ACUS11 KWNS 102234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102233=20
TXZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...part of west central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

Valid 102233Z - 102330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
continues.

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development near the higher
terrain of Mexico, to the west of Del Rio, may pose increasing risk
for strong surface gusts and perhaps large hail across the Texas
side of the Rio Grande River by 7-9 PM CDT, if not earlier. A new
severe weather watch likely will be needed.

DISCUSSION...One supercell propagating off the Davis Mountains has
recently propagated eastward, to the east of the Terrell County
Airport. It appears to have undergone some weakening, perhaps due
to the influence of inhibition associated with the warm elevated
mixed-layer air, and low-level convergence appears focused across
the higher terrain of Mexico to the west-northwest of Del Rio, where
new thunderstorm activity is initiating and rapidly intensifying.=20
However, persistent 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2
mb have been noted in the 21-22Z surface observations along the Rio
Grande River, from Del Rio southward. This is where strong heating
has contributed to a modestly deep boundary-layer (including
temperature/dew point spreads on the order of 30 F) with large CAPE
around 3000 J/kg.=20=20

Even if the intensity of the northern cell is not maintained, there
appears potential for considerable further upscale growth off the
higher terrain of Mexico during the next couple of hours,
accompanied by strengthening and consolidating outflow. In the
presence of modestly sheared but weak (around 10-15 kt) westerly
ambient mean flow, this will tend to spread across the river, with
potential for continuing thunderstorm development along its gust
front.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59So_96zaBE-qYwBaJhXM7roCcsJFEs7wyAc9DLqbm5zvJID21Nd4wOzHKNXb5mBswSUh4f11= kYIkZP2wAfZpS0lJ98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30320260 30470157 29940061 29640028 29010048 28590166
28760248 29120275 29300260 29810244 30050256 30320260=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)