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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1249

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 11 16:16:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 111616
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111615=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-111815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1249
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast VA into Northeast NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111615Z - 111815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may produce
    gusty winds and small hail through the afternoon. The severe risk is
    expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
    developed early this afternoon as strong heating of a very moist
    airmass has resulted in weak to moderate destabilization across the
    region. Modest mid/upper west/southwesterly flow resides over the
    region as an upper trough lifts northeast across the Eastern
    Seaboard today. This is supporting effective shear magnitudes around
    20-25 kt, allowing for transient organized cells. Weak midlevel
    lapse rates and modest shear will likely limit longevity of any
    stronger/better organized cells. Nevertheless, cool temperatures
    aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb) and steepened low-level lapse rates
    could allow for gusty winds and small hail with the more intense
    cells. The severe risk is expected to remain low overall, and a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wXc1Em_1_IcG0-UtfF3nVY1OS0jdYSLCLnCKGlt4TWIiHPVys6KOc2JweocXR1AYVkbuzz1x= jjLvNfvhMTx4iqBssY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 37067726 37007608 36447561 35367565 34887648 34877679
    35217742 36437801 36817789 36927776 37067726=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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