ACUS11 KWNS 170153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170153=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Extreme southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170153Z - 170330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storm cluster will continue discrete propagation into the
Oklahoma Panhandle before weakening. Isolated severe gusts will be
the main threat through 03-04z.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has displayed a tendency for
discrete propagation/new development to the southwest, on the
immediate cool side of a slow moving front. Per the recent measured
gusts as high as 78 mph at DDC, the mesoscale environment remains
supportive of severe outflow gusts given lingering steep low-level
lapse rates and a narrow zone where MLCAPE is still near 3000 J/kg.=20
The storm cluster will likely spread into the central OK Panhandle
from now until 03-04z, with weakening expected thereafter as the low
levels stabilize gradually. In the interim, occasional severe
outflow gusts will remain possible, but the area affected and the
duration of the threat are too confined for a watch.

..Thompson/Hart.. 07/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7vWdNAiLf5nYV8yNiGC19voBg68rQCimAbP4iKxjWsAY9DhO0rmYgQ8E1UK7_Cwx1NgJtXIIL= QcXj7bvhr0jpOmg0Sc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37410022 37040054 36730093 36530127 36530163 36740173
37300138 37690091 37770055 37670040 37410022=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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