ACUS11 KWNS 101843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101843=20
NCZ000-101945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101843Z - 101945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Primarily strong gusts (40-55 mph) likely but localized
severe gusts possible (55-65 mph) through 5 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm band with an associated MCV
is moving northeast around 45 kt across eastern North Carolina.=20
Broken cloud cover ahead of the ongoing storms is acting to temper
heating with lower 80s deg F temperatures being observed within a
seasonably moist airmass (lower 70s dewpoints). A 53-kt gust was
recorded at 1739z at the Wilmington ASOS (KILM). The Wilmington
WSR-88D VAD showed a rear-inflow jet with flow in the 1-3 km layer
increasing from 25-35 kt to 50-60 kt. This corresponding increase
in flow coincided with the passage of the thunderstorm band. Given
a sufficiently destabilized airmass across the coastal plain and
barrier islands, it is plausible the strong to severe wind threat
will continue through much of the afternoon as this activity
continues northeastward. The overall limited spatial coverage of
60+ mph gusts will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch
issuance.

..Smith/Mosier.. 06/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Usw-zVqzCFAY-aqxKIL910sdv15ldzKvqZ-fkWFV7CTvo_c7tQEFCqET6aW0INTt5sGeeCQ0= jRB7MXHaPWQ2d4-Vtg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34827874 34997884 35207867 36497624 36447563 36257537
35257525 34537633 34277722 34287748 34827874=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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