ACUS11 KWNS 100121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100120=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-100245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

Valid 100120Z - 100245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
continues.

SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an MCS is underway, with severe gusts
becoming the main threat, though an instance of severe hail is
possible. The severe threat may expand into far western TX, where a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Supercells and multicells have been growing upscale
into an MCS based on recent MRMS mosaic radar imagery. KFDX radar
data also shows coherent, bowing inbound velocities exceeding 50 kts
under 500 m above ground level, suggesting that potentially severe
gusts may become the predominant hazard over the next few hours.
Large hail could still occur with the deeper storm cores. With
continued upscale growth, MCS propagation should take a more
rightward turn to the southeast, into western TX, along an 850 mb
thermal gradient, where low-level moisture is also maximized. As
such, a downstream issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
probably be needed in the next hour or two.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8X4RmZypFf3p8vpUuiKMrv2zR6Km7a98KGUsgLIHpldLBGY7ftg3IronLhliP9aeWr-T_XK8e= aKm2c2qkcToPJC4qZI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34000476 34920465 35460444 35610349 35310248 34590197
33840198 33310227 33270274 33660391 34000476=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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