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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1258

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 12 01:06:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 120105
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120105=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0805 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into extreme southwest
    Wisconsin and far northwestern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408...

    Valid 120105Z - 120230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe winds may continue with an ongoing cluster of
    thunderstorms for at least a couple more hours, east of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 408. It is unclear how much longer/far downstream
    the threat will persist.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to produce mainly
    severe gusts while propagating along a baroclinic boundary. Along
    this boundary, 8+ C/km low-level lapse rates and 30 kts of effective
    bulk shear remain, with the DVN 00Z observed sounding showing a
    deep, dry boundary layer in place (extending up to 700 mb). Such
    conditions favor the continuance of an organized severe gust threat,
    with the primary negating factor likely being nocturnal cooling. It
    is unclear how quickly nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer
    will begin limiting severe gust potential, but at least a couple of
    severe gusts may occur as far east as far northwestern IL.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7js4-9WK9cbZdeMZ8gxWas3yLOBs-NsXM59WU8WItGyIXZS5_0vsOB2K5vTNvAInvFfZgvEzN= 1gDTG7W2ATclAG4vo0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42109278 42559240 42829200 42939141 42458947 42238911
    41988903 41678931 41548979 41569052 41729155 41879226
    41959245 42109278=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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