ACUS11 KWNS 122004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122004=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast/East-Central CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 122004Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more
convective lines capable of damaging gusts over the next several
hours. Some isolated hail is possible as well.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across the
higher terrain of south-central WY and north-central CO, supported
by large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough.
Persisting westerly flow aloft should result in these storms
eventually moving off the terrain into the High Plains, where strong
heating has resulted in a deeply mixed and modest buoyant airmass.
Expectation is for storms to evolve into one or more
outflow-dominant convective lines over the next few hours, with an
associated threat for damaging gusts. Some isolated hail is also
possible, particularly if storms can maintain a more cellular mode.
This appears most likely across southeast WY in the vicinity of a
weak surface low. Uncertainty regarding the coverage of severe
limits forecast confidence, but convective trends will be monitored
closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YaHzwcET5fbjqir4OaFn06My_9w5HZEffY1KFN76UcORRRlP4os6pikSw9vL6RXeV7ECigAb= nx4S9WTMZWVG7BzpwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 39590513 40900554 41200709 41670732 42170675 42540599
42840498 42840391 42310311 40220230 39020304 38720453
39590513=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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