ACUS11 KWNS 121828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121827=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-122030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...central/northern Louisiana...southern
Arkansas...western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121827Z - 122030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal severe threat to continue through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near an MCV across
eastern TX into portion so LA/AR. Largely, this has remained below
severe limits. Echo tops have increased over the last hour or so
with daytime heating and increasing instability across southern LA.
Overall, flow remains weak except in association with the MCV where
around 20-30 kts of deep layer shear are noted on the eastern
periphery. Some organization may occur with deeper updrafts with
potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. This corridor
will shift north and eastward into AR through time this afternoon.
Overall, this risk will likely remain too localized for watch
issuance.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4SYvgCNuhTFLwvAe3hQ6Urrs8SeY50KVDlqBGsiovBaBOem3FpKrBGdkRYoXMUtk1DdyX1t1f= Tjq3sed873aD4D9Ydc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30599338 31889300 33029326 34289337 34579311 34379197
34039141 33499071 32299018 30779102 30499168 30139225
30219294 30599338=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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