ACUS11 KWNS 120715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120714=20
TXZ000-120945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...parts of south-central and southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120714Z - 120945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Numerous storms with some transient supercells expected
through the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A modest strengthening of a southeasterly low-level jet
has resulted in widespread storm development across southeast Texas
over the past hour. Relatively warm temperatures aloft and moist
conditions through the column should be a limiting factor to large
hail. However, intense water loading within these updrafts could
result in some strong downbursts capable of strong to severe wind
gusts. In addition, small but strongly curved low-level hodographs,
as sampled by the KHGX VWP, will support some tornado threat. The
lack of stronger deep-layer shear will likely limit the overall
threat and thus the need for a watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!918OvnMJuUWWmS3LxLThJJyX6qWWzv88_K2mpgS368W6lwOl4p6ZlrDwi0V_WUVhmc7Fc1dhT= 6TFMKOM7xYXmW_b3Mg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28119666 28209701 29219877 29479892 29779845 30069772
30589638 30769586 30699526 30529464 30099437 29659432
29479438 29079480 28489569 28259625 28179643 28119666=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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