ACUS11 KWNS 150050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150050=20
SDZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central South Dakota and adjacent
northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

Valid 150050Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
continues.

SUMMARY...As storms spread into south central South Dakota during
the next couple of hours, intensities may begin to wane, but an
additional strong downburst or two remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A linear band of stronger thunderstorm development
persists north through northeast of the Pine Ridge Reservation,
along the leading edge of a conglomerate surface cold pool. This is
advancing eastward into a lingering strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary-layer west of Winner northward into the Pierre vicinity.=20
Although it is not clear that this air mass is characterized by
sufficient instability to maintain vigorous thunderstorm
development, it still appears conducive to an additional strong
downburst or two, before convection weakens. The strong to severe
gust potential could be aided by the downward transfer of momentum
associated with nocturnal low-level jet strengthening as the
boundary-layer begins to decouple.

..Kerr.. 07/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_6WiNpYaezZNC1DAVLabFCmtm-40rU_BF8Lvm6nqycpmBFDERrSbMFXSeuesXJSr8bGOX2dSZ= CNWHemK3r-JbcyDKC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43410128 43890067 44310007 43149963 43080175 43410128=20


=3D =3D =3D
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