ACUS11 KWNS 092255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092254=20
TXZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092254Z - 100030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop this evening, with severe
wind and hail a concern. A WW issuance may be needed if greater
storm coverage becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...Attempts of convective initiation have been noted amid
an agitated CU field along a remnant outflow boundary amid afternoon
peak heating. It is possible that multiple storms may develop over
the next few hours. Should this occur, 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40
kts of effective bulk shear will promote the maturation of
supercells atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer. Severe wind and
hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The strongest of
supercells could produce hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Therefore, if the development of multiple supercells becomes
apparent, a WW issuance may eventually be needed.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OX9ucBxeGktoiAACF8DD6zk0ntjqYN_GQPadJ40mcG29VbiWQYMuYIqC80-HIHO8NpaxklCq= 2Dkn_Gr0xiQ3qG42mQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32390191 32010060 31399970 30809921 30459923 30319966
30290039 30680102 31190164 31770204 32390191=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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