 1000-500
hPa thickness values of 5550 meters, the atmosphere is saturated
which has led to efficient heavy rainfall across portions of
southwest AZ this morning, with radar indications of 1"+ in an
hour at times. MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists downstream from
the Gulf of CA northward across southwest AZ. Effective bulk
shear of 25 kts is helping to organize the convective elements.

A shortwave noted on water vapor imagery across southern CA could
cause some backing of the low level flow in the short term,
potentially shifting the heavy rain area somewhat westward with
time. RAP guidance fields indicate expansion of the instability
pool northeast with time, which could lead to some northeast
shift. When taken together, the heavy rain footprint could
broaden with time. Hourly rain amounts to 1.5" and local totals
to 3" are possible where cells backbuild and train. Burn scar
locations, arroyos/dry washes, box canyons, and urban areas should
be most sensitive to this rainfall. Isolated to widely scattered
flash flood concerns should continue into the day today.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OSVbJv1SfLB2tqivOYQ7yd1rXTyeoYa0kBIta9AhWA5J57n9H8MSQQSYN4wASMHjc2P= 4BFi9vPa5od_YLPyG_1EGIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35721347 35591200 34471161 32961249 32731312=20
32951388 33841422 35121412=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181904
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-190103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1232
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Areas affected...Western Arizona, Southeast California and
Southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181903Z - 190103Z

SUMMARY...Flash flood risk increasing this afternoon into the
evening across the Colorado River basin between southeast
California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Heavy rainfall
potential existing through sunset leading to potential night time
flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...Current radar/IR satellite composite indicates a
brief lull initiating over portions of southwest AZ and
southeastern CA. Meanwhile, a steady progression of a stronger
convective pulse over far northeast Baja will make headway to the
north as it migrates within the broad deep layer steering flow out
of the south-southwest. This is due to the proximity of the=20
persistent ULL presence off the southern CA coast with smaller
shortwave perturbations emanating around the southern and eastern
periphery of the upper-level circulation. Hi-res guidance,
especially the last several HRRR iterations have been manifesting
this very scenario of a brief lull, followed by the advection of
the next stronger mid-level perturbation exiting out of Baja and
shifting north along the adjacent Colorado River basin between
AZ/CA/NV. This will coincide within a field of relatively buoyant
air situated within the river basin, arcing back into southern NV
along the warm/cold conveyor belt transition along the northern
side of the surface low analyzed over the southern tip of NV.

SBCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg is analyzed across much of southwest
AZ with an extension of 500-1000 J/kg located along the northern
extent of the Colorado River basin between the three-state
intersection. This setup is poised to advect further north with a
greater SBCAPE alignment focused over the southern tip of NV down
through far-southeast CA and much of western AZ. The combination
of suitable vorticity advection and modest instability over an
area of +2 to +3 sigma PWATs will assist in a re-invigoration of
area convection with cells capable of 0.5-1.25"/hr at peak
intensity, enough to favor some scattered flash flood prospects
within the confines of northern Yuma, La Paz, Mojave counties in
AZ, southern Clark county in NV, and far-eastern San Bernardino
county in CA. Some training could occur with cells materializing
on a north-south alignment for areas east of the Colorado River
given the deep layer flow remaining fairly uni-directional. This
could exacerbate flash flood concerns locally, leading to the
threat running closer to the flash flooding likely prospect,
especially within those western AZ counties.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qZwoR-eYoOBPiD_vew7g_oNGgxGIH2VQ3sBHQQpMbB4o_gJuygnmXAcdPidULM-OuUA= grZKvmqIF-vCYVPBbaCFAgc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35831459 35801375 35291312 34391280 33221314=20
33161409 33711453 34251494 34881526 35531530=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200542
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200540Z - 201010Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible over portions of central TX including the Hill
Country through 10Z. Localized totals of 2 to 4+ inches may occur
over a relatively short period of time.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 0530Z showed widely
scattered coverage of thunderstorms over central TX with an
increasingly concerning cluster near/south of JCT with only small
net-movement over the past hour. The environment over central TX
contained anomalous precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.7 inches
and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (SPC mesoanalysis and area soundings from
00Z) with moisture contributions from the tropical eastern Pacific
in the mid/upper levels and Gulf of America in the lower levels.
0-6 km mean layer winds were a progressive 20-30 kt toward the
northeast but sufficient speed shear was present for organized
cells and slower storm motions right of the mean wind.

While larger scale forcing ahead of a strong mid to upper level
trough/closed low over the CA/AZ border was still well west of TX,
the low level response out ahead of this feature was SSE 925-850
mb winds of 20-30 kt with increasing low level moisture values
into central TX since Wednesday evening as seen on OSPO LPW
imagery in the surface-850 mb layer. Transient axes of low level
convergence and upslope flow into the Edwards Plateau are expected
to continue to support small clusters of thunderstorms with mean
movement off toward the northeast. However, there will likely be
areas of upstream convective redevelopment which will allow for
training and repeating cells at times. Peak hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected within SW to NE axes of
training with 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches, although idealized
training over a particular location has the potential for rainfall
totals over 4 inches in 3 hours. Current thinking is that the
coverage of flash flooding through 10Z will remain low enough to
keep the "flash flooding possible" wording on this message given
dry antecedent conditions, but concerns for rapid rises of water
will exist across portions of the sensitive Hill Country despite
the dry antecedent grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_LYpBNhMlhdGrOmNgOUQY3aTCioz2NPMkd1VVanuIvyaHF12_R4dS_2zri_aZ5-ZJWhe= ULn-yQhCMPB3_j4eFKk9eD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32119869 31429791 30329826 29749881 29269946=20
28930081 29550147 30710103 31759995=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into
south-central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200800Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR
through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3
hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is
expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations
with poor drainage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z
radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into
southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly
flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over
the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over
any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat
disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an
increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few
hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between
500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the
ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.
Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with
GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of
06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low
level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms
with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean
movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward
the northeast but upstream development and training will
potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall
totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining
location.

The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher
rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within
an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin
County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past
2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should
limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6D9fBgG0juDuoIIa30dzEkqdMbIIT5lBWjkA6bza_T8Tuc7n0CKIf3us7JMPxYLFw189= L9C8giu8UUC8lF9h_ZMtH68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464=20
32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201015Z - 201600Z

Summary...Another round of heavy rain with flash flood potential
appears to be organizing across western portions of the Edwards
Plateau. Areas of training are likely to produce hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches and 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
across portions of central TX. A few instances of flash flooding
will be likely through 16Z.

Discussion...Between 09-10Z, thunderstorm coverage has been
increasing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau, from
near SJT, south-southwest toward the Rio Grande. This recent
increase could be related to increasing ascent ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough over AZ and northwestern Mexico,
which was beginning to acquire a negative tilt, but was still
located a bit west of the region. In addition, 925-850 mb winds
remained in the 20-30 kt range from the S to SSE, continuing to
transport anomalous low level moisture northward from the western
Gulf into central TX where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated by
the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Orographic lift across the Edwards
Plateau and a recent increase of low level convergence are also
contributing factors to the recent expansion of thunderstorms.

Recent RAP guidance indicates an axis or axes of low level
convergence aligning from Val Verde County toward the vicinity of
San Angelo through 16Z, matching the orientation of the mean
steering flow from the SSW. This signal, when combined with weak
right-entrance region divergence tied to an upper level jet east
of the upper level trough, is expected to result in areas of
training with 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour, and 2 to 4 inches of
rain in 3 hours or less time (locally higher possible). In
addition, recent WoFS guidance has been increasing probabilities
for 2+ inches of rain from near Val Verde County, north to
northeastward to just southeast of San Angelo over the next few
hours, with the 09Z cycle displaying a 40-70 percent probability
of exceeding 2 inches through 15Z across this corridor. The
anomalously moist environment will support locally high rainfall
intensities which should overcome dry antecedent conditions,
supporting at least a localized flash flood concern over the next
3-6 hours, with locally considerable impacts possible across any urban/impervious surfaces.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ctK3IvwUmNeuhMpezkSQKaDUREe_ipyjQqaaIn2NaAU7AYk0d1dAsqSQkMepj0XxAgP= CN2QcatTu6iZMWjZ_M4i8LQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32389946 32119884 31699846 30639852 29619945=20
28910033 29010170 30760171 32090080=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201653
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...North TX into southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201650Z - 202230Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher) is
likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding (and may
be locally significant).

Discussion...Low-level convergence upstream (southwest) of the DFW
metro has gradually consolidated a SSE to NNW training segment of
convection across portions of North TX with hourly totals now
approaching 2"/hr (per MRMS estimates). This line of showers and
thunderstorms is occurring along a ThetaE gradient well to the
east of the primary front (near the Rolling Plains and Cap Rock
south of the TX Panhandle) with precipitable water values of
1.5-1.7" (near record values, and well above the FWD 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), ML CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, and substantial
deep layer shear of 45-55 kts. As southerly low-level moisture
transport has recently ramped up, expect a period of several
several more hours of off and on heavy rainfall (with an even more
impressive train of showers is ongoing farther southwest over the
TX Hill Country, likely to move into the region while still
possibly maintaining 2-3"/hr rainfall rates).

The bulk of the hi-res guidance suggests an addition 1.5-3.0" of
rainfall over the next 3-6 hours (per 12z HREF probability matched
mean QPF) with the potential for localized 3" exceedance (per
40-km HREF >3" probs of 20-40%). With a narrow swath of 2-4" of
rainfall already having fallen over the past 6-12 hours (per NSSL
estimates), Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and
even lower to the northwest of the metro area where the maximum
rainfall occured). Given these wet antecedent conditions and the
potential for additional significant heavy rainfall, scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely (and may locally be
significant, particularly across more sensitive urbanized terrain
and where streamflows are already elevated).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4irV483kYzdvk4QIYc2rRMeSYNgBQuyC8Mbjbl2gVhfVg5U5hcn2wKp_0KEqSN__j6v1= gifA8jUNzsMY1UilaXWyX64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779506 34749469 34609448 34149451 33739464=20
33489482 33219549 32879604 32429662 32159723=20
32019790 32539822 32949780 33239739 33529712=20
33869700 34159660 34509605 34679554=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201800Z - 210000Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher)
over portions of already saturated areas is likely to continue
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding (with
expectations for locally significant flash flooding developing).

Discussion...Sustained training convection has resulted in a
narrow swath of heavy rainfall (2-5" over the past 3-6 hours, per
MRMS estimates) through the morning hours. While numerous (but
very geographically focused) flash floods are ongoing in portions
of the TX Hill Country, concerns are growing for continued
worsening of impacts as persistent low-level moisture transport
and convergence have coincided with destabilization just upstream
of the hardest hit areas (to the southwest into portions of
South-Central TX near Del Rio). The mesoscale environment is
otherwise characterized by precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
(near daily records, as DRT sounding climatology indicates a 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), most-unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg, and
substantial deep layer shear of 55-65 kts. While a dry line is
slowly approaching the region from the west, this is likely only
increasing the low-level forcing over the next several hours with
the expectation that the feature will stall west of Del Rio.

Going forward, there is strong agreement among the hi-res CAMs for
an additional 1.5-3.0" of rainfall (with at least one run of the
HRRR indicating localized totals of up to 5", as well as HREF 3"
exceedance probabilities of 15-25%). Given the wet antecedent
conditions (and the already relatively sensitive terrain of
portions of the Hill Country), continued scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely (including some locally
significant instances of flash flooding, as FFGs of 1.5" are lower
are indicated across already hard hit areas).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8gm6zExzPuqInA_FHv9lwYjvY6HraxezaB7ugrj84BH-qx3gctoRT7BOcYLMUDXdCSzx= G3klA6fn0bwz91ueqDS-uDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32459847 32329806 31959765 31639764 31299797=20
30989823 30639859 30139902 29589955 29340009=20
29340072 29590130 30100103 30600069 31080033=20
31410010 31899969 32249924 32429888=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210612
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...coastal southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210611Z - 211210Z

Summary...Highly localized flash flooding will be possible from
slow moving showers/thunderstorms capable of producing hourly
rainfall up to ~1 inch. This threat will exist along portions of
southern CA near the coast through at least 12Z.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery at 06Z showed
a mid-level closed low centered over the central CA coast, slowly
moving south. Several smaller scale vorticity maxima were observed
within the cyclonic flow, with one of interest located over/near
Santa Cruz Island. Cooling cloud tops were noted east of the
vorticity center, northwest of a surface low within a mesoscale
deformation zone. The 1009 mb low was located about 30 miles west
of Santa Catalina at 06Z with an occluded/cold front extending
southward. A weak plume of low level moisture transport was
located ahead of the front, parallel to the southern CA coastline
where a few showers have recently picked up in intensity with
localized training along the Orange County coast.

Weak instability up to a couple hundred J/kg was located along the
southern CA coast from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties as
noted in recent ACARS/model soundings. As the mid-level low
continues to translate down the CA coast, the plume of low level
moisture ahead of the front will push inland along with the
initial round of stronger showers. Later in the night, some
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should increase instability up
to about 500 J/kg along the immediate coast and closer to 1000
J/kg offshore. The surface low is forecast to edge closer to the
Los Angeles/Orange County coasts through 12Z. With this movement,
another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms is expected
to track toward the coast from the offshore waters, with potential
for highly localized hourly (or sub-hourly) rainfall between 0.5
and about 1 inch, due to slow movement.

These spotty higher rainfall rates could result in flash flooding
of urban areas or other sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hy1OjoPIczj9JA_LYobi4X_8NO48jWfR8lBVWDPe-RK1XsCwgWROEbmiMan9UUefKhF= UopZquPsB1jFEV3OzPJESk4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34581936 34531776 33821649 32841623 32541631=20
32531634 32251753 32241756 32731790 33131881=20
33501962 34001978=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211245
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211245Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Risk of slow moving, narrow updrafts capable of
.75"-1"/hr rates likely to continue to a few more hours. Isolated
1-2" totals in/near urban locations in SoCal suggest localized
flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined closed low is parked directly over
southern California with an upstream highly anomalous
shortwave/vorticity center descending southward along the western
periphery of the low. This and favorable cyclonically curved
geography of the coast and mountain ranges will help to keep
surface to boundary layer cyclone relatively stationary for the
next few hours just along/south of Long Beach, CA. The cold front
and associated warm conveyor have pressed eastward into far NW
Baja California (state) of Mexico before angling through Imperial
Valley and lower Colorado River Valley. However, the western
branch of the TROWAL and occluded front remain banked up against
the Orange county and San Diego county beaches.=20

GOES-W WV suite shows the core of the upper-level jet remains
south near the San Diego country border with Mexico, allowing for
solid cyclonically curved left exit ascent across much of SoCal
providing solid ascent for updrafts that do develop with the solid
surface/low level moisture convergence. The limiting factor will
likely be unstable air/vertical ascent through convective
processes. MUCAPEs have dropped to around 500 J/kg but are now
mostly driven through cold advection aloft. The upstream
shortwave will dull this advection for a few hours but may allow
the lapse rates to maintain this weak 250-500 J/kg instability.=20=20
As such, updrafts are likely to remain isolated and generally
narrow, though with isallobaric response to the updraft, moisture
convergence should allow for the .75-.9" total PWats (loaded
mainly below 700mb) to support rates of .75-1"/hr.=20

As such, a localized 1-2" total still remains possible for the
next few hours. Naturally low FFG and/or urban hydrophobic
conditions will result in solid run-off and maintain a risk of
widely scattered incident or two of possible flash flooding
through the morning.=20=20

It is also possible (more likely toward 16-18z) that a few
showers/cells may try to develop with some weak clearing through
the Imperial Valley along the western branch of the TROWAL. These
cells would be also similarly slow moving but likely translating
NW rather than NE as with the coastal cells; but there is less
certainty with that evolution and a secondary MPD may be required
if trends continue to improve.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6defLsDhQO-ON-LqODLd4v4g66xlCixSbO2_VOxQBeCuFq2HkSlxnEp1Y3e9UPBfwxAh= InmHHKSqNelNU_uwQNCMueQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34551850 34481788 34071704 33471650 32801624=20
32581627 32531672 32561724 32981753 33301781=20
33581827 33971908 34331893=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Inland Deserts of Southern California and Lower
Colorado River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211330Z - 211930Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded very weak showers
capable of .3-.5"/hr rates. Scattered 1-1.5" totals pose longer
duration flash flooding concerns (3-6hr exceedance).

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows core of deep upper-low has
wobbled over the LA Basin, but a strong upstream shortwave along
the western periphery of the upper-level closed low is digging
sharply resulting an combined effect of tightening the overall
flow across the deep cyclone while keeping the downstream older
center stationary over the next 6-12hr. As a result, the core of
the Atmospheric River will remain focused on NW Baja California
before cyclonically turning (fairly sharply) through the Imperial
Valley into the Mojave Deserts back toward the Tehachapi Range and
southern San Joaquin Valley.=20

CIRA LPW prior to the local outage showed a fairly strong sfc to
850 and 850-700mb signal with 95th-99th percentile signals in each
layer, combine that with some increase in the surface to 850mb
layer from favorable southerly flow off the warm Sea of Cortez and
total PWats remain at or slightly above 1" into the Imperial
Valley and as high as .75" into the San Joaquin Valley. VWP and
RAP analysis suggest strong cyclonic curvature but also 20-30kts
of flux. So while there is sub-100 J/kg of instability, the
vertical ascent through the strengthening western branch of the
TROWAL suggests highly anomalous flux to maintain moderate showery
activity through the deserts. Rates of .33"/hr are more probable,
but an isolated rate of .5" is not impossible. Still, persistent
weakly banded features will result in tracks of 1-1.5" totals in a
3-6hr time period, so any isolated, enhanced vertical cell within
the core may result in quicker stream/arroyo rises. FFG values
being only .5"/hr and less than 1"/3hr and less than 1.5-2"/6hrs)
suggest a few scattered incidents of 'flash' flooding are
considered possible through early afternoon.

While less certainty, there are CAMs suggesting some filtered
insolation may be possible in the morning. Near zero inhibition
through the profiles, suggest embedded widely scattered convective
elements may evolve in the 16-19z time period, particularly closer
to the warmer heat source of the Sea of Cortez across the Lower
Colorado and southern Imperial Valley. Given the digging wave
upstream off the SW CA coast, upstream winds may be favorable for
some potential upstream redevelopment/back-building environment.=20
Will continue to monitor those trends for any additional MPD later
toward the afternoon.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-WjtQ6vmZP70V-mcQSPBPEHSb5UPtn6MaaXF4h2x6fY00XJ7ZrT2AvFASaI-gjDsv3r= 8Ao-f3IcG6w7HoujVkdzYxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36451689 36001550 35231468 34241409 33061394=20
32331426 32491497 32691600 34241623 34841705=20
34971779 35591825 36151792=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222300
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_11Dt4vgOR_QWohFX9tvKqdE6LGVpOCutmRvWnF-mQw0JNZV4L9ax5MtPUIq6Oi9tax_= f7aVUm8MLuTaLbjJuyltsFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222307
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222259Z - 230459Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR= 8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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